FY07-09 proposal 198910700
Jump to Reviews and Recommendations
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Statistical Support For Salmonid Survival Studies |
| Proposal ID | 198910700 |
| Organization | University of Washington |
| Short description | Improve monitoring and evaluation capabilities by developing state-of-the-art study designs and analysis tools to estimate juvenile and adult salmonid survival and survival relationships. Provide statistical guidance to investigators in the Northwest. |
| Information transfer | This task provides statistical support to Columbia Basin investigators requesting assistance with the design and analysis of tagging studies. Efforts include development of new tagging models to address advances in technology and research questions, sample size calculations, guidance on release and recapture designs, assuring proper statistical methods are used in data analysis, modifying statistical software to accommodate unique analysis requirements, and the review of technical reports. All these efforts are to ensure that the maximum information can be reliably extracted from tagging studies funded under the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program. Support is provided to federal and state agencies, First Nations, and public utility districts upon request. In addition, this project provides technology transfer through: (a) statistical software programs and documentation available publicly on the internet, (b) graduate student theses and dissertations, (c) scientific peer-reviewed articles, (d) BPA technical reports, (f) presentations, workshops, and instruction to the fisheries community, and (g) statistical consulting and guidance on the design and analysis of tagging studies. Outreach also includes quarterly publication of Salmon Insider newsletter, available on the internet or through e-mail subscription. |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator | |
Contacts
| Contact | Organization | |
|---|---|---|
| Form submitter | ||
| John Skalski | University of Washington | jrs@cbr.washington.edu |
| All assigned contacts | ||
| Cindy Helfrich | University of Washington | cindy@cbr.washington.edu |
| John Piccininni | jppiccininni@bpa.gov | |
| John Skalski | University of Washington | jrs@cbr.washington.edu |
| Rich Townsend | University of Washington | rich@u.washington.edu |
Section 2. Locations
Province / subbasin: Mainstem/Systemwide / None Selected
| Latitude | Longitude | Waterbody | Description |
|---|
Section 3. Focal species
primary: All Anadromous SalmonidsSection 4. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishments |
|---|---|
| 2005 | Introduced Program ROSTER to estimate downriver smolt survival, ocean survival, upriver adult survival, smolt-to-adult ratios, transport-inriver effects, and delayed mortality from PIT-tag releases. Developed alternative models for fallbacks/straying. |
| 2004 | Developed statistical models to provide joint juvenile-to-adult PIT-tag survival analyses. Added diagnostic and graphical tools to Program USER. Expanded Program SampleSize to include replicate releases in the estimation of mean survival. |
| 2003 | Developed user manuals for all the major software packages (i.e., SURPH 2.1, USER 2.1, PitPro 1.0, and SampleSize 1.0). Debugged errors in programs as users tested the limits of software capabilities. Improved data entry capabilties in SURPH 2.1. |
| 2002 | Expanded Program USER.2 to estimate joint survival processes through hydroprojects or pool/dam passage survival. Released Program SampleSize for single and paired releases and transport-inriver survival studies. Released Program PitPro for PTAGIS files. |
| 2001 | Developed Program USER.1 to provide an extremely flexible and user-friendly environment to create statistical models for the analysis of juvenile and adult salmonid survival studies, especially for radio-tag and acoustic-tag applications. |
| 2000 | Released Program SURPH.2 with improved modeling capabilities, including the automatic ability to test model assumptions and produce more reliable confidence interval estimates. This is particularly suited to paired release-recapture studies. |
| 1999 | Developed a user-specified model development tool that permits investigators to create likelihood models tailored to their research, including radiotelemetry studies involving antenna arrays instead of fixed detection locations. |
| 1998 | Demonstrated the feasibility of estimating smolt survival and passage probabilities using radiotelemetry data. Developed longitudinal statistical analyses to analyze time-varying covariates in smolt survival studies. |
| 1997 | Released Program CaptHist to convert PITAGIS databases to formats suitable for survival estimation. Also developed batch routines to conduct large, repetitive data analyses of survival studies. |
| 1996 | Developed statistical methods for estimating season-wide survival. Investigated nonparametric methods for improved confidence intervals. Developed statistical models to estimate fall chinook salmon smolt survival and residualization probabilities. |
| 1995 | Produced a PC version of SURPH software and sample size program to design tag-release studies. |
