FY07-09 proposal 200600800

Jump to Reviews and Recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleEvaluation of the Biological Effects of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s Mainstem Amend. on the Fisheries Upstream & Downstream of Hungry Horse & Libby Dams, MT (Renumbered fr 200715200)
Proposal ID200600800
OrganizationMontana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks
Short descriptionThe Northwest Power and Conservation Council (Council) directed the region to test, implement, and evaluate an interim summer operation, called for by the Mainstem Amendments, that implement new drafting limits at Hungry Horse and Libby Dams.
Information transferThe expected outcomes of this project will be quantitative and qualitative. Data generated by this project will include model derivations supported by primary field data. Use of these data will be stored electronically at MFWP and backed up on CD while the project is in progress and will be available with approval after the results are published. Data will be managed by MFWP locally in printed and electronic form and backed up regularly. Public access will be available through printed reports, peer review journals and postings on the BPA web page. Information will be published in project reports and journal publications, and archived in computer files and hard copies.
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
Contacts
ContactOrganizationEmail
Form submitter
Brian Marotz Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks bmarotz@mt.gov
All assigned contacts
Brian Marotz Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks bmarotz@mt.gov
Clint Muhlfeld Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks cmuhlfeld@mt.gov
Ryan Sylvester Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks rysylvester@mt.gov

Section 2. Locations

Province / subbasin: Mountain Columbia / Flathead

LatitudeLongitudeWaterbodyDescription
Hungry Horse Reservoir Hungry horse Reservoir and Flathead River downstream
Lake Koocanusa Libby Reservoir and Kootenai River downstream

Section 3. Focal species

primary: Westslope Cutthroat
primary: Bull Trout
secondary: Burbot
secondary: White Sturgeon Kootenai River DPS
secondary: Rainbow Trout
secondary: Mountain Whitefish

Section 4. Past accomplishments

YearAccomplishments

Section 5. Relationships to other projects

Funding sourceRelated IDRelated titleRelationship
BPA 199500400 Libby Mitigation Program Shares personnel, data and equipment
BPA 199101903 Hungry Horse Mitigation Program Shares personnel, data, and equipment
BPA 198806400 Kootenai R White Sturgeon Collaborates on dam operational requirements for species recovery

