FY 2002 Mountain Snake proposal 28055

Additional documents

TitleType
28055 Narrative Narrative

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleFour-Step Safety-Net Plan for Upper Lochsa River B-Run Steelhead
Proposal ID28055
OrganizationColumbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
NameChris Beasley
Mailing address729 NE Oregon, Suite 200 Portland, OR 97232
Phone / email5037311265 / beac@critfc.org
Manager authorizing this projectDon Sampson
Review cycleMountain Snake
Province / SubbasinMountain Snake / Clearwater
Short descriptionThis project is identified under hatchery RPA 175. The goal of this project is to determine whether intervention is necessary to prevent the decline or immediate extirpation of upper Lochsa River B-run steelhead, and to identify management alternatives.
Target speciesB-run steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) residing in the upper Lochsa River.
Project location
LatitudeLongitudeDescription
46.14 -115.5987 These coordinates demarcate the confluence of the Lochsa and Clearwater Rivers. This proposal applies to the range of the upper Lochsa River inhabited by B-run steelhead.
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agencyAction #BiOp AgencyDescription
NMFS Action 175 NMFS BPA shall, in coordination with NMFS, USFWS, and the relevant state and Tribal comanagers, fund the four-step planning process described above as quickly as possible and, if so determined by that process, implement safety-net projects as quickly as possible at least for the following salmon and steelhead populations: 1) A-run steelhead populations in the Lemhi River, main Salmon River tributaries, East Fork Salmon River, and Lower Salmon River; 2) B-run steelhead populations in the Upper Lochsa River and South Fork Salmon River; and 3) spring/summer chinook populations in the Lemhi, East Fork, and Yankee Fork Salmon rivers, and Valley Creek.

Section 2. Past accomplishments

YearAccomplishment
N/A N/A

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project IDTitleDescription
200001700 Recondition Wild Steelhead Kelts Results of this study will be reviewed as a potential management alternative should management intervention be necessary.
9703800 Preserve Salmonid Gametes Gamete cryopreservation will be assessed for its efficacy as a management alternative for Upper Lochsa River B-run steelhead.
9306200 Salmon River Anadromous Fish Passage Enhancement Data generated by this stidy will be reviewed to determine if habitat alteration of this type is a viable management alternative for upper Lochsa River B-run steelhead.
9107300 Idaho Natural Production Monitoring and Evaluation Data generated by these studies will be used to estimate natural reproduction parameters.
9005500 Steelhead Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers Data generated by these studies will be used to model the probable effects of supplementation on the population growth rate, as a means to assess the efficacy of supplementation as a management alternative for Upper Lochsa River B-run steelhead.

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2002 costSubcontractor
1. Extinction risk analysis. a. Gather existing data. 1 $5,847
b. Perform maximum likelihood analysis. 1 $4,020
c. Agency review/consultation. 1 $2,663
d. Comment inclusion. 1 $7,416
2. Development of intervention strategies/strategy proposal. a. Develop management alternatives. 1 $5,718
b. Agency review/consultation. 1 $2,663
c. Comment inclusion. 1 $5,718
3. Benefit-risk analysis. a. Gather existing data. 1 $8,748
b. Perform analysis. 1 $14,832
c. Identify RM&E components. 1 $5,718
d. Agency review/consultation. 1 $2,663
e. Comment inclusion. 1 $7,416
4. HGMP development. a. HGMP template completion. 2 $0
b. Agency review. 2 $0
c. Comment inclusion. 2 $0
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
4. HGMP development. 2003 2003 $15,798
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
FY 2003
$15,798

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2002 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2002 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2002 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget
ItemNoteFY 2002 cost
Personnel FTE: 9.25 $34,500
Fringe 31.5% $10,867
Supplies Laptop Computer $1,800
Travel $6,860
Indirect 35.9% $19,395
$73,422
Total estimated budget
Total FY 2002 cost$73,422
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds$0
Total FY 2002 budget request$73,422
FY 2002 forecast from 2001$0
% change from forecast0.0%
Cost sharing
OrganizationItem or service providedAmountCash or in-kind

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Recommendation:
Do not fund - no response required
Date:
Sep 28, 2001

Comment:

Do not fund projects 28012, 28015, 28055, 28056, and 28057; an integrated response is needed from the various proposers with participation by NMFS that addresses the ISRP concerns and demonstrates that the Four-Step Safety-Net Process is well coordinated, scientifically sound, and consistent across the basin.

