FY 2003 Mainstem/Systemwide proposal 200307700

Additional documents

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35017 Narrative Narrative
35017 Powerpoint Presentation Powerpoint Presentation

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleInventory and Synthesis of Physical Process Models and Methods to Supplement Habitat Conditions Analysis and Subbasin Planning
Proposal ID200307700
OrganizationKWA Ecological Sciences, Inc. and Golder Associates Inc. (KWA/Golder)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
NameKeith Wolf
Mailing address11232 320th Avenue Northeast Carnation, WA 98014
Phone / email4257883402 / kwolf@kwaecoscience.com
Manager authorizing this projectBrian A. Keene, for KWA, Joe Hachey for Golder
Review cycleMainstem/Systemwide
Province / SubbasinMainstem/Systemwide / Okanogan
Short descriptionEngage earth scientists, civil/systems engineers, geomorphologists, hydrogeologists and others familiar with the science of physical processes. Conduct a synthesis inventory of tools and develop a Landform Library, database, web based app. and model.
Target speciesSteelhead, spring chinook, summer/fall chinook, coho, chum, sockeye salmon, coastal cutthroat, and resident fish. Wildlife species will also receive ancillary benefits as well as Sturgeon and Pacific Lamprey..
Project location
LatitudeLongitudeDescription
48.55 -119.94 Project will encompass a cooperative effort with other projects in the Columbia Basin
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA
Action 30 (see narrative)
Action 35 " "
Action 85 " "
Action 133 " "
Action 142 " "
Action 149
Action 150
Action 151
Action 152
Action 153
Action 154
Action 155
Action 156
Action 157
Action 158
Action 159
Action 160
Action 161
Action 162
Action 163
Action 180
Action 183

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agencyAction #BiOp AgencyDescription

Section 2. Past accomplishments

YearAccomplishment
2001 Authorship of Okanogan Subbasin Summary for ISRP (Wolf et., al)
2001 Authorship of Okanogan Limiting Factors Analysis (final draft used in Subbasin Summary) (Fisher and Wolf)
2001 Validation of the Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment Model - Review of the Environmental Template (Task 2, 3and 4) (Wolf and Miller)
2001 Work Plan and Organizational Structure for the Upper Columbia Salmon Recovery Board (Wolf)
2000 Development of Validation process and tasks for the Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment Model - Regional Assessment Advisory Committee (Wolf as RAAC member)
2000 Development of Subbasin Planning and Assessment Template - Regional Assessment Advisory Committee (Wolf as RAAC member)
2001 Assisting Colville Confederated Tribes with overall recovery planning in Intermountain/Col. Cascade Province. Liason with NMFS etc. and public, (Wolf)
1997 Hanford Reach Juvenile Stranding Study. Field Studies, LIDAR and SHOALS survey (Wolf and Wagner)
1998 Hanford Reach Juvenile Stranding Study. Field Studies, mortality estimates, unsteady flow model and simulation development, delayed mortality studies (Wolf, Wagner, PNNL)
1999 Hanford Reach Juvenile Stranding Study. Technical and Policy Lead for multistate and tribal negotiation for interim operating plan (Wolf and Wagner)
1997 Steelhead Spawning Surveys in the Hanford Reach (Wolf and Wagner)
2000 GoldSim development project. Developing and applying a new general-purpose risk analysis simulation system.(Miller, Roberds)
2000 Developed risk-based model for proposed new water supply system, considering risks of poor water quality and excessive system costs (Miller).
1997 Research focused on controls on channel initiation in steep and low-gradient landscapes. Sustained interest in relationships between hillslope and fluvial processes motivates continuing research on sediment prod, & erosion mechanisms (Montgomery)
1998 Leading a research program in Mountain Drainage Basin Geomorphology to develop methods for analyzing and predicting geomorphic response to both natural processes and anthropogenic disturbance.(Montgomery)
1999 Field studies of geomorphic processes and development of digital terrain models for predicting the spatial distribution of erosional processes, channel morphology, and sediment production and routing (Montgomery)
1999 Stream channel stability modeling and engineered treatments (Kammereck)
2000 Successful stream restoration designs and construction for USFWS (Wolf and Kammereck)
2001 Successful fish ladder design and construction project for USFWS (Wolf and Kammereck)
1994 Extensive FEMA and Fluvial Mechanics background - Seven years developing FEMA emergency planning critera for Whatcom County (Kammereck)
1998 Member of CBFWA subbasin technical review team (Wolf)
1989 Supported Department if Energy headquarters in developing a risk-based management model (STRIP) to evaluate alternative program management strategies. This model was used to develop a successful new strategy for WIPP nuclear waste disposal (Miller and Rob
1989 Supported a probabilistic risk assessment of the safety of a proposed tailings facility to be located on paleo-karst in Ireland (Miller).
1997 Developed probabilistic methodology for risk-based pipeline design for proposed trans-Alaska gas pipeline, for Yukon Pacific Corp. This methodology addressed multiple pipeline failure modes, and integrated geotechnical conditions along the pipeline right
1999 Chairman, Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Peer Review Panel, Yucca Mountain Project (Miller)
1999 Supporting DOE oversight of Yucca Mountain Project Viability Assessment. Leading development of next-generation performance assessment model, for DOE (Miller).
1993 Developed the Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment Model (Mobrand)
2001 Chehalis Basin EDT analysis. Fluvial Mechanics and Alternate Strategies (Morris and Mobrand)
1998 Directed groundwater modeling at numerous sites, including a model of flow and solute transport at Hanford, Washington. Developed a model of multi-modal flow at the Yucca Mountain, Nevada site… (Miller)
2000 IFIM Technical Team Invitee (Fernet)
2000 Review of Mid-Columbia Habitat Conservation Plan (Wagner, Wolf)
1971 Team has recognition in all aspects of scientific diciplines to accomplish the project goals and objectives. Team is staffed and has access to experts ifisheries biology, ecology, fluvial processes, geology, geomorphology, civil and systems engineering,
1971 Team has world-wide recognition and extensive experience in risk analysis; advanced systems design; development of probablistic and statistical software and decision-support processes, and are experts in facilitatation of large, complex projects.

