FY 2003 Mainstem/Systemwide proposal 198910700
Contents
Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary
Reviews and Recommendations
Additional documents
| Title | Type |
|---|---|
| 198910700 Narrative | Narrative |
| 198910700 Powerpoint Presentation | Powerpoint Presentation |
| 198910700 Sponsor Response to the ISRP | Response |
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies |
| Proposal ID | 198910700 |
| Organization | University of Washington (UW) |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator | |
| Name | John R. Skalski |
| Mailing address | UW School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, 1324 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101-2509 |
| Phone / email | 2066164851 / jrs@cbr.washington.edu |
| Manager authorizing this project | Carol Zuiches, Director, Grant & Contract Services |
| Review cycle | Mainstem/Systemwide |
| Province / Subbasin | Mainstem/Systemwide / |
| Short description | Improve monitoring and evaluation capabilities by developing better measurement tools and study designs to estimate juvenile and adult salmonid survival and survival relationships. Provide statistical guidance to investigators in the Columbia Basin. |
| Target species | Upper Columbia River spring chinook, Snake River spring/summer chinook, Upper Columbia River steelhead, Mid-Columbia River steelhead [NMFS ESUs] |
Project location
| Latitude | Longitude | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Systemwide |
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)
Sponsor-reported:
| RPA |
|---|
| 050 |
| 059 |
| 082 |
| 083 |
| 085 |
| 107 |
| 180 |
| 1193 |
Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:
| Reviewing agency | Action # | BiOp Agency | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMFS/BPA | Action 195 | NMFS | The Action Agencies shall investigate and partition the causes of mortality below Bonneville Dam after juvenile salmonid passage through the FCRPS. |
| NMFS/BPA | Action 188 | NMFS | The Action Agencies and NMFS shall work within the annual planning and congressional appropriation processes to establish and provide the appropriate level of FCRPS funding for studies of PIT-tagged wild stocks from the lower river streams. The studies shall be used to contrast stock productivity and hydrosystem effects. |
| NMFS/BPA | Action 192 | NMFS | As set out in Action 50 (Section 9.6.1.3.4), BPA and the Corps shall install necessary adult PIT-tag detectors at appropriate FCRPS projects before the expected return of adult salmon from the 2001 juvenile outmigration. These adult PIT-tag detectors shall be used as needed for calculating transport benefits, conversion rates, and SARs for listed salmon and steelhead. |
Section 2. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishment |
|---|---|
| 1989 | Developed statistical theory to relate smolt survival with ambient river conditions based on tagging studies. |
| 1989 | Developd analytical capabilities to analyze research on survival processes of wild and hatchery chinook and steelhead during smolt outmigration. |
| 1990 | Began software development for statistical analyses to estimate survival and covariate effects from tagging studies. |
| 1991 | Demonstrated ability to simultaneously assess ambient effects and individual covariate effects. |
| 1992 | Extended computer sofware to include analysis of group and individual covariate effects. Proposed "strawman" design for development of PIT-tag facilities on Snake-Columbia River. Developed study plan for Snake River survival studies. |
| 1993 | Final debugging of computer program to analyze PIT-tag survival studies. Conducted first PIT-tag Snake River survival study and conducted analysis of hatchery survival studies. |
| 1994 | Completed and distributed SURPH.1 statistical software and user's manual for statistical analysis of PIT-tag survival studies. Continued to support NMFS survival studies. |
| 1995 | Produced a PC version of SURPH software and sample size program to design tag-release studies. Continued to support NMFS survival studies. Continued to refine and expand statistical methods and software to meet the needs of NMFS and other users. |
| 1996 | Developed statistical methods for estimating season-wide survival. Developed proper statistical model to estimate survival rates for fall chinook with residualization. Continued to support NMFS survival studies. |
