FY07-09 proposal 199105100

Jump to Reviews and Recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleM&E Statistical Support For Life-Cycle Studies
Proposal ID199105100
OrganizationUniversity of Washington
Short descriptionDevelop statistical methods for monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provide added-value analyses and statistical support on regional fisheries issues. Provide smolt migration timing predictions on the internet.
Information transferThis project supports the need to have the "best available" scientific information accessible to the BPA, fisheries community, decision-makers, and public by analyzing historical tagging data to investigate smolt outmigration dynamics, salmonid life histories and productivity, and providing real-time analysis to monitor outmigration timing for use in water management and fish operations of the hydrosystem. To support real-time monitoring and provide information dissemination, the project provides real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing at 10 Snake and Columbia River dam sites. This information is coupled with travel time information and barging predictions in the Snake River Basin. Daily updates are provided for yearling and subyearling chinook, steelhead, and sockeye from April through September of each year since 1994. These predictions, along with supporting information, can be retrieved and independently analyzed using interactive software and graphs on the internet. This project also provides value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships without the tremendous costs of additional field studies. Finally, this project provides statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed bassis. These efforts are used to provide BPA with independent assessment capabilities and provide technology transfer to regional investigators. Technology transfer also includes (a) peer-reviewed publications, (b) BPA technical reports, (c) graduate student theses and dissertations, (c) statistical consulting and guidance, and (d) presentations and workshops.
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
Contacts
ContactOrganizationEmail
Form submitter
John Skalski University of Washington jrs@cbr.washington.edu
All assigned contacts
Cindy Helfrich University of Washington cindy@cbr.washington.edu
John Skalski University of Washington jrs@cbr.washington.edu
Rich Townsend University of Washington rich@u.washington.edu

Section 2. Locations

Province / subbasin: Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide

LatitudeLongitudeWaterbodyDescription

Section 3. Focal species

primary: All Anadromous Salmonids

Section 4. Past accomplishments

YearAccomplishments
2005 Updated CWT estimates of smolt-to-adult ratios for 90 Columbia Basin hatcheries, and smolt survivals and travel times for 20 hatchery stocks. Developed interactive database of performance measures for user-specified summaries on status and trends.
2004 Developed webpage on adult fallback rates of salmonids at Bonneville Dam using PIT-tag data. Compiled historical information on annual flows (since 1950s) and dissolved gas levels (since mid-1980s) and performance compliance at 10 Columbia Basin dams.
2003 Completed compilation of smolt travel time and survival estimates from PIT-tag releases, mid-1990s to 2002. Compiled adult escapement data and associated NOAA interim recovery goals for 24 stocks and tributaries in the Columbia Basin.
2002 Compiled estimates and standard errors on smolt-to-adult ratios using CWT recoveries for 90 Columbia Basin hatcheries from the 1970s to the present. Improved anaIytical data on DART. Assisted NMFS in developing multidimensional decision rules.
2001 Evaluated proposed statistical tests for recovery in the NMFS RPA based on annual estimates of smolt survival. Examined statistical bias of treatment/control return numbers and developed bias-corrected estimators.
2000 Completed synthesis and comparison of smolt survival estimates generated with different technologies and experimental protocols. Assessed efficiency of adult PIT-tag detection facilities at BON on transportation evaluation and ocean survival estimates.
1999 Assessed with USGS the feasibility of using hatchery rearing information to evaluate smolt quality and subsequent downriver migration performance. Assessed validity of using Rice Island PIT-tag recoveries in estimating smolt survival through Bonneville.
1998 Studied relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag, and balloon-tag studies in explaining LGR project survival for smolts.
1997 Studied effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of fish guidance efficiency and spill effectiveness from PIT-tag data, and estimation of season-wide survival rates and smolt growth rates. Added Redfish Lake salmonids to RealTime.
1996 Internet access expanded to include historical run-timing and flow data at all major hydroprojects and in-season PIT detections for NMFS Snake River ESUs passing through hydroprojects. Program RealTime linked with CRiSP model (Project 8910800).
1995 Expanded RealTime Passage Index Forecaster to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam based on FPC passage indices. Recommended on statisticals models for transportation benefit analyses.
1994 Developed and tested Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time.
1993 Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems.
1992 Report on "strawman" smolt montioring design for the Snake/Columbia river systems. This strawman became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River.
1991 Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and difficulties in establishing travel time relationship with existing data.

Section 5. Relationships to other projects

Funding sourceRelated IDRelated titleRelationship
BPA 198910800 Modeling & Eval Supp/Crisp Complementary. Analysis results from this project are used in the CRiSP modeling.
BPA 198910700 Statistical Support For Salmon Complementary. This project uses the analytical mark-recapture models developed for RM&E reporting.
BPA 198810804 Streamnet (CIS/NED) Complementary. Adult escapement data used to monitor recovery and compliance with NOAA targets.
BPA 200207700 Estuary/Ocean Rme Support Complementary. Providing statistical consulting on RM&E designs based on experience from this project.
BPA 200300700 Lwr Col River/Est Eco Monitor Complementary. Providing statistical consulting on RM&E designs based on experience from this project.
BPA 199601900 Technical Management Team (TMT Complementary. This project posts RM&E hydro results on the DART website for public access.

