FY07-09 proposal 199102900

Jump to Reviews and Recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Contacts

Section 2. Locations

Province / subbasin: Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide

Section 3. Focal species

Section 4. Past accomplishments

Section 5. Relationships to other projects

Section 6. Biological objectives

Section 7. Work elements (coming back to this)

Section 8. Budgets

Itemized estimated budget

Total estimated FY 2007-2009 budgets

Cost sharing

Section 9. Project future

Future O&M costs:

Termination date: 5/31/2011
Comments: Assuming no additional data are collected in 2010.

Final deliverables: Objective 1 Final Work Product: We will write a journal manuscript on biological and physical factors in the Snake River that affect juvenile life history timing of wild fall Chinook salmon. If the research hypothesis for Objective 1 is true, we expect to find the following. Emergence timing varies by year and is directly proportional to winter-spring temperatures. The timing of parr presence and smolt passage at dams vary by year and are: indirectly proportional to redd counts, CPUE, the number of hatchery subyearlings released, maximum flow, and flow pulse rate. The main finding of Objective 1 might be that wild fall Chinook salmon disperse from natal riverine habitat and pass the lower Snake River dams earlier than observed during the 1990s because adult escapement and densities in the rearing areas increased resulting in density-dependent downstream movement. The implication for adaptive hydrosystem management would be that timing summer flow augmentation and summer spill should be dependent on variability in life history progression opposed to a fixed schedule based on historical data (e.g., June 20 to 31 August). If the research hypothesis for Objective 1 is found to be false, summer flow augmentation and spill could be timed on a fixed schedule. Objective 2 Final Work Product: We will write a journal manuscript on biological and physical factors in the Snake River that affect wild fall Chinook salmon growth, condition, and morphology. If the research hypothesis for Objective 2 is true, we expect to find the following. The density of wild fall Chinook salmon in riverine habitat will increase over time and then stabilize as carrying capacity is achieved at densities similar to those estimated for the Hanford Reach. Growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature, but there will be an interaction between temperature and density dependent factors that cause growth to decrease at a given temperature as density increases. The millions of hatchery subyearlings released for supplementation in May will disperse downstream rapidly into the reservoir and deplete the food supply available for wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. Thus, in contrast to earlier findings by Connor and Burge (2003) smolt growth in the warmer waters of Lower Granite Reservoir will not exceed those observed in the relatively cooler water of the riverine habitat. We will also find that fish in the samples collected during the 1990s were more robust than those in the present-day samples and the P-values will be lower for fish collected in the reservoir than in riverine. However, the P-values calculated from monthly samples collected of fish in the reservoir will increase from May to October within a year because rearing densities will decrease after July and food will be plentiful for the fish destined to become reservoir-type juveniles. The main adaptive management implication of Objective 2 results might be that a balance exists between the benefits and detriments of supplementation; supplementation likely increases adult escapement and production, but results in a density dependent decrease in juvenile growth, condition, and body robustness. Harvest or reduced levels of supplementation might be considered. If the research hypothesis for Objective 2 is found to be false, harvest or a reduction in supplementation will be unnecessary. Objective 3 Final Work Product: We will write a manuscript on the biological and physical factors in the free-flowing Snake River and Lower Granite Reservoir that affect the joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam, 1998—2009. We expect to find the following if the Objective 3 research hypothesis is true. The regression model with the best fit for predicting the joint probability of active migration and survival to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam will include the predictor variables mean temperature during the early period of seaward movement in Lower Granite Reservoir (negative regression coefficient), the interaction term mean fork length during the latter period of rearing in riverine habitat x mean temperature during the early period of seaward movement (positive coefficient), and the interaction term mean flow during the latter period of rearing in riverine habitat x mean temperature during the early period of seaward movement (positive coefficient). The interaction terms will function to increase the predicted joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving to pass Lower Granite Dam when temperature is held constant, but fork length and flow are increased. These results would support the adaptive management alternative of increasing flow from the Hells Canyon Complex during the latter period of rearing in riverine habitat in May and June. Increasing flow from the Hells Canyon Complex would be unnecessary if the Objective 3 research hypothesis is found to be false. Objective 4 Final Work Product: We will coauthor a journal manuscript with staff of WDFW, NPT, and the University of Idaho on the post-release attributes of acclimated hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings, directly released hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings, and wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. We expect to find the following if the Objective 4 research hypothesis is true. Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings that are acclimated prior to release into the free-flowing Snake River upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir will pass the lower Snake River dams earlier, take fewer days after release to pass these dams, have a higher probability of actively migrating and surviving to pass these dams, exhibit faster growth and higher condition, and be more likely to express an ocean-type juvenile life history than Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings that are directly released and wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. Moreover, the differences in passage date, travel time, and the joint probability of actively migrating and surviving associated with acclimation will be useful when interpreting differences in the SARs calculated by Schuck et al. (2005) for coded-wire tagged acclimated and directly released hatchery fall Chinook salmon. The adaptive management implications of these findings will be that acclimation is a beneficial process because it reduces the potential for interaction between hatchery and wild subyearlings. Direct releases of hatchery subyearlings, on the other hand, will be viewed as being benign in terms of wild-hatchery fish interactions if the Objective 4 research hypothesis is found to be false. Objective 5 Final Work Product: At a minimum, accomplishing Objective 5 from 2007 to 2009 will provide baseline data for modeling the joint probability of fall Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild combined) actively migrating and surviving from Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam with periodic validation with wild fish data when sample sizes allow. We expect to find the following if the Objective 5 research hypothesis is true and our study continues through 2013. Summer spill will reduce forebay delay at each of the Lower Snake River dams; thereby, (1) decreasing the time it takes fall Chinook salmon subyearlings to pass from Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam, (2) reducing the duration of exposure to warm summer temperatures and predators, and (3) increasing the joint probability of active seaward migration and survival from Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of McNary Dam. Moreover, the shorter travel times and higher probabilities of actively migrating associated with spill will help to explain the variability in the SARs calculated for fall Chinook salmon by staff of the large-scale interagency tribal study started by Marsh and Connor (2005). The adaptive management implication of these joint findings might be that some level of summer spill should be implemented annually. Maximizing transportation will be the alternative to spill if the Objective 5 research hypothesis is found to be false; and spill, travel time, and the joint probability of actively migrating and surviving do not influence SARs.

Section 10. Narrative and other documents

Reviews and recommendations

ISRP PRELIMINARY REVIEW (Jun 2, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This is a well-prepared proposal to continue a project that has been exceptionally productive and well organized. In many respects it is a model proposal. The project is devoted to Snake River fall Chinook and has a proven track record of providing important information necessary to this species' recovery and deserves to be continued. The technical and scientific background is very well written with a clear explanation of the project's history and a persuasive rationale for the work. A point the sponsors may wish to consider is that the use of F1 and F2 generations for supplementation seem ambiguous, and probably inappropriately used here. Is the F1 generation those individuals that are of hatchery-origin, and the F2 those individual born in the wild from the F1 (hatchery-origin) parents? In at least some circles, the hatchery-origin adults spawning in the wild would be the P1 generation; the progeny of these hatchery fish spawning naturally the F1 generation, and their progeny the F2 generation. The proposal does a very good job of relating the work to the FCRPS BiOps, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, and the various COE programs. Subbasin plans aren't mentioned although Snake River fall Chinook do enter the lower reaches of several subbasins. There is a good description of the relationship of this project to other work. The proposal sets a standard for a concise year-by-year summary of the project's history, along with the reports and peer-reviewed publications. The proposal sets an example for others by identifying the adaptive management implications of their investigations. Objectives, hypotheses, and methods are clearly described, along with the timelines for completion. The proposal was very explicit, right down to the sample size and statistical tests in many instances. The methods have a proven track record. One statement that may be in error is that "growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature." Actually, this statement will only be true over the cooler range and if food availability increases in direct proportion to temperature and provides enough to compensate for the increased basal metabolic requirements of the fish that accompany higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, generally above about 18°C for Chinook salmon, growth rate normally declines because of over-riding metabolic demands. In other words, there may be some scenarios in which growth of parr and smolts is inversely proportional to temperature if temperatures are high and food resources are inadequate. An accurate estimation of food availability is needed, especially when making inferences about the potential for reduced growth of wild fish in the face of large numbers of supplemented fish (these comments apply to Objective 2). The project will be thoroughly monitored and evaluated. The statistical analyses have been peer-reviewed (in prior publications) and are suitable. The proposal gives a good description of how the results can feed back into hydrosystem operations decisions, e.g., summer spill. An excellent feature of the proposal is clear identification of how they are going to use their primary data to test prevailing assumptions about the state of nature, and then the implications of the inference for the next steps in developing management options. Most proposals fail to make a clear connection between the studies they are proposing and deciding among (or designing new) management schemes. The results will be made available in reports, peer-reviewed publications, internet postings, and presentations. Plans for long-term storage of data and meta-data are not completely described, but they are assumed to be adequate. The project staff are some of the best publishers among all BPA projects. In summary, this is a fine example of an effective proposal.

ISRP FINAL REVIEW (Aug 31, 2006)

Recommendation: Fundable

NPCC comments: This is a well-prepared proposal to continue a project that has been exceptionally productive and well organized. In many respects it is a model proposal. The project is devoted to Snake River fall Chinook and has a proven track record of providing important information necessary to this species' recovery and deserves to be continued. The technical and scientific background is very well written with a clear explanation of the project's history and a persuasive rationale for the work. A point the sponsors may wish to consider is that the use of F1 and F2 generations for supplementation seem ambiguous, and probably inappropriately used here. Is the F1 generation those individuals that are of hatchery-origin, and the F2 those individual born in the wild from the F1 (hatchery-origin) parents? In at least some circles, the hatchery-origin adults spawning in the wild would be the P1 generation; the progeny of these hatchery fish spawning naturally the F1 generation, and their progeny the F2 generation. The proposal does a very good job of relating the work to the FCRPS BiOps, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, and the various COE programs. Subbasin plans aren't mentioned although Snake River fall Chinook do enter the lower reaches of several subbasins. There is a good description of the relationship of this project to other work. The proposal sets a standard for a concise year-by-year summary of the project's history, along with the reports and peer-reviewed publications. The proposal sets an example for others by identifying the adaptive management implications of their investigations. Objectives, hypotheses, and methods are clearly described, along with the timelines for completion. The proposal was very explicit, right down to the sample size and statistical tests in many instances. The methods have a proven track record. One statement that may be in error is that "growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature." Actually, this statement will only be true over the cooler range and if food availability increases in direct proportion to temperature and provides enough to compensate for the increased basal metabolic requirements of the fish that accompany higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, generally above about 18°C for Chinook salmon, growth rate normally declines because of over-riding metabolic demands. In other words, there may be some scenarios in which growth of parr and smolts is inversely proportional to temperature if temperatures are high and food resources are inadequate. An accurate estimation of food availability is needed, especially when making inferences about the potential for reduced growth of wild fish in the face of large numbers of supplemented fish (these comments apply to Objective 2). The project will be thoroughly monitored and evaluated. The statistical analyses have been peer-reviewed (in prior publications) and are suitable. The proposal gives a good description of how the results can feed back into hydrosystem operations decisions, e.g., summer spill. An excellent feature of the proposal is clear identification of how they are going to use their primary data to test prevailing assumptions about the state of nature, and then the implications of the inference for the next steps in developing management options. Most proposals fail to make a clear connection between the studies they are proposing and deciding among (or designing new) management schemes. The results will be made available in reports, peer-reviewed publications, internet postings, and presentations. Plans for long-term storage of data and meta-data are not completely described, but they are assumed to be adequate. The project staff are some of the best publishers among all BPA projects. In summary, this is a fine example of an effective proposal.