FY 2003 Mainstem/Systemwide proposal 199105100
Contents
Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary
Reviews and Recommendations
Additional documents
| Title | Type |
|---|---|
| 199105100 Narrative | Narrative |
| 199105100 Sponsor Response to the ISRP | Response |
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Monitoring and Evaluation Statistical Support |
| Proposal ID | 199105100 |
| Organization | University of Washington (UW) |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator | |
| Name | John R. Skalski |
| Mailing address | UW School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101-2509 |
| Phone / email | 2066164851 / jrs@cbr.washington.edu |
| Manager authorizing this project | Carol Zuiches, Director, Grant & Contract Services |
| Review cycle | Mainstem/Systemwide |
| Province / Subbasin | Mainstem/Systemwide / |
| Short description | Develop statistical methods for monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provide added-value analyses and statistical support on regional fisheries issues. Provide smolt migration timing predictions on the internet. |
| Target species | Upper Columbia River spring chinook, Snake River spring/summer chinook, Upper Columbia River steelhead, Mid-Columbia River steelhead, Snake River sockeye [ESUs], coho |
Project location
| Latitude | Longitude | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Systemwide |
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)
Sponsor-reported:
| RPA |
|---|
| 046 |
| 061 |
| 068 |
| 069 |
| 080 |
| 086 |
| 088 |
| 092 |
| 102 |
| 162 |
| 185 |
| 188 |
| 190 |
| 195 |
| 196 |
| 198 |
| 1193 |
Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:
| Reviewing agency | Action # | BiOp Agency | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMFS | Action 190 | NMFS | The Action Agencies shall continue to fund studies that monitor survival, growth, and other early life history attributes of Snake River wild juvenile fall chinook. |
| NMFS/BPA | Action 199 | NMFS | The Action Agencies shall implement the specific research/monitoring actions outlined in Appendix H. |
| NMFS | Action 185 | NMFS | The Action Agencies shall continue to fund and expand, as appropriate, fish marking and recapturing programs aimed at defining juvenile migrant survival for both transported and nontransported migrants and adult returns for both groups. These studies shall also compare the SARs of transported and nontransported fish to calculate the differential delayed mortality (D), if any, of transported fish. |
| NMFS/BPA | Action 185 | NMFS | The Action Agencies shall continue to fund and expand, as appropriate, fish marking and recapturing programs aimed at defining juvenile migrant survival for both transported and nontransported migrants and adult returns for both groups. These studies shall also compare the SARs of transported and nontransported fish to calculate the differential delayed mortality (D), if any, of transported fish. |
| NMFS | Action 188 | NMFS | The Action Agencies and NMFS shall work within the annual planning and congressional appropriation processes to establish and provide the appropriate level of FCRPS funding for studies of PIT-tagged wild stocks from the lower river streams. The studies shall be used to contrast stock productivity and hydrosystem effects. |
| NMFS/BPA | Action 188 | NMFS | The Action Agencies and NMFS shall work within the annual planning and congressional appropriation processes to establish and provide the appropriate level of FCRPS funding for studies of PIT-tagged wild stocks from the lower river streams. The studies shall be used to contrast stock productivity and hydrosystem effects. |
Section 2. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishment |
|---|---|
| 1991 | Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and difficulties in establishing travel time relationship with existing data. |
| 1992 | Report on "strawman" smolt montioring design for the Snake/Columbia river systems. This strawman became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River. |
| 1993 | Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems. |
| 1994 | Developed and tested Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time. |
| 1995 | Report on transportation benefit analysis methods showed estimation differences among investigators may be related to analysis methods selected. Recommendations on proper statistical models included. |
| 1996 | RealTime model of this project linked with CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to include Lower Snake River hydroprojects and McNary Dam. |
| 1996 | Investigated extending real-time outmigration predictions to Mid-Columbia hydroprojects. Expansion of internet access to cover historical run-timing and flow data at all major hydroprojects. |
| 1996 | Expansion of online interactive information to include in-season time series of PIT detections for NMFS Snake River evolutionary significant units (ESUs) as they pass through hydroprojects. |
| 1996 | Report on Priest Rapids hatchery returns of fall chinook versus river conditions which found upstream-downstream study designs to be of limited statistical reliability. |
| 1997 | RealTime predictions continued, along with addition of Redfish Lake sockeye salmon and steelhead. |
| 1997 | Investigations included study of effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of fish guidance efficiency (FGE) and spill effectiveness (SE) from PIT-tag data, and the estimation of season-wide survival rates and smolt growth rates. |
| 1998 | Completed study of relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. |
| 1998 | Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag, and balloon-tag studies in explaining Lower Granite Dam project survival for outmigrating salmonid smolts. |
| 1999 | Completed study of relationship between spring age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. |
| 1999 | Assessed validity of using Rice Island PIT-tag recoveries in estimating smolt survival through the Bonneville project. |
| 1999 | Assessed the feasibility of using hatchery rearing information to assess smolt quality and subsequent downriver migration performance in cooperation with USGS. |
| 2000 | Completed study of relationships between fall chinook age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. |
| 2000 | Completed synthesis and comparison of smolt survival estimates as generated with different technologies and experimental protocols. |
| 2000 | Assessed the effects of the detection efficiency of adult PIT-tag detection facilities at Bonneville Dam on the performance of transportation evaluation studies and estimation of ocean survival. |
| 2001 | Evaluated the statistical behavior of proposed statistical tests for recovery in the NMFS RPA based on annual estimates of smolt survival. Proposed methods were found to have low-to-moderate chance of identifying the correct status of recovery. |
| 2001 | Developed alternative statistical methods to assess recovery that had much higher probabilities of correctly identifying the true status of recovery. |
