FY 2001 Ongoing proposal 198910800

Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary

Reviews and Recommendations

Additional documents

Title	Type

Section 1. Administrative

Proposal title	Monitor and Evaluate Modeling Support
Proposal ID	198910800
Organization	University of Washington (UW)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
Name	James J. Anderson
Mailing address	1325 - 4th Ave., Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101
Phone / email	2065434772 / jim@fish.washington.edu
Manager authorizing this project	Jim Geiselman, BPA
Review cycle	FY 2001 Ongoing
Province / Subbasin	Systemwide / Mainstem Columbia
Short description	Develop models and analyses to test hypotheses underlying key salmon recovery management decisions, apply decision analysis to evaluate alternative management strategies, and assist in designing research, monitoring and adaptive management experiments.
Target species

Project location

Latitude	Longitude	Description

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-reported:

RPA

Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agency	Action #	BiOp Agency	Description

Section 2. Past accomplishments

Year	Accomplishment
1995	The Mainstem passage and Adult Harvest models, CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2 were completed and calibrated. Theory and calibration manuals were prepared.
	Participated in in-season database development. Began analyzing the impact of ocean conditions on smolt survival.
1996	Revised and recalibrated CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2. Successfully ported CRiSP.2 from Unix platform to Windows 95, making it more accessible to the public. Revised manuals for both models.
	Expanded our in-season database that gave regional fisheries community real-time access to river and fish passage conditions through the World Wide Web. Provided real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks at sites
	in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Published daily predictions on the World Wide Web. Continued the impact of ocean analysis.
1997	Improved DART web database. Completed manual update for CRiSP.2 for the on-line help. Released CRiSP.2 Windows NT/95 and an alpha version of CRiSP.1 for Windows NT/95.
	Continued a combined effort between CRiSP and Real-Time (developed under Dr. John Skalski) to provide real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks. Implemented web based gas predictions for in-season management of the
	impacts of the hydrosystem on gas levels in the river.
1998	Added new gas mortality algorithms to the CRiSP1.6 smolt passage model. Updated the survival calibration tool for CRiSP 1.6. Updated in-season and post-season analyses.
	Maintained and monitored Columbia Basin Research (CBR) web pages and answered requested information from the public as they are received.
1999	Completed development and calibration of CRiSP1.6 model. Updated user's manual for CRiSP1.6 and made it accessible to the public (www.cbr.washington.edu).
	Continued to publish daily predictions of gas levels and smolt passage on the web page (www.cbr.washington.edu).
	Began development of CRiSP1.7 to include smolt growth algorithms.
	Updated PIT-Tag datafiles for calibrations.
	Performed in-season analysis including pre-season forecasts, updating in-season migration & post-season analysis. Provided World Wide Web access to our literature database, including a searchable index of reports, papers, and
	other technical documents relevant to salmon issues in the Pacific Northwest. Provided support to PATH analyses. Continued to answer numerous questions received from the public.
	Released user manual for the CRiSP 1.6 passage model.
	Updated COAST Harvest life cycle model as replacement for the CRiSP 2 harvest model.
	Provided analysis of the impact of harvest on endangered stocks using the COAST harvest model.
	Published scientific paper on growth and emergence of salmon fry. North American J. of Aquaculture, 61: 126-134. 1999.
	Published a paper relating fish and fleet behavior to fishery stability. Natural Resource Modeling, 12(2). 1999.
2000	Published paper on vitality based survival model. Ecological Monographs, 71(2) 2000.
	Published a chapter in the book. Chapter's title: Decadal Climate Cycles and Declining Columbia River Salmon. CRC Press 2000.
	Developed and improved tools for database analysis javaDART (http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/javadart/index.html).
	Released Theory Calibration manual for CRiSP passage model.
	Submitted for publication a paper on the effects of temperature on spawning success.

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project ID	Title	Description

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2001 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2001 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Duration in FYs	Estimated 2001 cost	Subcontractor

