FY 2000 proposal 198910700

Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary

Reviews and Recommendations

Additional documents

Title	Type
198910700 Narrative	Narrative

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal title	Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies
Proposal ID	198910700
Organization	University of Washington (UW)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
Name	John R. Skalski
Mailing address	UW School of Fisheries, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Phone / email	2066164851 / jrs@fish.washington.edu
Manager authorizing this project
Review cycle	FY 2000
Province / Subbasin	Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide
Short description	Improve monitoring and evaluation capabilities by developing better measurement tools and study designs to estimate juvenile and adult survival. Develop statistical methods to determine salmonid survival rates and survival relationships.
Target species	Chinook salmon and steelhead

Project location

Latitude	Longitude	Description

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agency	Action #	BiOp Agency	Description

Section 2. Past accomplishments

Year	Accomplishment
1989	Developed theory to assess survival effects that results from ambient river conditions.
1990	Began software development for statistical analyses, and began statistical theory to assess individual covariate effects on survival.
1991	Demonstrated ability to simultaneously assess ambient effects and individual covariate effects.
1992	Extended computer software to include analysis of group and individual covariate effects. Proposed "strawman" design for development of PIT-tag facilities on Snake/Columbia River. Developed study plan for a Snake River survival study evaluation.
1993	Completed statistical software development of analysis package--final debugging of computer program, helped facilitate Snake River survival study, and conducted analysis of hatchery survival studies.
1994	Completed SURPH statistical software and dissemination of a users manual for statistical analysis of data. Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1995	Produced a PC version of SURPH software and sample size program to design tag-release studies. Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1996	Developed statistical methods for estimating season-wide survival. Developed proper statistical model to estimate survival rates for fall chinook with residualization . Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1997	Improved statistical models and software for expanded survival experiments. Continued to support survival studies. Investigate alternative approaches to ocean survival rates. Assisted Nez Perce tribe in performing survival analyses.
1998	Developed batch analysis programs for NMFS to permit the statistical analysis of very large data sets. Developed new unified (PC and UNIX) version of SURPH with greater model specification abilities needed for paired- release investigations.
1998	Completed statistical theory for longitudinal analysis of time-varying, individual-based covariates in survival analyses.
1998	Demonstrated feasibility of extracting precise and detailed information on smolt survival and passage rates at hydroprojects using radiotelemetry models.

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project ID	Title	Description
8712700	Smolt Monitoring by Non-Federal Entities [PSMFC]	Complementary, provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist survival analyses.
8910800	Monitoring and Evaluation Modeling Support [UW]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9008000	Columbia Basin PIT-Tag Information System [PSMFC]	Dependent, project requires high quality PIT-tag data made available through Project 90-080-00 PTAGIS database to extract PIT-tag information to analyze survival data in various formats.
9102900	Supplementation and Survival of Fall Chinook in the Snake River [USFWS]	Complementrary, provides analytical and statistical models and computer software (e.g., SURPH) for survival estimation.
9105100	Monitoring and Evalution Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies [UW]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9302900	Survival Estimation for Dam/Reservoir Passage [NMFS]	Complementary, provides analytical and statistical support to respond to NMFS requests to enhance survival estimation capabilities incorporated in Program SURPH. Responds to requests to NMFS to investigate alternative analyses.
9303701	Technical Assistance with Life Cycle Modeling [PER Ltd.]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9503400	EW Program Support [BPA]	Critical to development of improved analystical tools and consistency in survival estimation across all salmon life cycle stages to maximize learning and the ability to evaluate the success of implemented actions and identify future mitigation options.
9600600	PATH Facilitation, Technical Assistance, & Peer Review [ESSA]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9600800	PATH - Participation by State & Tribal Agencies [ODFW]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9600801	Provide Scientific Input to PATH Process [NMFS]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9601700	Provide Technical Support in PATH [BA Inc.]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9700200	PATH-UW Technical Support	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.
9800100	Analytical Support - PATH and ESA Biological Assessments [HES]	Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships.

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2000 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget

Item	Note	FY 2000 cost
Personnel		$96,040
Fringe		$22,750
Supplies	Includes computer upgrades, software, licenses, services, etc.	$17,900
Operating	O&M occur across a number of budget items. For FY2000, 41% of total budget = $75,821	$0
Travel		$3,000
Indirect	26% of the total direct costs less costs for equipment, graduate operating fee, and office lease	$35,100
Other	Office lease	$10,140
		$184,930

Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 cost	$184,930
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds	$0
Total FY 2000 budget request	$184,930
FY 2000 forecast from 1999	$0
% change from forecast	0.0%

Cost sharing

Organization	Item or service provided	Amount	Cash or in-kind

Other budget explanation

Schedule Constraints: Changes in the marking programs could impact survival research and scheduled analyses of these tagging studies to determine survival relationships.

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

REVIEW:
ISRP Preliminary Review (ISRP 99-2)

Recommendation:
Do Not Fund

Date:
Jun 15, 1999

Comment:

Recommendation: Do not fund. PATH, in its present form, with its present mission, should be phased out. A simpler process could be created to meet the continuing need for evaluation of the limited data now available to address management questions relative to the hydro biological opinion. A more ambitious and comprehensive scientific consensus process should be developed, somewhat along the lines of PATH, to address data collection design issues for the basin, to identify data needs that are critical to the actual management questions, and to ensure that data needs are met, to the extent practical, as quickly as possible, in a coordinated and efficient manner.

Comments: There are no plans for formal evaluation other than those provided by observing the continued use of the products from this on-going project and the success of the investigators in publishing results. This appears to be redundant with 9105100. Narrative calls it complementary, but perhaps these two projects need to be combined. See comments on 9105100. The principal investigator is listed as .17 FTE but no other personnel are listed. There is inadequate detail on what the principal investigator will do. There should be a better description of indirect costs to the UW and direct costs for office space.

REVIEW:
CBFWA Funding Recommendation

Recommendation:
Do Not Fund

Date:
Aug 20, 1999

Comment:

REVIEW:
CBFWA: Subregional Team Comments

Recommendation:

Date:
Aug 20, 1999

Comment:

BPA Non-Discretionary. Services listed are not used by the managers, in general. Should include such services as a part of other projects.

REVIEW:
CBFWA: Fish Passage Advisory Committee Comments

Recommendation:

Date:
Aug 20, 1999

Comment:

Criteria all: Met? No - It is unclear who is using this study and why. NMFS says they are not using this and CZES is not. It is not used by PATH therefore why continue funding?

REVIEW:
NWPPC Funding Recommendation (NWPPC 2000-6)

Recommendation:
Fund

Date:
Mar 1, 2000

Comment:

[Decision made in 12-7-99 Council Meeting]; Funding subject to independent review: BPA non-discretionary (Technical Support Project Placeholder) $184,930

REVIEW:
NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review

Funding category:
expense

Date:
May 2005

FY05 NPCC start of year:	FY06 NPCC staff preliminary:	FY06 NPCC July draft start of year:
$239,265	$239,265	$239,265

Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website