| 1994 | Released Program SURPH and provided a user's manual for statistical analysis of data. |
| 1993 | Completed statistical software development of analysis package--final debugging of computer program. Co-investigator on first Snake River survival studies. Conducted evaluation of hatchery survival studies. |
| 1992 | Extended computer software to include analysis of group and individual covariate effectsl. Proposed "strawman" design for development of PIT-tag facilities on Snake/Columbia River. Developed study plan for a Snake River survival study evaluation. |
| 1991 | Developed statistical models for tag analyses that simultaneously assess ambient effects and individual covariate effects on smolt survival studies. |
| 1990 | Began software development for statistical analyses, and began statistical theory to assess individual covariate effects on survival. |
| 1989 | Developed theory to assess the relationship between smolt survival and ambient river conditions from PIT-tag release-recapture data. |
Section 5. Relationships to other projects
| Funding source | Related ID | Related title | Relationship |
|---|---|---|---|
| BPA | 198331900 | New Marking & Monitoring Tech | Complementary. Provides technical assistance in evaluating new system performance and design of system-wide tag analyses. |
| BPA | 198712700 | Smolt Monitoring By Non-Feder | Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses. |
| BPA | 199302900 | Survival Est For Passage Throu | Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses. |
| BPA | 200008000 | Pacific Ocean Salmon Tracking | Complementary. Consulting with investigators and exploring tagging models for multi-directional movement studies. |
| BPA | 200100300 | Adult Pit Detector Installatio | Complementary. Consulting with action agencies on consequence of design choices on RM&E requirements. |
| BPA | 198201301 | Coded Wire Tag - PSMFC | Complementary. Uses CWT database in tag analyses. |
| BPA | 199008000 | Columbia Basin Pit-Tag Informa | Complementary. Uses PTAGIS database in tag analyses. |
| BPA | 199102800 | Pit Tagging Wild Chinook | Complementary. Developing tagging models to better design wild fall and spring chinook salmon survival studies. |
| BPA | 199105100 | M&E Statistical Support For Li | Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses. |
| BPA | 200300900 | Canada-Usa Shelf Sal Surv Stdy | Consulting with investigators and exploring tagging models for multi-directional movement studies. |
| BPA | 200311400 | Acoustic Tracking For Survival | Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses. |
Section 6. Biological objectives
| Biological objectives | Full description | Associated subbasin plan | Strategy |
|---|
Section 7. Work elements (coming back to this)
| Work element name | Work element title | Description | Start date | End date | Est budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | Develop Methods & Tech. for Survival Analysis | Develop and refine statistical methods, quantitative tools, and performance measures for the research, monitoring, and evaluation of salmonid life history through the hydrosystem. | 12/1/2006 | 11/30/2009 | $872,736 |
|
Biological objectives |
Metrics |
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| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | Provide Direct Statistical Support to NMFS | To provide statistical support to NMFS to conduct smolt survival and transport studies, providing software engineering support for data analyses, statistical model development for field investigations, and peer review and coauthorship of technical and scientific papers | 12/1/2006 | 11/30/2009 | $152,290 |
|
Biological objectives |
Metrics |
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| Manage and Administer Projects | Project Management | Manage and administer project consistent with BPA and University of Washington requirements. | 12/1/2006 | 11/30/2009 | $77,372 |
|
Biological objectives |
Metrics |
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| Produce Status Report | Submit quarterly report to BPA | Status reports will be submitted at the end of each quarter on PISCES, updating the status of work elements and deliverables for the project. | 12/1/2006 | 11/30/2009 | $15,728 |
|
Biological objectives |
Metrics |
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| Produce Annual Report | Submit annual report to BPA documenting activities and accomplishments. | An annual report will be provided to the BPA documenting activities and accomplisments of the previous year. | 12/1/2006 | 11/30/2009 | $26,965 |
|
Biological objectives |
Metrics |
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Section 8. Budgets
Itemized estimated budget
| Item | Note | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personnel | Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, graduate student | $196,837 | $202,742 | $207,432 |
| Fringe Benefits | Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, graduate student | $50,299 | $51,808 | $52,985 |
| Supplies | Services, computer software, noncapital equipment replacements and upgrades | $8,831 | $8,830 | $8,830 |