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project IDTitleDescription
Columbia Cascade EDT analysis Direct and parallel relationship to provide new capability for subbain planning - project is not intended to extend existing EDT functionality, but provide new overall subbasin analysis and planning capability
Salmon and Steelhead Habitat Inventory and Assessment Project (SSHIAP) Parallel relationship to review capability for dynamic and direct linkages to SSHIAP and/or GIS-based analytical functionality
Okanogan and Wenatchee FLIR Direct input for physical process modeling
RAAC Process EDT Validation and subbasin assessment template

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Objective #1 Phase I - By January 15th, 2003 convene the Core Development Team Contract with BPA and project team members. Host project kick-off meeting and develop detailed project scope for all project participants. This task will cover both Phases. 2 $129,000
Objective #1a Phase I - Produce in interim PPM product for use in comparing treatment options for FY 2004 In order to permit early benefits from the PPM development during FY 2003, an interim product will be developed. 1 $20,000
Objective #2 Phase I- Produce an Inventory and Synthesis of Physical Process Models and Methods Produce an Inventory and Synthesis of Physical Process Models and Methods by Mar 31, 2004. Define bounds of literature. Task b. Assign Resources by discipline (e.g. model development, engineering, geomorphology and biological attributes.) Task c. Report 2 $239,920
Objective # 3 Phase I Develop PPM database Form database workgroup from systems professions on project team. Task a Incorporate Synthesis Report information into database. Access to selected models and annotation reports (how, when and where to use) would be provided through relational database s 2 $137,440
Objective #4 Phase I -Write Synthesis report Core Team Task a. Contact peer reviewers and illicit comments and review Task b. Incorporate finding and produce manuscript for publication Task c. Utilize BPA/NPPC and/or CBFWA for wide distribution of final report 2 $86,789
Objective #5 Phase I -Web-enable Land Form Library Use Goldsim or other suitable platform and Golder Systems Team (web-solutions team) and existing tools to distribute Landform Library database on the web. Task a. Program web-based version of Landform Library Task b. Platform testing and initial 60-day 2 $119,460
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
1. Maintain core development team 2004 2005 $72,017
2. Maintatin project management team 2004 2005 $42,017
3. Produce end-of-year reports 2004 2005 $18,970
4. Maintain linkage with ecosytem diagnosis development (e.g.,EDT) 2004 2005 $25,500
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
FY 2004FY 2005FY 2006FY 2007
$118,504$122,651$50,000$51,750

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Objective 1 Phase II - Develop PPM Procedure, Method/Model 5 Interactive Technical Sessions and individual assignments Task a. Define goals and objectives for PPM model in terms of direct benefit to fish and wildlife. Task b. Develop influence diagram for process and model 2 $0
Objective 2 Phase II - Develop and conduct a user-survey. Method Golder Associates Inc. to develop based on past experience and expertise. Task a. Develop “usability” survey Task b. Conduct 50 user-surveys among subbasin planners, agency, tribal and planning groups to determine what functions are most desirable. 2 $0
Objective 3 Phase II - Document findings and report progress Method Report to Council and Discussions with BPA COTR Task a. Prepare and deliver an end-of-year and Phase II report 2 $0
Objective 4 Phase II Develop the Physical Processes Procedure/Model Method Core Development Team Task a. Merge task 1c. products with programming to produce a subprogram Method-a C++ programming techniques, use GoldSim and other model and appropriate programming tools. 2 $0
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Maintain core development team 2005 2007 $72,017
Maintatin project management team 2005 2007 $42,017
Produce end-of-year reports 2005 2007 $18,970
Maintain linkage with ecosytem diagnosis development (e.g.,EDT)l 2005 2007 $25,500
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
FY 2004
$229,560