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget

Objective	Task	Estimated 2001 cost
1. Juvenile passage	a. CRiSP 1.7 smolt passage model	$25,000
	b. Migration rate analysis publication	$25,000
	c. Analysis and publication of drawdown using individual-based model (IBM)	$25,000
	d. Analysis and publication of smolt growth dynamics	$25,000
	e. Publication of effects of flow on smolt survival	$25,000
2. Adult passage	a. Model upstream passage including harvest and straying as factors	$25,000
	b. Application of upstream model for in-season analysis	$25,000
3. Smolt estuary passage	a. Begin development of individual-based model of smolt movement in estuary.	$35,000
	b. Apply existing estuary hydrodynamic model to estuary IBM	$25,000
4. Fry emergence model	a. Complete publication of spawning/emergence dynamics paper for Methow River	$15,000
	b. Apply the spawning/emergence model to Snake River chinook	$30,000
5. In-Season analysis	a. Preseason forecast	$30,000
	b. In-season forecast	$30,000
	c. Post-season analysis	$30,000
6. Life cycle/Harvest model	a. Graduate student begins study to model ocean variability in harvest model	$25,000
	b. Begin development of fish conditions and genetic characteristics in model	$30,000
	c. Develop hatchery-wild fish genetic interaction in model	$30,000
	d. Evaluate interaction of hatcheries and wild stocks in terms of genetics and harvest	$25,000
7. Disease Modeling	a. Publication of analysis of thesis work on disease	$20,000
	b. Develop protocols for experiments on disease management	$25,000
8. Support ESA & NPPC processes	a. CRI support and review	$40,000
	b. EDT support and review	$25,000
9. Project support	a. Computer system support	$50,000
	b. Information support	$35,000
	c. Project management	$85,000

Outyear objectives-based budget

Objective	Starting FY	Ending FY	Estimated cost

Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

FY 2004	FY 2005	FY 2002	FY 2003
$854,897	$889,093	$790,400	$822,016

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget

Item	Note	FY 2001 cost
Personnel	FTE: 12 mo. salaries for PI, adm. asst., 3 scientists, 2gradstds, system adm, computer support, programmer	$397,000
Fringe	Standard UW benefit rates	$88,000
Supplies		$20,000
Travel	Trips to attend meetings in Oregon & other regional conferences.	$5,000
Indirect	26% of Modified total direct costs	$140,000
Other	Services, Lease, & Tuition fees for 6 quarters	$110,000
		$760,000

Total estimated budget

Total FY 2001 cost	$760,000
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds	$0
Total FY 2001 budget request	$760,000
FY 2001 forecast from 2000	$763,000
% change from forecast	-0.4%

Reason for change in estimated budget

Previous funding for FY2000 was spread over three contracts. These are combined into one contract for FY 2001 resulting in savings.

Cost sharing

Organization	Item or service provided	Amount	Cash or in-kind

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

REVIEW:
CBFWA Funding Recommendation

Recommendation:
Ongoing Funding: no; New Funding: no

Date:
Jul 14, 2000

Comment:

The previous funding for FY 2000 was spread over three contracts. These are combined into one contract for FY 2001 resulting in savings.

The NWPPC has decided to stop funding PATH related projects. This is a PATH project and should not be funded to remain consistent with the NWPPC's recommendation for tribal, state and federal agency participation in PATH.

This project fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.

REVIEW:
BPA Funding Recommendation

Recommendation:
Combine into Technical Support Program

Date:
Sep 8, 2000

Comment:

BPA proposes combining many of the tasks associated with these projects into what is now referred to as the Technical Support Project. Funding for specific tasks would not be associated with a specific project in the Council's Direct Program. The Technical Support Project would provide analytical capabilities and analyses needed for fish mitigation and fish impact assessments required of BPA and other federal agencies for compliance with ESA, NEPA, the NW Power Act, and the Clean Water Act. It provides critical analyses needed for management decisions on both a real-time and planning horizon basis and an assessment of the implications of those decisions. Much of this work is currently both direct and indirect support for ESA Biological Assessments and Biological Opinion (BO) consultations, and compliance with multiple analytical, research, and monitoring RPAs of the BO. Parallel analytical work is performed to support our oversight, coordination, and implementation responsibilities for the regional Fish and Wildlife Program. Following is a list of Technical Support Project tasks that BPA believes may be required during FY01 and estimated costs.

Task	ESTIMATED FY01 COST
Participation, critical review, and coordination with NMFS CRI analyses	$100,000
Participation, critical review and coordination with NPPC EDT analyses	$50,000
Juvenile and adult fish passage modeling development, application, and data support	$70,000
Conservation biology /extinction risk applications for recovery plans	$50,000
Hydro measures assessments	$50,000
Habitat measures and watershed assessments	$150,000
Hatchery and harvest measures assessments	$50,000
One-year and five-year Action Plan development and review	$100,000
Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Plan development/evaluation	$100,000
Management framework and performance measures development and application	$50,000
BiOp consultation and review	$50,000
Record of Decision development and review	$50,000
Regional scientific forums/workgroups participation and coordination	$50,000
Life-cycle modeling	$50,000
Program integration and assessment of progress toward meeting mitigation and recovery goals	$50,000
TOTAL	$1,200,000

REVIEW:
NWPPC Funding Recommendation

Recommendation:
Do Not Fund

Date:
Sep 13, 2000

Comment:

Bonneville will fund any future contracts from technical support placeholder