Section 6. Biological objectives

Biological objectivesFull descriptionAssociated subbasin planStrategy
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition Objective 9. Compare length at age and growth increments of rainbow, westslope cutthroat and bull trout captured below Libby and Hungry Horse Dams via electrofishing to compare alternative system operation strategies. Kootenai Evaluates fish growth in both reservoirs, objective R1, R2 and R3. Strategies associated with fish performance related to environmental factors.
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response Objective 1. Use HRMOD and LRMOD to calculate the amount of physical habitat available for aquatic productivity resulting from reservoir drafts in the Mainstem Amendments at Hungry Horse and Libby Reservoirs. Kootenai Strategies in subbasin objective M1 and R3 include modelling the physical effects of the Mainstem Amendments and other alterantive dam operations. Specifically, strategies attempt to restore hydraulic energy, normative hydrography and physical habitat.
Objective 10. Model factors affecting population Objective 10. Develop conservation theory and methods for effective application of risk-based monitoring of salmonid populations. Flathead Addresses research on resident fish populations called for by the NPCC Mainstem Amendments. Addresses M3,R2, BT1, BT3, WCT1, WCT2 and RW1. Relates to strategies requiring an understanding of factors influencing fish populations and system productivity
Objective 2. Model reservoir biological response Objective 2. Use HRMOD and LRMOD to calculate the biological responses resulting from reservoir drafts in the Mainstem Amendments at Hungry Horse and Libby Reservoirs. Kootenai Reservoir objectives R1 and R3 contain strategies to operate Libby Reservoir to reduce negative impacts on reservoir biota
Objective 3. Assess reservoir age/growth/condition Objective 3. Compile age-growth and condition factor data from annual gill net series to compare actual growth at age under varying reservoir operating strategies to long-term composite growth increments. Relate variation in growth increments to environmental conditions. Kootenai Addresses regulated mainstem M1 and M4 and reservoir objectives R1and R3. Fish related strategies include monitoring growth and survival under various dam operation scenarios.
Objective 4. Update river / reservoir models Objectove 4. Update the Libby Reservoir model LRMOD and Hungry Horse model HRMOD using data from recent years to improve model utility and predictive capability. Also update RIVBIO model. Flathead Models evaluate trophic level responses to dam operating strategies in Hungry Horse and Libby Reservoirs. Addresses M3, R2 strategies to improve hydraulic turnover rates and annual operations to reduce negative impacts of dam operation on reservoir biota
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM Objective 5. Use IFIM models to estimate the biological responses resulting from river flow in the Mainstem Amendments in the Flathead and Kootenai Rivers. Kootenai Strategies under regulated mainstem Objectives M1 and M4 use models to determine operations suited for fish survival, growth and reproduction.
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival Objective 6. Estimate annual salmonid cohort survival, and relate that survival to environmental variables including weekly and daily summer flow variation (tributary and river phase). Kootenai Strategies under regulated mainstem Objectives M1 and M4 use models to determine operations suited for fish survival, growth and reproduction.
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use Objective 7. Use radio telemetry to assess fish locations and movement associated with river flows and ramping rates. Verify IFIM model simulations by using radio telemetry to assess fish locations and movement associated with river flows and associated ramping rates. Kootenai Relates to strategies under M1 Altered hydrograph, M5 Habitat diversity and Fish objectives.
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival Objective 8. Use migrant trapping (i.e., screw and box traps) and Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tagging to estimate survival and growth of cutthroat, rainbow, and bull trout populations. Kootenai Strategies under tributary objectives T1, T4, T5, T6, T7 and T8. Specifically, movements of PIT tagged fish are related to habitat protection, spawn timing, temperature, habitat preference and hydrograph.

Section 7. Work elements (coming back to this)

Work element nameWork element titleDescriptionStart dateEnd dateEst budget
Manage and Administer Projects Work with model subcontractors, reporting, SOW, budgets Write professional services contracts, negotiate for signature, tack expense vouchers, approve deliverables 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response
Metrics
Other Computer purchase [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $3,000
Biological objectives
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Obtain USACE data, run reservoir models, transfer data files from DAT to Excel [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $15,000
Biological objectives
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Summarize reservoir model output [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response
Metrics
Other PISCES Status Reports PISCES status reports 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $4,500
Biological objectives
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response
Metrics
Other Produce Annual Report [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $25,000
Biological objectives
Objective 1. Model reservoir habitat response
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Work with model subcontractors, reporting, SOW, budgets [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 2. Model reservoir biological response
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Obtain USACE data, run reservoir models, transfer output data files [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $15,000
Biological objectives
Objective 2. Model reservoir biological response
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Summarize biological model output [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $7,000
Biological objectives
Objective 2. Model reservoir biological response
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Reporting, work with model subcontractors, SOW's, budgets [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 3. Assess reservoir age/growth/condition
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Sampling designs [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,500
Biological objectives
Objective 3. Assess reservoir age/growth/condition
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate sampling and equipment use with regional staff [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $1,000
Biological objectives
Objective 3. Assess reservoir age/growth/condition
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Gill netting, scales, otoliths, age fish, digital records of each fish [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $35,000
Biological objectives
Objective 3. Assess reservoir age/growth/condition
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Summarize age / growth / condition data [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $15,000
Biological objectives
Objective 3. Assess reservoir age/growth/condition
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Work with modeling subcontractors [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 4. Update river / reservoir models
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate data needs and modeling needs with subcontractors [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 4. Update river / reservoir models
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Obtain data for subcontractors and assess modeling needs / changes [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $50,000
Biological objectives
Objective 4. Update river / reservoir models
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Coordinate with IFIM modelers, SOW, budgets [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Telemetry and modeling designs [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,500
Biological objectives
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate with IFM modelers and sampling with regional staff [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $1,000
Biological objectives
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM
Metrics
Mark/Tag Animals Radio tag fish [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Model habitat quantity / telemetry data collection [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $20,000
Biological objectives
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze flow data with models and assess / validate with telemetry data [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $10,000
Biological objectives
Objective 5. Estimate biological effects with IFIM
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects SOW and budget [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Sampling and data analysis designs [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,500
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate sampling for population estimates / equipment use with regional staff [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $1,000
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Other 15-20000 PIT tags [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $50,000
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Mark/Tag Animals Electrofishing, PIT tag fish PIT tag fish in Mainstem Kootenai / Flathead 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $15,000
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Electrofishing, PIT tag new fish, process tagged fish, population estimates [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $30,000
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Age fish, population estimates, summarize PIT tag database, lengths and weights [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $10,000
Biological objectives
Objective 6. Estimate salmonid cohort survival
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Manage staff for data collection, SOW, budget, reporting [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Telemetry and sampling designs [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,500
Biological objectives
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use
Metrics
Install Fish Monitoring Equipment Install / place remote radio tag detection stations [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $25,000
Biological objectives
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use
Metrics
Mark/Tag Animals Electrofishing and radio tag fish [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Track radio tagged fish, aerial flights, habitat usage, movements, data in ARCVIEW [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $160,000
Biological objectives
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data GIS work and data analysis, map making [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $25,000
Biological objectives
Objective 7. Assess fish movement & habitat use
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Reporting, SOW, budgets, manage staff for remote PIT tag station use / maintenance [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate sampling and equipment use for remote PIT tag stations maintenance with regional staff [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Develop maintenance schedule, sampling and data analysis designs [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $3,500
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Produce Design and/or Specifications Remote PIT tag station specs for BIOMARK, site preparation [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2007 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Install Fish Monitoring Equipment Install remote PIT tag stations and power supplies [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $120,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Mark/Tag Animals Population estimates in tributaries, electrofishing, PIT tag fish PIT tag fish in tributaries 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $40,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Population estimates, download data from remote stations, database management, redd counts, PIT tag fish [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $141,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Calculate survival, growth, and other metrics associated with remote PIT tag stations and redd count data [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $25,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Operate and Maintain Habitat/Passage Maintain remote PIT tag stations, data downloads, propane / battery replacements [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $50,000
Biological objectives
Objective 8. Migrant trapping to estimate survival
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects Manage staff for sampling, SOW, budgets, performance appraisals [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Sampling and data analysis designs [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,500
Biological objectives
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate sampling and equipment use with regional staff [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition
Metrics
Mark/Tag Animals PIT and radio tag fish in Mainstem and tributaries [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $5,000
Biological objectives
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition
Metrics
Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Population estimates, scale /otolith collection / preparation, age fish, digitize [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $50,000
Biological objectives
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Summarize age / growth / condition data from population estimates and other Mainstem sampling [Work Element Description Not Entered] 10/1/2006 9/30/2009 $15,000
Biological objectives
Objective 9. Assess river age/growth/condition
Metrics
Manage and Administer Projects 10a Develop VPM model to isolate factors controlling bull trout populations. Collaboration with MSU to improve tools for monitoring population effects. 7/1/2007 6/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 10. Model factors affecting population
Metrics
Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Develop /refine modeling methods [Work Element Description Not Entered] 7/1/2007 6/30/2009 $4,000
Biological objectives
Objective 10. Model factors affecting population
Metrics
Coordination Coordinate between MSU and MFWP [Work Element Description Not Entered] 7/1/2007 6/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 10. Model factors affecting population
Metrics
Analyze/Interpret Data Model development / computer programming and data analysis Model development / computer programming and data analysis 7/1/2007 6/30/2009 $90,000
Biological objectives
Objective 10. Model factors affecting population
Metrics
Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report Annual report by MSU will beincorporated into annual report MSU will produce an annual report and the report / results will be incorporated into the Mainstem Amendment annual report 7/1/2007 6/30/2009 $2,000
Biological objectives
Objective 10. Model factors affecting population
Metrics