Section 6. Biological objectives

Biological objectivesFull descriptionAssociated subbasin planStrategy

Section 7. Work elements (coming back to this)

Work element nameWork element titleDescriptionStart dateEnd dateEst budget
Analyze/Interpret Data Provide RealTime Predictions Provide in-season, real-time forecasting of the outmigration status of a number of PIT-tagged and indexed smolts at dams on the Columbia, Snake and Mid-Columbia Rivers. Forecasts are provided on DART through the internet. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $324,063
Biological objectives
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Integration of Performance Measure Results Performance measures are required to accurately assess recovery progress. This work element provides internet access to performance measures and status and trends information, i.e., smolt survivals, travel times, enviromental (flow, temperature, and dissolved gas) targets and performance, adult migration and harvest, and habitat restoration. Summaries will be provided via the internet. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $832,760
Biological objectives
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Provide statistical review of, or stat. assistance for, community research proposals This project provides independent statistical analysis of hydro operations, fish migrations, adult returns, flow augmentation, and salmonid recovery status. Activities include technical peer review of reports and study designs proposed for RM&E and evaluation of the efficiency, validity, and precision of proposed study designs. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $183,860
Biological objectives
Metrics
Produce Annual Report Summarize Project Activities and Accomplishments Project activities and accoumplishments will be reported on an annual basis. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $43,598
Biological objectives
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Produce Quarterly Report Quarterly reports will be submitted via PISCES documenting progress on project tasks. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $15,392
Biological objectives
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Project Management This task provides for the management and adminstration of the project. 1/1/2007 12/31/2009 $57,172
Biological objectives
Metrics

Section 8. Budgets

Itemized estimated budget
ItemNoteFY07FY08FY09
Personnel Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, and graduate student $254,596 $262,233 $270,100
Fringe Benefits Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, and graduate student $65,951 $67,930 $69,968
Supplies Services, computer software, noncapital equipment replacements and upgrades $10,830 $10,830 $10,830
Travel Includes trips to Portland at request of sponsor and onsite visitor parking $3,107 $3,159 $3,211
Other Lease; project located off campus $40,404 $40,404 $40,404
Other Graduate operating fee $11,232 $11,457 $11,686
Overhead Facilities and administrative costs @ 25% $86,966 $89,479 $92,068
Totals $473,086 $485,492 $498,267
Total estimated FY 2007-2009 budgets
Total itemized budget: $1,456,845
Total work element budget: $1,456,845
Cost sharing
Funding source/orgItem or service providedFY 07 est value ($)FY 08 est value ($)FY 09 est value ($)Cash or in-kind?Status
Totals $0 $0 $0

Section 9. Project future

FY 2010 estimated budget: $511,222
FY 2011 estimated budget: $511,222
Comments: Estimates based on continuing objectives and tasks

Future O&M costs: Objectives, work elements, and budgets may change depending on the results of the BiOp, Remand, RM&E check-ins, and recovery status of salmonid stocks in the Columbia Basin.

Termination date: None
Comments: There will be continuing need for the statistical support provided by this project as long as the need for monitoring and evaluation of salmonid stocks and recovery plans continues in the Columbia Basin. In addition, this project provides real-time predictions for salmonid outmigrations and statistical support on regional fisheries issues.

Final deliverables:

Section 10. Narrative and other documents


Reviews and recommendations

FY07 budget FY08 budget FY09 budget Total budget Type Category Recommendation
NPCC FINAL FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Oct 23, 2006) [full Council recs]
$414,388 $414,388 $414,388 $1,243,164 Expense Basinwide Fund
NPCC DRAFT FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Sep 15, 2006) [full Council recs]
$414,388 $414,388 $414,388 $0 Basinwide

ISRP PRELIMINARY REVIEW (Jun 2, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This is a high priority project deserving support. The proposal provides an extensive background and justification of the technical and scientific background. The Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) calls for status and trends monitoring for the hydrosystem, tributaries, estuary, and harvest. This project addresses these issues by providing in-season and post-season evaluation of smolt outmigration success, adult return information, stream escapement, habitat mitigation activities, and harvest. There appears to be collaboration with a number of other projects (six BPA projects indicated), but linkage is only generally described. The history is extremely well documented indicating significant benefits and accomplishments. Nevertheless the following comments from the most recent ISRP review still apply: “The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. The response provides information on clients and contributions. The project provides a valuable service. The ISRP suggests that in the future a summary of the following be provided in support of proposals: 1) data on the amount and nature of use of electronic data and analyses posted on the web, 2) responses to satisfaction surveys by internet users, 3) number of requests for analyses and the time taken to respond to those requests.” These comments are still applicable including the request for information concerning use and satisfaction by users. Only a response to (3)(the number of project requests and the number of hours spent in responding to those requests) was included in this proposal. It would still be useful to include recommendations # (1)&(2). The ISRP notes that such activities would also provide feedback for quality improvement of this ongoing project.


ISRP FINAL REVIEW (Aug 31, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This is a high priority project deserving support. The proposal provides an extensive background and justification of the technical and scientific background. The Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) calls for status and trends monitoring for the hydrosystem, tributaries, estuary, and harvest. This project addresses these issues by providing in-season and post-season evaluation of smolt outmigration success, adult return information, stream escapement, habitat mitigation activities, and harvest. There appears to be collaboration with a number of other projects (six BPA projects indicated), but linkage is only generally described. The history is extremely well documented indicating significant benefits and accomplishments. Nevertheless the following comments from the most recent ISRP review still apply: “The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. The response provides information on clients and contributions. The project provides a valuable service. The ISRP suggests that in the future a summary of the following be provided in support of proposals: 1) data on the amount and nature of use of electronic data and analyses posted on the web, 2) responses to satisfaction surveys by internet users, 3) number of requests for analyses and the time taken to respond to those requests.” These comments are still applicable including the request for information concerning use and satisfaction by users. Only a response to (3)(the number of project requests and the number of hours spent in responding to those requests) was included in this proposal. It would still be useful to include recommendations # (1)&(2). The ISRP notes that such activities would also provide feedback for quality improvement of this ongoing project.