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Maintain Web-site 5 $18,500
Maintain Database 5 $18,500
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Objective #1-P3 - Utilize the Phase –II review and develop a work plan for Phase IIL 2005 2006 $5,796
Objective #2–P3 By May 2007, implement mathematical program, integrate with Columbia Cascade subbasin planning process and EDT analysis to complete “model.” 2005 2006 $160,000
Objective #3–P3 – EDT/PPM reach specific and strategic prioritization model runs 2005 2006 $30,084
Objective #4–P3 – Model Validation 2005 2006 $30,084
Objective #5–P3 – Integration of model results with SubbasinPlans 2005 2006 $30,084
Objective #6–P3 – Document PPM program and integration process 2005 2006 $49,000
Objective #7-P3 – Document findings and report progress 2005 2006 $22,980
Objective #8-P3 – Monitor and Evaluate Progress – Maintain process availability to subbasin planners 2005 2006 $22,980
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
FY 2005
$351,008

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Objective 1 Phase II - Develop PPM Procedure, Method/Model 2004 2006 $139,980
Objective 2 Phase II - Develop and conduct a user-survey. Method 2004 2006 $84,500
Objective 3 Phase II - Document findings and report progress Method 2004 2006 $18,500
Objective 4 Phase II Develop the Physical Processes Procedure/Model Method 2004 2006 $139,980
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
FY 2006FY 2007
$18,500$18,500

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget
ItemNoteFY 2003 cost
Personnel FTE: Portions of 5 @ .46 of ea. FTE $410,009
Fringe Labor is fully burdened $0
Supplies 45,000 $45,500
Travel 9,078 $9,080
Indirect 41,109 $41,109
Capital 35,020 $35,020
Subcontractor 223921 $223,901
Other 4,990 for symposim costs, journal publication and relevant professional association dues etc. $4,990
$769,609
Total estimated budget
Total FY 2003 cost$769,609
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds$0
Total FY 2003 budget request$769,609
FY 2003 forecast from 2002$0
% change from forecast0.0%
Cost sharing
OrganizationItem or service providedAmountCash or in-kind
Army Corps. of Engineers Technical Services $0 in-kind
Golder Associates Inc. Support Services, GIS and Administration $0 in-kind
Colville Confederated Tribes Confer with Tribal Council $2,000 in-kind
KWA Eclogical Sciences, Inc. Meeting Space $4,500 cash
Other budget explanation

Cost is for hosting one regional symposium


Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Recommendation:
Do not fund - no response required
Date:
Aug 2, 2002

Comment:

Not Fundable. The proposal is inadequate. This long rambling proposal did not provide adequate detail in the critical Section f. Proposal objectives, tasks and methods to allow review of methods (methods are too brief). In future proposals the proponents might consider reducing the level of effort and propose to produce a directory of and synthesis report containing protocols and recommendations for how and when physical process methods should be used. Proposals must include a monitoring and evaluation section. It is not appropriate for one of the most quantitative proposals to not have a quantitative monitoring and evaluation plan for success of the project.

The proponents propose to link the biological and physical worlds through cause and effect processes and develop an overarching "model" called the Physical Process Method (PPM) process. The project would provide input to the EDT process of evaluating aquatic habitat and predicting effects of habitat changes on anadromous fish populations. The ISRP is not convinced that a highly sophisticated mathematical approach in combination with EDT is appropriate at this time. The sub models are available (and some were listed in the proposal) for many of the processes they want to link. Users may be better off to leave them unlinked and use them as needed, based on the combined expertise of several disciplines working together. An overarching Physical Processes Model may gain little not available from individual models for discrete processes. However, part of Phase 1, a directory of and synthesis report containing protocols and recommendations for use of individual physical process models in subbasin planning, may be useful. The ISRP agrees that a useful form for this inventory would be the style of presentation of protocols in the report "Inventory and Monitoring of Salmon Habitat in the Northwest: Directory and Synthesis of Protocols for Management/Research and Volunteers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and British Columbia" by Johnson, et al. 2001.

Action Agency/NMFS RME Group Comments:

STATUS MONITORING SUBGROUP -- This proposal would engage earth scientists, civil/systems engineers, geomorphologists, hydrogeologists and others familiar with the science of physical processes to conduct a synthesis inventory of tools and develop a Landform Library, database, web based application, and model.

  1. Does a proposal satisfy the objectives of RPA?
  2. This proposal is vaguely linked to RPA 180 in the narrative but no specific linkages are established by the proposal. The proposal is really aimed more at supporting subbasin planning than monitoring, although data derived from monitoring will be necessary to model development and application. Proposal indicates applicability to RPA 180 as it would provide new overall subbasin analysis and planning capability similar/parallel to EDT, SSHIAP, and/or GIS-based analytical functionality. The primary purpose appears to be to provide tools that translate habitat treatments into specific changes in habitat attributes, which could then be used by EDT or other habitat analysis tools. Relevance to RPA 180 appears to be in which habitat attributes might be monitored.
  3. If not, explain what elements are lacking.
  4. Explicit linkage to RPA's 180/181 is lacking. The proposed models/tools to be developed under this proposal would need environmental data developed under RPA's 180/181, in addition to providing some synthesis of the potential and/or realized benefits of restoration actions. The proposal is long on concepts but very sparse on the details, particularly in the objectives section. This project appears to relate more to RPA 183 (effectiveness monitoring) by identifying the physical attributes that might respond to specific habitat actions and predicting the potential magnitude of the responses.
  5. If the proposal partially satisfies the RPA objectives, suggest means or opportunities to strengthen the proposal.
  6. The authors need to integrate biological processes (riparian vegetation) into their conceptual framework of what processes control the environment. Ecosystem processes and structure are not simply based on physical processes controlling the environment. A more holistic conceptual framework would be useful. In addition, treatments need to be expanded to consider passive processes in addition to engineered solutions. Sometimes the best solution is just taking the human disturbance off the land, not just mitigating or engineering around it.
  7. If a proposal is entirely satisfactory, indicate so and note the particular strong points.
  8. Assess the feasibility of the proposed work in general terms.
  9. This proposal is highly ambitious as it attempts integrate significant known and unknown elements of putting together physically-based models and tools to quantify cause and effect in biophysical processes. The direction of their approach is based on physical processes and an engineering-oriented perspective on how to address recovery of watersheds. There doesn't seem to be much emphasis on the biological processes (e.g. riparian vegetation) that also shape and form the habitat template. While the problem statements addresses by this proposal are laudable, it is unclear how the proposal will address many of these lofty goals.

ISRP Remarks on RME Group Comments:

The ISRP is in general agreement with the RME review comments on this project.


Recommendation:
Recommended Action
Date:
Oct 24, 2002

Comment:

This proposal is long on concepts and short on details. Conceptual model largely driven by physical models with little consideration of biological moderators to ecosystem function.
Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Nov 5, 2002

Comment:

Not Fundable. Disagree with CBFWA's Recommended Action. The proposal is inadequate and a response was not requested. This long rambling proposal did not provide adequate detail in the critical Section f. Proposal objectives, tasks and methods to allow review of methods (methods are too brief). In future proposals the proponents might consider reducing the level of effort and propose to produce a directory of and synthesis report containing protocols and recommendations for how and when physical process methods should be used. Proposals must include a monitoring and evaluation section. It is not appropriate for one of the most quantitative proposals to not have a quantitative monitoring and evaluation plan for success of the project.

The proponents propose to link the biological and physical worlds through cause and effect processes and to develop an overarching "model" called the Physical Process Method (PPM) process. The project would provide input to the EDT process of evaluating aquatic habitat and predicting effects of habitat changes on anadromous fish populations. The ISRP is not convinced that a highly sophisticated mathematical approach in combination with EDT is appropriate at this time. The sub-models are available (and some were listed in the proposal) for many of the processes they want to link. Users may be better off to leave them unlinked and use them as needed, based on the combined expertise of several disciplines working together. An overarching Physical Processes Model may gain little not available from individual models for discrete processes. However, part of Phase 1, a directory of and synthesis report containing protocols and recommendations for use of individual physical process models in subbasin planning, may be useful. The ISRP agrees that a useful form for this inventory would be the style of presentation of protocols in the report "Inventory and Monitoring of Salmon Habitat in the Northwest: Directory and Synthesis of Protocols for Management/Research and Volunteers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and British Columbia" by Johnson, et al. 2001.


Recommendation:
Date:
Jan 21, 2003

Comment:

Statement of Potential Biological Benefit
Indirect if any. Inventory and synthesize existing physical process tools to develop a database useful in habitat analyses and strategic planning.

Comments
The linking of models is something that does not lead to scientifically sound analysis. This project is not well thought out. It presents many ideas but no clear linkages between physical processes. Additionally, there is not enough information in the methods to provide for a more detailed review.

Already ESA Required?
No

Biop?
No


Recommendation:
Do Not Fund (Tier 3)
Date:
Jun 11, 2003

Comment:

Category:
3. Other projects not recommended by staff

Comments: