FY 2003 Request for Studies proposal 200305000

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleEvaluation of the Reproductive Success of Wild and Hatchery Steelhead in Natural and Hatchery Environments
Proposal ID200305000
OrganizationUniversity of Washington (UW)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
NameTom Quinn
Mailing addressBox 355020, 1122 NE Boat St Seattle, WA, 98195-5020
Phone / email / tquinn@u.washington.edu
Manager authorizing this projectTom Quinn
Review cycleFY 2003 Request for Studies
Province / SubbasinMainstem/Systemwide /
Short descriptionThis project enables the comparison of genetic diversity from one generation to the next in natural and hatchery environments for males and females, estimation of the reproductive success of the offspring of wild-hatchery matings in the wild, and determin
Target speciesSteelhead
Project location
LatitudeLongitudeDescription
46.5584 -123.5924 Forks Creek Hatchery
46.5593 -123.5973 Forks Creek
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA
182

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agencyAction #BiOp AgencyDescription

Section 2. Past accomplishments

YearAccomplishment

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project IDTitleDescription

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget
ItemNoteFY 2003 cost
Personnel $390,136
Operating $64,350
Travel $9,780
Supplies $8,400
Capital $21,000
Subcontractor Graduate Students $21,600
Indirect 51.6% MTDC (less equip & graduate student fee) $244,824
$760,090
Total estimated budget
Total FY 2003 cost$760,090
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds$0
Total FY 2003 budget request$760,090
FY 2003 forecast from 2002$0
% change from forecast0.0%
Cost sharing
OrganizationItem or service providedAmountCash or in-kind

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Apr 25, 2003

Comment:

Fundable, a high quality proposal, but it does not specifically address RPA 182 and some questions in the RFS. The study is investigating the natural spawning success of an imported, highly domesticated, steelhead stock and to that extent addresses questions posed by RPA 182. In Forks Creek a decision was made to exclude all future hatchery-origin adults access to the natural spawning grounds after they had access for two return years. Preliminary studies have examined the spawning by these hatchery-origin adults. The current request is to follow the trajectory of hatchery and hatchery x wild lines to examine their fate. Even though the situation is not an ideal model of a supplementation program, understanding the uncertainty addressed here is important for the basin.

This study is different from most of the others because it is investigating pedigrees both inside and outside the hatchery. This adds a dimension that potentially could contribute to understanding the consequences of selection differences between the hatchery environment and the natural environment. It is a fascinating study, with considerable overarching policy implications from the results. It is less clear how the results will assist in parameterizing the extinction risk models used in recovery planning.

Is there inter-breeding with resident trout and if so, how is it accounted for in the analyses?

Does the study address the following RFS questions:

Are there statistically significant differences in reproductive success between natural-origin and hatchery-origin fish when measured at the second generation (F2)? Do F1 progeny with HxW parents differ from F1 progeny with HxH parents in the production of F2 progeny?

Yes

What are possible hypotheses to explain this difference? For example, can the difference be attributed to reduced genetic fitness of hatchery-origin compared to natural-origin fish? Are differences more significant during any specific life history stages?

Yes

What is the likely effect of any difference, in terms of population growth, population recovery, and genetic diversity/fitness in subsequent generations according to the Viable Salmonid Population (VSP) criteria?

Not easily - It is not clear how the results will assist in parameterizing the extinction risk models used in recovery planning because the hatchery origin fish in this study are not native, have inherently maladaptive life history traits in the receiving environment, and have been subject to artificial culture and selection.

Does the proposal address the additional criteria for selecting among well-designed and responsive proposals include:

The degree to which studies are directly applicable to one or more of the following listed ESUs (for which there are currently no reproductive success studies underway): Upper Columbia steelhead, Mid-Columbia steelhead; Snake River fall chinook; and Columbia River chum. Studies not occurring in those ESUs, but with clear applicability to those ESUs will also be considered;

The study site and ESU fall outside of the Columbia basin – the studies conclusions would be applicable to situations in which the HO population is not native or locally adapted to the watershed of the hatchery of concern.

The degree to which the study is designed (or is capable of being extended) to address whether and to what extent any difference in reproductive success of hatchery spawners persists in subsequent generations (beyond F2);

Yes

The degree to which proposals may provide information more broadly applicable to multiple species/ESUs identified above;

Yes

Potential to commit to a long-term study (beyond F2); and

Yes

Overall cost effectiveness

Good


Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
May 14, 2003

Comment:


Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
May 14, 2003

Comment:


Recommendation:
Fundable - highest priority
Date:
Jun 27, 2003

Comment:

Fundable, highest priority. This proposal is applicable systemwide and specifically to the RPA. A huge strength is that the project is well underway and already has two-three generations of pedigree and fitness data available for analysis. The region should take advantage of this opportunity. It will provide data much sooner than other proposals that are in planning stages.

The response is excellent, extremely thorough, and goes beyond addressing the stated review concern to also address deeper underlying issues. The response is persuasive about how it addresses RPA 182. The ISRP has no hesitation in supporting this study. This is the only study that could possibly address the concern of “reverse domestication.” This proposal offers opportunities to monitor essentially all the genetic issues raised in regard to hatcheries. The fact that this is out-of-basin does not temper its strengths and applicability. The Conclusions section of the response provides five good reasons why the proposal should be funded. The letter of support from Fred Utter was persuasive as well.

The responses for this proposal highlight what is analogous to a “positive control,” that is, having effects strong enough that they can be seen. The ISRP agrees with the proponents that it does little good to study something so close to reality that it is impossible to see any real differences for reasons of experimental design or sampling capabilities. Close genetic stocks pose the risk of a Type 2 error. This aspect of their proposal should increase interest in it, not disqualify it. The temporal control that they have is valuable. A spatial one would be good, especially if fish numbers are the main objective, but it is not crucial for the genetic discriminations that are sought.

The ISRP agrees with the sponsor that coordination among projects would add significantly to the work funded by BPA and that annual workshops should be funded by BPA to facilitate this process.


Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Oct 2, 2003

Comment:


REVIEW:
NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review
Funding category:
expense
Date:
May 2005
FY05 NPCC start of year:FY06 NPCC staff preliminary:FY06 NPCC July draft start of year:
$246,301 $254,184 $254,184

Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website