| 2001 | Examined the statistical bias of treatment/control return numbers and developed bias-corrected estimators. |
| 2002 | Investigated the relationship between early ocean survival of fall chinook salmon and oceanographic conditions. |
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
| Project ID | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 199102800 | Monitoring Smolt Migrations of Wild Snake river Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon | Complementary. Provides independent assessment of smolt survival and migration dynamics. Uses tag releases to predict outmigration timing during season. |
| 198712700 | Smolt Monitoring by Federal and Non-Federal Agencies | Complementary. Uses passage counts to predict outmigration timing during season. |
| 199403300 | Fish Passage Center | Complementary. Uses smolt monitoring data to predict outmigration timing during season. |
| 199602000 | Comparative Survival Rate (CSS) of Hatchery PIT Tagged Chinook and Comparative Survival Study Oversight Committee | Complementary. Uses PIT-tag releases to monitor annual trends in smolt migration timing and survival. |
| 198201301 | Coded-Wire Tag Recovery Program | Complementary. Uses CWT data to monitor smolt-to-adult ratios and ocean effects on adult return rates. |
| 199601900 | Second-Tier Database Support | Complementary. Develops web-based tools and provides historical data summaries for incorporation into the DART database. |
Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2003 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. In-season statistical support. | a. Run-timing predictions. | Ongoing | $71,857 | |
| b. Annual review of run-timing predictions. | Ongoing | $10,970 | ||
| 2. Statistical analysis of historical tagging data | a.Post-season outmigration estimation. | Ongoing | $67,750 | |
| b. Analysis of smolt-to-adult ratios (SARs). | Ongoing | $75,938 | ||
| c. Sample size software. | Ongoing | $82,875 | ||
| 3. Statistical support for region | a. Statistical consultation. | Ongoing | $56,845 | |
| b. Statistical evaluation of performance standards. | Ongoing | $28,420 |
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
| FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $410,400 | $426,800 | $443,800 | $461,600 |
Section 8. Estimated budget summary
Itemized budget
| Item | Note | FY 2003 cost |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel | $211,773 | |
| Fringe | Includes benefits, graduate operating fee. | $48,965 |
| Supplies | Includes services, software, equipment | $11,250 |
| Travel | $2,258 | |
| Indirect | 26% | $71,304 |
| Other | Lease | $49,105 |
| $394,655 | ||
Total estimated budget
| Total FY 2003 cost | $394,655 |
| Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds | $0 |
| Total FY 2003 budget request | $394,655 |
| FY 2003 forecast from 2002 | $351,000 |
| % change from forecast | 12.4% |
Reason for change in estimated budget
Increase in cost of negotiated lease.
Cost sharing
| Organization | Item or service provided | Amount | Cash or in-kind |
|---|
Reviews and recommendations
This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.
Recommendation:
Fundable only if response is adequate
Fundable only if response is adequate
Date:
Aug 2, 2002
Aug 2, 2002
Comment:
Generally fundable, but a response is needed. The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis.A response related to monitoring and evaluation is needed. Specifically, the following questions should be addressed or a protocol for answering these questions should be specified. How many clients are supported by the statistical consulting service and is this service duplicated in other projects (e.g., 198910700)? What evidence is there of client satisfaction and cost effectiveness? What evidence is there that the extra-value information extracted has benefited fish? What is the basis for deciding which hypotheses to test, parameters to estimate, and interrelationships to investigate? What evidence exists that the in-season statistical support has been sufficiently accurate to be useful?
The ISRP recommends that Task 3.2"Statistical evaluation of performance standards." be redirected to proposal #198910700, a proposal from the proponent that seems to more consistent with this task. In fact, the stated goal in the statement "The goal of this task is to design and analyze tagging studies using state-of-the-art statistical methods." seems to be a direct overlap with proposal #198910700.
The FY00 ISRP review noted that plans for formal evaluation do not exist other than those provided by observing the continued use of the products from this on-going project and the success of the investigators in publishing results. The budget and personnel are not adequately justified. These comments remain appropriate.
Comment:
There appears to be overlap in tasks provided in this project, Project Number 198910700, and Project Number 199302900. These projects should be critically reviewed to insure that tasks are not redundant. There is approximately $761,000 between these projects in contracts to one consultant for statistical work. How much of this work is also being performed through NMFS and other fish and wildlife agencies? This project addresses RPAs 185, 188, and 190. This project funds analyses that are potentially provided through other projects within the Fish and Wildlife Program. This project is funded in order for BPA to obtain statistical support. This effort should be funded through BPA's Fish and Wildlife Division overhead.Comment:
Fundable (high priority). Disagree with CBFWA's Do Not Fund recommendation. The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. The response provides information on clients and contributions. The project provides a valuable service. The ISRP suggests that in the future a summary of the following be provided in support of proposals: 1) data on the amount and nature of use of electronic data and analyses posted on the web, 2) responses to satisfaction surveys by internet users, 3) number of requests for analyses and the time taken to respond to those requests.Comment:
Statement of Potential Biological BenefitIndirect. Information management and data analysis project. No direct biological benefit to listed fish, but strong benefit to assessment of hydrosystem impacts on listed fish.
Comments
An important study that strongly supports the FCRPS BiOp's performance standards for assessing hydrosystem impacts.
Already ESA Required?
No
Biop?
Yes
Comment:
Category:1. Council Staff preferred projects that fit province allocation
Comments:
NOAA Fisheries/BPA rank 1.
Comment:
Need to be reviewed for potential consolidation with 198910700 and for cost efficiencies. Budget consistent with NPCC recommendation.Comment:
REVIEW:
NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review
NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review
Funding category:
expense
expense
Date:
May 2005
May 2005
| FY05 NPCC start of year: | FY06 NPCC staff preliminary: | FY06 NPCC July draft start of year: |
| $394,655 | $394,655 | $394,655 |
Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website