| Travel | Includes trips to Portland at request of sponsor and onsite visitor parking | $3,708 | $3,764 | $3,548 |
| Overhead | Facilities and administrative costs @ 26% | $67,515 | $69,457 | $70,927 |
| Other | Lease; project located off campus | $33,124 | $34,449 | $35,630 |
| Other | Graduate operating fee | $11,232 | $11,457 | $11,686 |
| Totals | $371,546 | $382,507 | $391,038 | |
Total estimated FY 2007-2009 budgets
| Total itemized budget: | $1,145,091 |
| Total work element budget: | $1,145,091 |
Cost sharing
| Funding source/org | Item or service provided | FY 07 est value ($) | FY 08 est value ($) | FY 09 est value ($) | Cash or in-kind? | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals | $0 | $0 | $0 | |||
Section 9. Project future
|
FY 2010 estimated budget: $354,494 FY 2011 estimated budget: $354,494 |
Comments: Estimates based on continuing objectives and tasks |
Future O&M costs: Objectives, work elements, and budgets may change depending on the results of the BiOp, Remand, RM&E check-ins, and recovery status of salmonid stocks in the Columbia Basin.
Termination date: None
Comments: There will be a continuing need in the Columbia Basin for statistical support for the design and analyses of salmonid survival studies, as technologies for tagging and detection and hydro operations continue to improve and change.
Final deliverables:
Section 10. Narrative and other documents
Reviews and recommendations
| FY07 budget | FY08 budget | FY09 budget | Total budget | Type | Category | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCC FINAL FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Oct 23, 2006) [full Council recs] | ||||||
| $251,228 | $251,228 | $251,228 | $753,684 | Expense | Basinwide | Fund |
| NPCC DRAFT FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Sep 15, 2006) [full Council recs] | ||||||
| $251,228 | $251,228 | $251,228 | $0 | Basinwide | ||
ISRP PRELIMINARY REVIEW (Jun 2, 2006)
Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC comments: This is an excellent proposal that clearly describes an important and useful ongoing project. The relationship of this project to other projects is clearly summarized. The proposal provides a list of organizations that have been provided statistical support from this project The methods are based on sound scientific principles. The project history section of the proposal provides a very impressive and significant list of contributions that this project has accomplished. The results have been reported to the region via a large number of technical reports and peer reviewed papers. There is an impressive history of peer-reviewed publications related to the past activities of the sponsors. Past performance indicates that facilities and personnel are very well qualified. The evaluation of the success for most of the project activities is stated in terms of method development, computer program development, hours of consulting provided, and number and quality of journals for publications. Lacking is consulting client satisfaction survey information. Although the consulting load and presumable return of clients provides indirect evidence of satisfaction, there may be valuable information for improving quality that may be obtained by surveying all clients, not only those who return regularly. Sponsors should conduct a survey of consulting clients to obtain evidence of satisfaction and to provide information for quality improvement in the future and report the results of this survey in future proposals.
ISRP FINAL REVIEW (Aug 31, 2006)
Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC comments: This is an excellent proposal that clearly describes an important and useful ongoing project. The relationship of this project to other projects is clearly summarized. The proposal provides a list of organizations that have been provided statistical support from this project The methods are based on sound scientific principles. The project history section of the proposal provides a very impressive and significant list of contributions that this project has accomplished. The results have been reported to the region via a large number of technical reports and peer reviewed papers. There is an impressive history of peer-reviewed publications related to the past activities of the sponsors. Past performance indicates that facilities and personnel are very well qualified. The evaluation of the success for most of the project activities is stated in terms of method development, computer program development, hours of consulting provided, and number and quality of journals for publications. Lacking is consulting client satisfaction survey information. Although the consulting load and presumable return of clients provides indirect evidence of satisfaction, there may be valuable information for improving quality that may be obtained by surveying all clients, not only those who return regularly. Sponsors should conduct a survey of consulting clients to obtain evidence of satisfaction and to provide information for quality improvement in the future and report the results of this survey in future proposals.