FY 2000 proposal 199303701
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Stochastic Life Cycle Model Technical Assistance |
| Proposal ID | 199303701 |
| Organization | Paulsen Environmental Research Ltd (PER Ltd.) |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator |
| Name | Charles M. Paulsen |
| Mailing address | 16016 SW Boones Ferry Rd Suite 4 Lake Oswego, OR 97035 |
| Phone / email | 5036994115 / cpaulsen@teleport.com |
| Manager authorizing this project | |
| Review cycle | FY 2000 |
| Province / Subbasin | Mainstem/Systemwide / Systemwide |
| Short description | Provide technical assistance to PATH participants in statistical analyses of hypotheses regardings past declines of ESA-listed stocks, design of adaptive manegement actions, and the future effects of salmonid management actions |
| Target species | Columbia-basin salmonids |
Project location
| Latitude | Longitude | Description |
|---|
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)
Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:
| Reviewing agency | Action # | BiOp Agency | Description |
|---|
Section 2. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishment |
|---|
| 1996 |
Performed data reconnaissance, acquisition and refinement prior to completion of retrospective analyses of specific hypotheses |
| 1997 |
For Snake River spring and summer chinook salmon, performed detailed retrospective analyses for hypotheses related to hydrosystem decisions, and the relevant hypotheses concerning climate, habitat, harvest and hatchery factors. |
| 1998 |
Performed and documented a Snake River Spring/summer chinook Decision Analysis for hydrosystem management alternatives |
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
| Project ID | Title | Description |
|---|
| 9600800 |
State, Tribal and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Participation in PATH |
PATH scientific support |
| 8910800 |
Modeling PATH/ BPA technical support Univ. of Washington |
PATH scientific support |
| 9203200 |
USFS modeling support |
PATH scientific support |
| 9601700 |
Hydrosystem Work Particiption A. Giorgi |
PATH scientific support |
| 9600600 |
Facilitation, Technical Assistance And Peer Review Of Path |
was in umbrella table |
Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2000 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Section 8. Estimated budget summary
Itemized budget
| Item | Note | FY 2000 cost |
|---|
| Personnel |
|
$150,000 |
| Fringe |
|
$0 |
| Supplies |
|
$3,000 |
| Travel |
|
$7,000 |
| Subcontractor |
|
$20,000 |
| $180,000 |
Total estimated budget
| Total FY 2000 cost | $180,000 |
| Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds | $0 |
| Total FY 2000 budget request | $180,000 |
| FY 2000 forecast from 1999 | $0 |
| % change from forecast | 0.0% |
Cost sharing
| Organization | Item or service provided | Amount | Cash or in-kind |
|---|
Other budget explanation
Schedule Constraints: Litigation among agencies. Unexpected delays in 1999 decision on Snake River. uncertain. Unexpected problems with run reconstructions and model development.
Reviews and recommendations
This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.
Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Jun 15, 1999
Comment:
Recommendation:
Do not fund. PATH, in its present form, with its present mission, should be phased out. A simpler process could be created to meet the continuing need for evaluation of the limited data now available to address management questions relative to the hydro biological opinion. A more ambitious and comprehensive scientific consensus process should be developed, somewhat along the lines of PATH, to address data collection design issues for the basin, to identify data needs that are critical to the actual management questions, and to ensure that data needs are met, to the extent practical, as quickly as possible, in a coordinated and efficient manner.
Comments:
The proposal is well written and clearly identifies the link between the objectives and programmatic needs. It is clear what he is doing and intends to pursue. He does a good job documenting his previous efforts but it is not clear how these efforts have been applied to the PATH effort. The absence of publications, given the significance of the topics that are claimed to have been addressed, is of concern. He should publish his results in peer reviewed literature. He seems to have the only proposal that addresses the recommendations of the SRP to simplify the modeling.
Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
Comment:
Recommendation:
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
Comment:
PATH projects reviewed in detail last year, little has changed. Question amount of hours. Needs to be related through an umbrella. Due to budget constraints, AFM suggests holding these projects to the FY99 funding level.
Recommendation:
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
Comment:
Criteria all: Met? Yes - Part of 9600600 umbrella. 3% budget increase over FY99
Recommendation:
Fund for the transition period
Date:
Oct 29, 1999
Comment:
Fund for transition period. See the programmatic recommendation in project 9600600.
Recommendation:
Fund for transition
Date:
Nov 8, 1999
Comment:
Recommendation:
Money placed in BPA Tech Support Project Placeholder
Date:
Mar 1, 2000
Comment:
[Decision made in 12-7-99 Council Meeting]; Funding subject to independent review: BPA non-discretionary (Technical Support Project Placeholder)