Section 8. Budgets

Itemized estimated budget
ItemNoteFY07FY08FY09
Personnel 3.75 FTE $165,000 $165,000 $165,000
Fringe Benefits Included in Personnel $0 $0 $0
Supplies [blank] $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
Travel [blank] $25,000 $25,000 $25,000
Overhead 19% of non-equipment items $55,000 $55,000 $45,000
Other Major equipment over $10000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000
Other Communications $1,500 $1,500 $1,500
Other Aerial Flights $15,000 $15,000 $15,000
Other MSU population modeling $50,000 $50,000 $0
Other Dr. Craig Althen, modeling $15,000 $15,000 $15,000
Totals $396,500 $396,500 $336,500
Total estimated FY 2007-2009 budgets
Total itemized budget: $1,129,500
Total work element budget: $1,129,500
Cost sharing
Funding source/orgItem or service providedFY 07 est value ($)FY 08 est value ($)FY 09 est value ($)Cash or in-kind?Status
BPA / MFWP This project shares equipment, personnel, and data with other BPA, MFWP management projects $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 In-Kind Confirmed
Totals $50,000 $50,000 $50,000

Section 9. Project future

FY 2010 estimated budget: $350,000
FY 2011 estimated budget: $350,000
Comments: The duration of this project is uncertain (see below)

Future O&M costs: Project costs should remain relatively stable over the expected 5-10 term of the project, which corresponds to one complete life cycle of the focal species under investigation (e.g., bull trout and westslope cutthroat trout).

Termination date: 2011-2016
Comments: Project should be performed for 5-10 years to evaluate dam operations for at least the entire life cycle of the species in question (e.g., bull trout and westslope cutthroat trout). If, however, we the Council's needs for information change or the Council's Mainstem Amendment operations are implimented in perpetuity, this project would likely terminate. Any project functions deemed important at that time could be absorbed by the ongoing Libby and Hungry Horse Mitigation Programs.

Final deliverables: Data, reports and publications derived from this project will inform policy on the operation of Hungry Horse and Libby Dams in Montana. Results will document how dam operation influences biological communites and habitat conditions above and below the Montana projects. Specific deliverables will quantify the effects of dam operations on fish growth, survival, and production at the population level. Results will also expand on previous research documenting the effects of dam operation on reservoir and river physical habitat and biological responses in lower trophic levels. This will allow for future dam operations to minimize physical and biological impacts attributable to dam operations. Results will benefit resident fishes in upper portions of the Columbia Basin, while at the same time providing suitable conditions for anadromous fish in the lower Columbia Basin.

Section 10. Narrative and other documents


Reviews and recommendations

FY07 budget FY08 budget FY09 budget Total budget Type Category Recommendation
NPCC FINAL FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Oct 23, 2006) [full Council recs]
$396,500 $396,500 $336,500 $1,129,500 Expense ProvinceExpense Fund
NPCC DRAFT FUNDING RECOMMENDATIONS (Sep 15, 2006) [full Council recs]
$396,500 $396,500 $336,500 $0 ProvinceExpense