| 1997 | Improved statistical models and software for expanded survival experiments. Investigated alternative approaches to estimating ocean survival rates. Continued to support NMFS survival studies. Assisted Nez Perce tribe in performing survival analyses. |
| 1998 | Completed statistical theory for longitudinal analysis of time-varying, individual-based covariates in PIT-tag survival analyses. |
| 1998 | Demonstrated feasibility of extracting precise and detailed information on smolt survival and passage rates through bypass, turbine, and spillway units at hydroprojects using radiotelemetry. |
| 1999 | Performed radio-tag and PIT-tag comparisons of smolt outmigration behavior. Continued to support NMFS, USGS, and other users. |
| 2000 | Completed new generation of SURPH.2 software for survival analyses with greater capabilities. Developed new analyses to relate smolt survival to river conditions using paired release-recapture methods. Continued to support NMFS, USGS, and other users. |
| 2001 | Developed flexible statistical software package, USER.1, to analyze the wide variety of radio-tag and PIT-tag survival studies being conducted in the Columbia Basin. Assisted NMFS in evaluating performance of adult PIT-tag detection facilities. |
| 2001 | Developed statistical software to design 3D tracking arrays of acoustic-tagged smolts. |
| 2002 | Developed new statistical methods to better estimate transport/inriver ratios. Provided expanded estimation capabilities in Program USER.2. |
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
| Project ID | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 198331900 | New Marking and Monitoring Techniques for Fish | Complementary. Provides technical assistance in evaluating new system performance and design of system-wide tag analyses. |
| 198712700 | Smolt Monitoring by Federal and Non-Federal Agencies | Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses. |
| 199302900 | Survival Estimates for the Passage and Juvenile Salmonids Through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs | Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses. |
| 199008000 | Columbia River Basin PIT Tag Information Systems | Complementary. Uses data collected by PSMFC to extract life history information on migrating salmon populations. |
Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Maintain software and access. | a. Maintain SURPH.2 software. | Ongoing | $13,995 | |
| b. Maintain USER.2 software. | Ongoing | $13,995 | ||
| c. Respond to user requests. | Ongoing | $12,762 | ||
| d. Adapt software to changing computing environment. | Ongoing | $13,995 |
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
| FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $54,000 | $56,200 | $58,400 | $60,700 |
Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Improve statistical software. | a. Expand USER.2 capabilities | Ongoing | $25,470 | |
| b. Expand data input capabilities. | Ongoing | $7,350 | ||
| c. Expand SURPH.2 capabilities. | Ongoing | $50,919 | ||
| 3. Provide guidance on adult survival studies. | a. Adult PIT-tag capabilities. | Ongoing | $34,942 | |
| b. Adult radiotelemetry investigations | Ongoing | $17,469 | ||
| 4. Evaluate high-flow PIT-tag capabilities. | Ongoing | $17,718 | ||
| 5. Technology transfer | a. Provide statistical consulting. | Ongoing | $57,235 |
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
| FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $215,000 | $225,000 | $232,500 | $242,000 |
Section 8. Estimated budget summary
Itemized budget
| Item | Note | FY 2003 cost |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel | $131,901 | |
| Fringe | $29,245 | |
| Supplies | Includes services and equipment | $23,730 |
| Travel | $1,838 | |
| Indirect | $47,635 | |
| Other | Lease | $31,501 |
| $265,850 | ||
Total estimated budget
| Total FY 2003 cost | $265,850 |
| Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds | $0 |
| Total FY 2003 budget request | $265,850 |
| FY 2003 forecast from 2002 | $220,000 |
| % change from forecast | 20.8% |
Reason for change in estimated budget
Additional annual task has been added to project beginning in 2001.
Reason for change in scope
With the advent of installing adult PIT-tag detectors at FCRPS dams, this project will assist in evaluating the performance of new facilities and with the planning for adult survival studies.
Cost sharing
| Organization | Item or service provided | Amount | Cash or in-kind |
|---|
Reviews and recommendations
This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.
Fundable only if response is adequate
Aug 2, 2002
Comment:
The project develops analytical tools for tagging studies. This project provides support for the design and analysis of tagging studies to groups requesting assistance. This project offers a valuable system of checks and balances for evaluation of statistical analysis of complex tagging studies (PIT tags, radios, etc.) and other studies.A response is needed to identify methodology for monitoring and evaluation. Information to aid in answering the following questions is needed: Have the products produced in the past benefited fish? How many client hours have been logged in the past? Is there evidence of client satisfaction? Who uses the products produced and how beneficial are they to users?
Related questions are: How available is the service and to whom? What is the role of the author in review of project proposals? What is the means for providing statistical support to Council FWP funded projects. How are services advertised to the region?
The FY00 ISRP review noted that there was inadequate detail on what the principal investigator will do and that there should be a better description of indirect costs to the UW and direct costs for office space. These comments still apply.
Comment:
There appears to be overlap in tasks provided in this project, Project Number 199302900, and Project Number 199302900. These projects should be critically reviewed to insure that tasks are not redundant. There is approximately $761,000 between these projects in contracts to one consultant for statistical work. How much of this work is also being performed at NMFS and other fish and wildlife agencies? This project funds analyses that are potentially provided through other projects within the Fish and Wildlife Program. This project is funded in order for BPA to obtain statistical support. This effort should be funded through BPA's Fish and Wildlife Division overhead.Comment:
Fundable (high priority). Disagree with CBFWA's Do Not Fund recommendation. This project develops analytical tools for tagging studies and provides support for the design and analysis of tagging studies to groups requesting assistance. This project offers a valuable system of checks and balances for evaluation of statistical analysis of complex tagging studies (PIT tags, radios, etc.) and other studies. The response provided details on past and present users of the products and services related to this project. The ISRP suggests that logs of time spent in client support be kept, client satisfaction surveys be collected, and these items be summarized and presented in support of future proposals.Comment:
Statement of Potential Biological BenefitIndirect. Provides statistical support and guidance on the design and analysis of PIT-tag survival studies to the Northwest fisheries community. This project also provides regional support for balloon-tag radiotelemetry and acoustic-tag survival studies in an effort to reduce sample sizes of ESA stocks and provide more detailed survival and passage data.
Comments
198910700 is a proposal to advance an ongoing project to develop statistical analysis tools for fish survivorship data. This program includes the software SURPH – now in version 2.0 after 13 years of program development. The proposal has 5 tasks: further improve the software performance, advance the statistical underpinnings, collaborate with field tests, evaluate new PIT tag techniques, provide analysis services to CRB investigators. Strengths of the proposal include the stated objective of improving the front-end interface. This improvement is sorely needed. The other principal strength of the proposal is the product itself. In theory this product serves an immensely useful function. The proposal correctly makes the point that more tagging is done in the CRB than anywhere else, and analytical tools are sorely needed.
The principal weakness of this proposal is the lack of detail with respect to interaction with users both in the design and testing phase of software development. Its been 13 years of development, surely one might expect that before we embark on another funding cycle of product development we should see some process of organized testing? How are the experiences of users assayed to improve the front-end interface? This is a critical problem with the current version. In addition to this design function, it is also critical to show that users are actually using this product. The realized usefulness of anything is the product of its intrinsic functionality and the frequency with which people exploit it. The truth is this product may be very useful, but so complicated that no one uses it. If no one is using it should continued development be funded? Detailing how specific end user input will be accommodated into the design and testing of the product would improve the proposal.
Already ESA Required?
No
Biop?
No
NWPPC Funding Recommendation
Fund (Tier 2) - Fund if funding becomes available
Jun 11, 2003
Comment:
Category:2. Projects that Council staff would recommend if funding becomes available
Comments:
Based on NMFS comments of January 21.
Comment:
Comment:
Critical for the development of statistical theory, models, and software for tagging studies and guidance on study design and subsequent analysis. Also provides analytical capability for online users of DART.NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review
expense
May 2005
| FY05 NPCC start of year: | FY06 NPCC staff preliminary: | FY06 NPCC July draft start of year: |
| $239,265 | $239,265 | $239,265 |
Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website