FY 2003 Mainstem/Systemwide proposal 200309000

Additional documents

TitleType
35036 Narrative Narrative
35036 Powerpoint Presentation Powerpoint Presentation
35036 Sponsor Response to the ISRP Response

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleIdentify the mechanisms of stranding of juvenile fall chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach
Proposal ID200309000
OrganizationU.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USGS/USFWS)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
NameKenneth F. Tiffan
Mailing addressCRRL, 5501A Cook-Underwood Rd. Cook, WA 98605
Phone / email5095382299 / ken_tiffan@usgs.gov
Manager authorizing this projectDr. James Seelye
Review cycleMainstem/Systemwide
Province / SubbasinMainstem/Systemwide /
Short descriptionPredict stranding-related mortality using a GIS and statistical approach by incorporating fish behavior and ramping rate information.
Target speciesFall chinook salmon
Project location
LatitudeLongitudeDescription
46.26 -119.23 Columbia River at Richland, WA
46.644 -119.9099 Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA
155

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agencyAction #BiOp AgencyDescription

Section 2. Past accomplishments

YearAccomplishment

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project IDTitleDescription
199102900 Life history of fall chinook salmon Builds upon the habitat and entrapment work conducted by this project in the Hanford Reach
19971400 Evaluate stranding in the Hanford Reach (completed) Builds upon stranding work of this project and provides answers to questions left unanswered by this project

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Objective 1. Determine the roles of ramping rates and fish behavior and response and mechansisms of stranding due to water level fluctuations. Task 1.a. Conduct controlled field experiments to define the criteria that strand juvenile fish. 3 $84,132
Task 1.b. Conduct controlled laboratory experiments to define the mechansisms that strand juvenile fish. 3 $60,000
Task 1.c. Document fish behavior that contributes to stranding. 3 $47,000
Objective 2. Develop a tool to predict losses of subyearling fall chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach due to stranding and entrapment caused by flow fluctuations at Priest Rapids Dam Task 2.a. Use an individual-based model to determine the proportion of the population at risk of stranding. 3 $32,000
Task 2.b. Identify areas with high probabilities for stranding fish and estimate losses in those areas for the entire Hanford Reach. 3 $35,000
Task 2.c. Build interactive Web-based application to host results of analysis within a GIS framework. 2 $20,000
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
1. Determine the roles of ramping rates and fish behavior and response and mechansisms of stranding due to water level fluctuations. 2003 2006 $500,000
2. Develop a tool to predict losses of subyearling fall chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach due to stranding and entrapment caused by flow fluctuations at Priest Rapids Dam 2003 2006 $286,000
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
FY 2004FY 2005FY 2006
$250,868$207,000$50,000

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2003 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget
ItemNoteFY 2003 cost
Personnel FTE: 3.9 $135,622
Fringe $29,038
Supplies $17,000
Travel $12,400
Indirect $66,895
Other Boat and vehicle operation and maintenance $17,177
$278,132
Total estimated budget
Total FY 2003 cost$278,132
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds$0
Total FY 2003 budget request$278,132
FY 2003 forecast from 2002$0
% change from forecast0.0%
Cost sharing
OrganizationItem or service providedAmountCash or in-kind
ADFG SHOALS Lidar Survey of 34 miles of Hanford Reach $154,000 cash
ADFG Bathymetric substrate survey of 34 miles of Hanford Reach $35,000 cash
ADFG Lidar data processing $10,000 cash
USFWS 2-D hydrodynamic model generation $115,000 cash
Other budget explanation

The projected $50,000 for FY06 is for preparation of peer-review journal articles summarizing the results of the project.


Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Recommendation:
Fundable only if response is adequate
Date:
Aug 2, 2002

Comment:

Generally fundable, but a response is needed which would more adequately describe how this proposal might meet a management information need which is not available from previous studies.

The proposal focuses on "mechanisms" that might be involved in stranding of juvenile chinook in the Hanford Reach, and puts an emphasis on behavioral mechanisms of the fish that might affect rates of stranding. It appears that the proposal is in response to previous studies that have focused on features of the habitat that might lead to stranding. If this is so, then the proposal should provide more detail on shortcomings of previous studies, and more specifically identify the expected outcomes of this proposed project that might lead to improved management of flows or other measures. It appears that the previous studies, which might be termed habitat studies, may have provided a more direct approach to identifying what might be the same solution or set of solutions to the stranding problem. One of the solutions that has already been identified and adopted is provision of stabilized flows during the time of emigration of fry from the Hanford Reach. While the proposal implies that this provision has not been adequate and the proposal provides some estimates of numbers of juveniles estimated to have been stranded in the previous three-year period in support of the claim, no information is provided on corresponding patterns of flow at the time of stranding other than to state that "This [previous study] has been used by hydropower operators to liberalize fish protection programs since 1999."

The Council and NMFS's ISAB has a particular interest in this stranding issue (ISAB 99-5) and made a recommendation to the Council that a revision of the Vernita Bar Agreement be adopted to extend protection to emigrating fry. We understand that Grant County P.U.D. led in the development of a revised agreement among all of the (numerous) affected parties in 1999. In addition to studies under the Council's program, funded by BPA, Grant County P.U.D. continues to monitor fall chinook at Vernita Bar during spawning, incubation, fry emergence, and now fry emigration. Before recommending this study for funding, the reviewers will need to be assured that the principal investigators are familiar with provisions of the Vernita Bar Agreement and its revision, including the monitoring and evaluation provisions that are ongoing.

There is a need to more fully describe the measures that are in place to stabilize flows in the Hanford Reach as a result of the "Vernita Bar Agreement", which calls for stabilized flows during spawning, incubation, fry emergence, and emigration in the Vernita Bar portion of the Hanford Reach. (See ISG 2000 "Return to the River 2000", NWPPC Doc 2000-12, p. 451-2).

The proposal does not present a convincing argument for the need to deliberately manipulate flows in order to study their effects on stranding, particularly since they are planned for times when fry are expected to be present (Task 1.a, p. 7). If on-the-ground studies are necessary, it should be possible to observe the effects on chinook fry of ramping rates and duration of flow reductions of various magnitudes during periods not encompassed by the Vernita Bar Agreement (as modified in 1999). The Agreement is not designed to protect down to the last fish. And the power operators are certain to undertake load following as soon as restrictions on operations are relaxed.

Further to this point, the proposal raised questions about the potential for extraction of further important information from existing data. This should be discussed in the proposal. From the discussion on page 2 and the oral presentation it appears that estimates of entrapment area and estimates of stranded fry were pursued somewhat independently, with the result that knowledge of the effects of hydropower operations is not sufficient to be able to predict numbers of stranded fry to be expected under various operating scenarios. The possibility of using existing data to arrive at such a capability should be discussed in the proposal. It ought to be possible to relate estimates of stranded numbers and estimates of entrapment area, each that relates to the same operating conditions, i.e. develop a table that shows a set of conditions of ramping rate, duration, and relative volume of reduction (%), and corresponding estimates of numbers of fry stranded during each such episode, and estimated area of potential entrapment. Such a table could be used to develop a regression equation to estimate numbers of fry expected to be stranded under those scenarios. If this effort should prove to be successful, the pursuit of behavioral studies to identify mechanisms involved in stranding would not be necessary.

With information already available from previous studies, it ought to be possible to identify certain areas responsible for major strandings. Has thought been given to the possibility of opening these up with a dozer or other mechanical means, deepening a downstream outlet end of the pool to facilitate emigration of fry?


Recommendation:
Urgent*
Date:
Oct 24, 2002

Comment:

This project has full support from CBFWA. Other studies have been proposed, or initiated, by other entities that resemble this effort; but those studies are judged to be inadequate by these project sponsors and the reviewers. * Failing to fund this project immediately will pose a high risk of significant and immediate negative impact on successful implementation of the Fish and Wildlife Program.
Recommendation:
Urgent*
Date:
Oct 24, 2002

Comment:

The budget for FY03 and FY04 has been reduced by 10% from that originally proposed. We have cut back on some of the experiments that were proposed in Task 1.b., but we will still be able to provide useful information from this task. We also reduced the amount for Task 2.c., which will defer its completion, but this task is of lower priority in the first year of the study.
Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Nov 5, 2002

Comment:

Fundable and agree with CBFWA that this project is urgent. The proposal focuses on "mechanisms" that might be involved in stranding of juvenile chinook in the Hanford Reach, and puts an emphasis on behavioral mechanisms of the fish that might affect rates of stranding. The response provided more detail on shortcomings of previous studies, how this project fit into those studies, and more specifically identified the expected outcomes of this proposed project that might lead to improved management of flows or other measures.

The ISRP raised questions primarily whether sufficient information already exists on the stranding and entrapment of juvenile fall chinook in the Hanford Reach. The response identified important shortcomings in existing information. This proposal is planned to fill the gaps.

The Council and NMFS's ISAB has a particular interest in this stranding issue (ISAB 99-5) and made a recommendation to the Council that a revision of the Vernita Bar Agreement be adopted to extend protection to emigrating fry. We understand that Grant County P.U.D. led in the development of a revised agreement among all of the (numerous) affected parties in 1999. In addition to studies under the Council's program, funded by BPA, Grant County P.U.D. continues to monitor fall chinook at Vernita Bar during spawning, incubation, fry emergence, and now fry emigration. The response assured the ISRP that the principal investigators are familiar with provisions of the Vernita Bar Agreement and its revision, including the monitoring and evaluation provisions that are ongoing. Specifically, we had questions whether the amended Vernita Bar Agreement might adequately address the problem. The sponsor provided a copy of the amended Vernita Bar Agreement and discussed the problems it fails to address.

The amended Vernita Bar Agreement of February 25th 2002, while it is well intended and represents a step forward to protect recently emerged fall chinook that have not yet moved out of the area, contains loopholes that lead to less than desirable protection. The loss of an estimated 2 million juvenile fall chinook during the spring of 2001 is an illustration of this point.

There are at least two problems that can be seen in the new agreement that are pointed out in the response. The agreement specifies permissible fluctuations in flow under various river flow scenarios, but the frequency, duration, and rapidity of fluctuations are not specified. The provisions do not spring directly from field observations that indicate whether they would prevent mortality of fish or not. In practice the major changes in flow brought about by load following occur at night between 11 PM and 5 AM. By the time field crews arrive on the river in the morning, flows have increased and any dead fish have been washed down the river. The Vernita Bar Agreement should be modified to correct the problems with flow specifications, and the field monitoring should be modified to include nighttime observations.

The response agreed with the ISRP comment that there is a need to exercise caution when deliberately manipulating flows in order to study their effects on stranding, particularly since they are planned for times when fry are expected to be present (Task 1.a, p. 7).

The response adequately addressed questions about the potential for extraction of further important information from existing data. The ISRP suggested that information already available from previous studies might be used to identify certain areas responsible for major strandings. The sponsors agreed it might be useful to open these up with a dozer or other mechanical means, deepening a downstream outlet end of the pool to facilitate emigration of fry, but the current status of the Reach as a National Monument could make it infeasible.


Recommendation:
Date:
Jan 21, 2003

Comment:

Statement of Potential Biological Benefit
Benefits are indirect. The goal of this project is to identify the mechanisms of juvenile fall chinook stranding in the Hanford reach to provide Hydromanagers with tools for minimizing the losses of fry due to hydro operations.

Comments
Benefits unlisted fish

Already ESA Required?
No

Biop?
No


Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Jun 2, 2003

Comment:

BPA Phase 3. Overlaps with study funded by Grant PUD
Recommendation:
Fund (Tier 1)
Date:
Jun 11, 2003

Comment:

Category:
1. Council Staff preferred projects that fit province allocation

Comments:
Addresses impacts to Hanford fall chinook. Identified by CBFWA as highest priority new projects.


Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Oct 2, 2003

Comment: