FY 2000 proposal 198910800
Contents
Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary
Reviews and Recommendations
Additional documents
| Title | Type |
|---|---|
| 198910800 Narrative | Narrative |
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Monitor and Evaluate Modeling Support |
| Proposal ID | 198910800 |
| Organization | University of Washington (UW) |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator | |
| Name | James J. Anderson |
| Mailing address | 1325 - 4th Ave., Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101 |
| Phone / email | 2065434772 / jim@fish.washington.edu |
| Manager authorizing this project | |
| Review cycle | FY 2000 |
| Province / Subbasin | Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide |
| Short description | Test hypotheses underlying key salmon recovery management decisions, develop decisions analysis to evaluate alternative management strategies, and assist in designing research monitoring and adaptive management experiments. |
| Target species | Chinook and steelhead |
Project location
| Latitude | Longitude | Description |
|---|
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)
Sponsor-reported:
| RPA |
|---|
Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:
| Reviewing agency | Action # | BiOp Agency | Description |
|---|
Section 2. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishment |
|---|---|
| 1995 | The Mainstem passage and Adult Harvest models, CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2 were completed and calibrated. |
| Theory and calibration manuals were prepared. Participated in in-season database development. Began analyzing the impact of ocean conditions on smolt survival. | |
| 1996 | Revised and recalibrated CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2. Successfully ported CRiSP.2 from Unix platform to Windows 95, making it more accessible to the public. |
| Revised manuals for both models. Expanded our in-season database that gave regional fisheries community real-time access to river and fish passage conditions through the World Wide Web. | |
| Provided real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks at sites in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Published daily predictions on the World Wide Web. Continued the impact of ocean analysis. | |
| 1997 | Improved DART web database. Completed manual update for CRiSP.2 through the on-line help. Released CRiSP.2 NT/Windows 95 and an alpha version of CRiSP.1 for NT/Windows 95. |
| Continued a combined effort between CRiSP and RealTime (developed under Dr. John Skalski) to provide real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks. | |
| Implemented gas predictions for in-season management of the impacts of the hydrosystem on gas levels in the river on our web site. | |
| 1998 | Developed CRiSP1.6 to include gas mortality algorithm. Updated the survival calibration tool for the new version (1.6). |
| Updated in-season and post-season analyses. | |
| Maintained and monitored Columbia Basin Research (CBR) web pages and answered requested information from the public as they are received. |
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
| Project ID | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 9601700 | Provide Technical Support in PATH - BioAnalysts Inc. (Giorgi) | CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. |
| 9600600 | PATH Facilitation, Technical Assistance & Peer Review | CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. |
| 9600800 | PATH-Participation by State & Tribal Agencies | CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. |
| 9800100 | Analytical Support-PATH and ESA Biological Assessments - Hinrichsen | CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. |
| 9303701 | Technical Assistance with Life Cycle Modeling - Paulsen Environmental | CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. |
| 9007800 | Evaluate Predator Control and Provide Technical Support for PATH | Provides input for model development. |
| 9601900 | Second Tier data base for ecosystem focus | Data from this source are used for model calibration. |
| 9700200 | UW PATH support | Our specific tasks involve mainstem passage issues, effects of the ocean and estuary on survival, and harvest issues. |
| 8910700 | Statistical Support for Salmonid Studies | Information from this project is used to calibrate and validate the CRiSP models. |
| 9105100 | Monitoring & Evaluation Statistical Report (Dr. Skalski) | Cooperate with this group to produce CRiSP/Real-time outputs. |
| 20537 | Bonneville Power Administration Non-Discretionary Projects | |
| 8910800 | Monitor and Evaluate Modeling Support |
Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Section 8. Estimated budget summary
Itemized budget
| Item | Note | FY 2000 cost |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel | Direct Salary | $209,305 |
| Fringe | Standard UW benefit rates | $47,130 |
| Supplies | $10,486 | |
| Operating | $18,874 | |
| Capital | Office Lease & minor equip. upgrade | $25,751 |
| Travel | $3,900 | |
| Indirect | 26% of Modified Total Direct Costs | $79,221 |
| Other | Tuition fees | $1,633 |
| Subcontractor | Lang, Railsback & Associates | $15,000 |
| $411,300 | ||
Total estimated budget
| Total FY 2000 cost | $411,300 |
| Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds | $0 |
| Total FY 2000 budget request | $411,300 |
| FY 2000 forecast from 1999 | $0 |
| % change from forecast | 0.0% |
Cost sharing
| Organization | Item or service provided | Amount | Cash or in-kind |
|---|
Other budget explanation
Schedule Constraints: Uncertainties of schedules from coordinated groups may cause schedule changes.
Reviews and recommendations
This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.
Comment:
Recommendation: Do not fund. PATH, in its present form, with its present mission, should be phased out. A simpler process could be created to meet the continuing need for evaluation of the limited data now available to address management questions relative to the hydro biological opinion. A more ambitious and comprehensive scientific consensus process should be developed, somewhat along the lines of PATH, to address data collection design issues for the basin, to identify data needs that are critical to the actual management questions, and to ensure that data needs are met, to the extent practical, as quickly as possible, in a coordinated and efficient manner.Comments: The past programmatic need for this work was clearly stated. The continuing need is not clear. The model is not validated. This is a key issue if the differences between the competing models are still unresolved.
Comment:
Comment:
BPA Non-Discretionary. Services listed are not used by the managers, in general. Should include such services as a part of other projects. Should be linked to a PATH umbrella. Appears to duplicate work proposed in another proposal by J. Anderson. Fails to inform critical management decisions.Comment:
Technical Criteria 1: Met? Yes -Programmatic Criteria 2: Met? Inc - No regional application
Milestone Criteria 3: Met? Yes -
Resource Criteria 4: Met? No - Too much money!
Recommendation:
Money placed in BPA Tech Support Project Placeholder
Money placed in BPA Tech Support Project Placeholder
Date:
Mar 1, 2000
Mar 1, 2000
Comment:
[Decision made in 12-7-99 Council Meeting]; Funding subject to independent review: BPA non-discretionary (Technical Support Project Placeholder)