ISRP PRELIMINARY REVIEW (Jun 2, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This is a well-prepared proposal that rates high marks for all ISRP review criteria. The project is well justified and deserves continued funding. The ISRP previously reviewed this proposal; see ISRP 2004-6, Second Review of Proposal to Evaluate the Biological Effects of the Council's Mainstem Amendments on the Fisheries Upstream and Downstream of Hungry Horse and Libby Dams; www.nwcouncil.org/library/isrp/isrp2004-6.htm. In that report the ISRP recommended continued support for the project and had some suggestions to improve the project: 1. More explicitly plan the strategy for using the existing data and models with updated data and models, and 2. Identify key indicators of trends in biological responses for early judgments about the nature and magnitude of biological effects. The ISRP is pleased to note that the project sponsors responded to these ISRP suggestions by revising Objectives 1 and 2 to more explicitly include the model simulations of reservoir trophic responses and river habitat availability to provide the most immediate comparisons for assessing the biological consequences of the Council’s operation strategy per Mainstem Amendments. The proposal (Objective 5) also emphasizes incorporating benthic community productivity (recolonization rate) into the river models to help inform policy on dam operations designed to benefit the fishery in many river systems affected by hydropower operations. The radio telemetry study (Objective 7) is designed to test the null hypothesis that hourly and daily discharge variation does not influence fish movement. This will be another key indicator of a relatively quick time-sensitive biological response to changes in discharge within the Kootenai and Flathead rivers. They anticipate that a before-after and control comparison could be used as the experimental design to test the null hypothesis. Other comments: Project history: Extensive details were provided in this section and results indicate that the project appears to have achieved many of its objectives. However, we would have expected more for a project that has been continuing this long. A list of technical products and peer-reviewed papers produced would be helpful in this section (e.g. like the list of references given in the preceding rationale section describing the interactions with Dr. Taper's lab, but including the full citations). Have the reservoir models been peer reviewed and published? We couldn't find anything other than a BPA Report, where they are cited. Tasks (work elements) and methods: On page 34, the paragraph at the bottom states a null hypothesis that seems to be unrealistic. The statistical analysis seems inappropriate for the situation. Wouldn't the objective be more appropriately stated as measurement of the effects of discharge variation on behavior of fish? What would be an appropriate statistical test? The proposal says that distances moved would be the measurement used. Perhaps the initial observations might suggest that distance is not as important as location of movement - from where to where? This deserves further thought, particularly from the standpoint of developing recommendations for modification of discharge patterns. So what if the fish do move further? Would we want to do anything about that? On page 41, there is a typographical error in the top line. The word "no" has been omitted from the statement about requirements for Objective 8.


ISRP FINAL REVIEW (Aug 31, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This is a well-prepared proposal that rates high marks for all ISRP review criteria. The project is well justified and deserves continued funding. The ISRP previously reviewed this proposal; see ISRP 2004-6, Second Review of Proposal to Evaluate the Biological Effects of the Council's Mainstem Amendments on the Fisheries Upstream and Downstream of Hungry Horse and Libby Dams; www.nwcouncil.org/library/isrp/isrp2004-6.htm. In that report the ISRP recommended continued support for the project and had some suggestions to improve the project: 1. More explicitly plan the strategy for using the existing data and models with updated data and models, and 2. Identify key indicators of trends in biological responses for early judgments about the nature and magnitude of biological effects. The ISRP is pleased to note that the project sponsors responded to these ISRP suggestions by revising Objectives 1 and 2 to more explicitly include the model simulations of reservoir trophic responses and river habitat availability to provide the most immediate comparisons for assessing the biological consequences of the Council’s operation strategy per Mainstem Amendments. The proposal (Objective 5) also emphasizes incorporating benthic community productivity (recolonization rate) into the river models to help inform policy on dam operations designed to benefit the fishery in many river systems affected by hydropower operations. The radio telemetry study (Objective 7) is designed to test the null hypothesis that hourly and daily discharge variation does not influence fish movement. This will be another key indicator of a relatively quick time-sensitive biological response to changes in discharge within the Kootenai and Flathead rivers. They anticipate that a before-after and control comparison could be used as the experimental design to test the null hypothesis. Other comments: Project history: Extensive details were provided in this section and results indicate that the project appears to have achieved many of its objectives. However, we would have expected more for a project that has been continuing this long. A list of technical products and peer-reviewed papers produced would be helpful in this section (e.g. like the list of references given in the preceding rationale section describing the interactions with Dr. Taper's lab, but including the full citations). Have the reservoir models been peer reviewed and published? We couldn't find anything other than a BPA Report, where they are cited. Tasks (work elements) and methods: On page 34, the paragraph at the bottom states a null hypothesis that seems to be unrealistic. The statistical analysis seems inappropriate for the situation. Wouldn't the objective be more appropriately stated as measurement of the effects of discharge variation on behavior of fish? What would be an appropriate statistical test? The proposal says that distances moved would be the measurement used. Perhaps the initial observations might suggest that distance is not as important as location of movement - from where to where? This deserves further thought, particularly from the standpoint of developing recommendations for modification of discharge patterns. So what if the fish do move further? Would we want to do anything about that? On page 41, there is a typographical error in the top line. The word "no" has been omitted from the statement about requirements for Objective 8.