Data available for extinction risk assessments are going to provide no more than crude estimates of risk. Caution is needed with statements and models that include carrying capacity, since it is itself a dynamic value. Confidence in risk estimates will be very low and a source of disagreement. The process must be developed via methods that will ensure buy-in by all agencies. There must be agreement as to what confidence levels are acceptable before an action is taken. Standards need to be defined for the type and quality of data minimally required for such assessments, including population and sub-population structure. Proposing to obtain only review and comment by the associated agencies cannot be expected to produce support for the process.

The process is meant for critically depressed populations. Some populations seem to have been identified for consideration before any process was specified to identify "critically depressed stocks." The process, if initiated, should be designed to include a systematic process for identifying these stocks across the basin.

The process assumes that artificial propagation can provide a safety net for critically depressed stocks when identified. What database is available from the Snake River to provide that confidence? Recent reports including project 199102800 in the Mountain Snake Province, conclude that survival of migrants to Lower Granite Dam declines with increasing abundance. These results may implicate artificially high densities caused by release of hatchery fish as an additional cause for decline of wild fish.

There seems to be misunderstanding of the intent of the process. Use of donor stocks was identified in one proposal as a possible need. How can a donor stock be considered for use under a program designed to preclude extinction of a local population? Another proposal indicated that the process was going to help increase abundance in the target population, and it was described as any other project trying to cause increase in population size with hatchery fish.

Fish populations in the Middle Fork Salmon River have declined as a result of problems in the migration route or ocean. These problems should be solved rather than acting (use of hatchery fish) to further jeopardize fish populations in the Middle Fork. If, at some time in the future it can be demonstrated that these populations are in imminent danger of extinction, and at the same time it can be shown there will be immediate action to fix conditions in the migration route or ocean, it may make some sense to cryopreserve gametes or use short-term propagation as "last ditch" efforts to save some of the genetic material, but a sound technical basis for the required assessment does not exist.

The last step in the process is development of a HGMP for each propagation program. The ISRP's opinion is that the template for preparation of these documents provides little confidence that the strict requirements needed for artificial propagation of endangered species will result. The template calls for detailed information concerning how a hatchery presently operates and some inquiries as to how the potential impact of the program will be reduced. If the 4-step process is to proceed, detailed guidelines for operation of these facilities must be developed.

In summary, the ISRP concludes that the 4-step process is not ready to go forward, and may even be a flawed strategy. Its technical credibility depends on objective selection of populations for safety net consideration, on the availability of information to permit development of strategies that will do more good than harm, and on standards for management of artificial production. In addition, the process does not seem to be coordinated with the subbasin planning effort. None of these elements are in place.


Recommendation:
Withdrawn, defer to SNAPP proposal
Date:
Nov 30, 2001

Comment:

There is a current effort to combine all 4-step process proposals into one unified effort to insure that overlap and redundancy are avoided. Refer to Safety Net Artificial Production Program proposal.
Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Dec 21, 2001

Comment:

Do not fund projects 28012, 28015, 28055, 28056, and 28057; there is need for documentation that the Four-Step Safety-Net Process is well coordinated, scientifically sound, and consistent across the basin.

Data available for extinction risk assessments are going to provide no more than crude estimates of risk. Caution is needed with statements and models that include carrying capacity, since it is itself a dynamic value. Confidence in risk estimates will be very low and a source of disagreement. The process must be developed via methods that will ensure buy-in by all agencies. There must be agreement as to what confidence levels are acceptable before an action is taken. Standards need to be defined for the type and quality of data minimally required for such assessments, including population and sub-population structure. Proposing to obtain only review and comment by the associated agencies cannot be expected to produce support for the process.

The process is meant for critically depressed populations. Some populations seem to have been identified for consideration before any process was specified to identify "critically depressed stocks." The process, if initiated, should be designed to include a systematic process for identifying these stocks across the basin.

The process assumes that artificial propagation can provide a safety net for critically depressed stocks when identified. What database is available from the Snake River to provide that confidence? Recent reports including project 199102800 in the Mountain Snake Province, suggest that survival of migrants to Lower Granite Dam declines with increasing abundance. These results may implicate artificially high densities caused by release of hatchery fish as an additional cause for decline of wild fish.

Use of donor stocks was identified in one proposal as a possible need. How can a donor stock be considered for use under a program designed to preclude extinction of a local population? Another proposal indicated that the process was going to help increase abundance in the target population, and it was described as any other project trying to cause increase in population size with hatchery fish.

Fish populations in the Middle Fork Salmon River have declined as a result of problems in the migration route or ocean. These problems should be solved rather than acting (use of hatchery fish) to further jeopardize fish populations in the Middle Fork. If, at some time in the future it can be demonstrated that these populations are in imminent danger of extinction, and at the same time it can be shown there will be immediate action to fix conditions in the migration route or ocean, it may make some sense to cryopreserve gametes or use short-term propagation as "last ditch" efforts to save some of the genetic material, but a sound technical basis for the required assessment does not exist.

The last step in the process is development of a HGMP for each propagation program. The ISRP's opinion is that the template for preparation of these documents provides little confidence that the strict requirements needed for artificial propagation of endangered species will result. The template calls for detailed information concerning how a hatchery presently operates and some inquiries as to how the potential impact of the program will be reduced. If the 4-step process is to proceed, detailed guidelines for operation of these facilities must be developed.

In summary, the ISRP concludes that the 4-step process is not ready to go forward, and may even be a flawed strategy. Its technical credibility depends on objective selection of populations for safety net consideration, on the availability of information to permit development of strategies that will do more good than harm, and on standards for management of artificial production. In addition, the process does not seem to be coordinated with the subbasin planning effort. None of these elements are in place.

This process would need to be consistent with NMFS's effort post-Hogan and the Council's subbasin planning effort. They need to do a review of what is possible, to demonstrate with data. As proposed and described in the response, the methods are not described in adequate detail for scientific review. Given the uncertainty associated with hatchery intervention, the region needs an agreed upon standard and approach that is subjected to independent peer review and applied across the basin. No agreement exists regarding viability analyses. Intervention should include a wide spectrum of management activities including harvest management, habitat restoration, etc. The tools chosen should depend on the stock status.


Recommendation:
Date:
Feb 1, 2002

Comment:

Statement of Potential Biological Benefit to ESU
Benefits are indirect. Planning process to prioritize populations and determine strategies to alleviate near-term extinction risk.

Comments
CRITFC's SNAPP proposal. Will be integrated with other projects. After coordination is complete under the umbrella process, this project will directly implements RPA Action Item 175.

Already ESA Req? No

Biop? Yes


Recommendation:
withdrawn
Date:
Feb 11, 2002

Comment:

Proposal withdrawn - see project 28061.

BPA RPA RPM:
--

NMFS RPA/USFWS RPM:
175


Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Apr 19, 2002

Comment:

Safety-Net Artificial Propagation Program (SNAPP) (CRITFC #28061) - this proposal was submitted between the preliminary and final reviews by the ISRP, after the deadline. It is currently being reviewed by the ISRP at the special request of Council staff. The above project (#28061) is an integrated version of the following projects that were reviewed as part of the provincial solicitation and review.
  • 28012, Four-Step Planning to Identify Safety-Net Projects for Idaho Steelhead (IDFG/IOSC)
  • 28015, Benefit/Risk Analysis to Promote Long-Term Persistence of Chinook Salmon in the Middle Fork Salmon River (NPT)
  • 28055, Four-Step Safety-Net Plan for Upper Lochsa River B-Run Steelhead (CRITFC)
  • 28056, Four-Step Safety-Net Plan for South Fork Salmon River B-Run Steelhead (CRITFC)
  • 28057, Four-Step Safety-Net Plan for Lower Salmon River A-Run Steelhead (CRITFC)
Council recommendation: The ISRP provided a "do not fund" recommendation for projects #28012, #28015, #28055, #28056, and #28057. The ISRP stated that these new artificial production actions need to be well coordinated , scientifically sound, and consistent with NMFS's effort post-Hogan and the Council's subbasin planning effort. The ISRP stated that the above proposals were not described adequately, lacked standard approaches, and reached no agreement regarding viability analysis. The ISRP, as emphasized that "intervention" should include a wide spectrum of management activities including harvest management, habitat restoration, as well as artificial production. The ISRP is currently reviewing the integrated SNAPP proposal (#28061). Programmatic Issue 9 relates specifically to ESA-based artificial production initiatives for at-risk populations and the Biological Opinion "safety-net artificial production program" -- (SNAPP). As described in the programmatic recommendation, this project, and others that may be developed, need to: (1) explicitly identify the factors causing the decline and currently limiting the population and what actions are being taken to address those; (2) develop a decision-tree that allows for a transparent evaluation of the interventions and includes an "exit strategy" for successful and unsuccessful evaluations; (3) explicitly demonstrate how the initiatives are consistent with the Artificial Production Report of 2000, and will participate in the Artificial Production Review and Evaluation currently underway. The Council understands that Bonneville views this proposal as critical to meeting its BiOp requirements. That being the case, Bonneville is likely to fund the proposal even if the ISRP recommendations continue to be critical of the program. The Council recommends that Bonneville funding be guided by the conditions outlined above and in programmatic issue 9, as well as the recommendations that are made in the ISRP's forthcoming recommendations for the project. The Council recommends that Bonneville contracting actions document how those conditions are addressed.