FY 2001 Ongoing proposal 199105100
Contents
Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary
Reviews and Recommendations
Additional documents
| Title | Type |
|---|
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Monitoring and Evaluation Statistical Support |
| Proposal ID | 199105100 |
| Organization | University of Washington (UW) |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator | |
| Name | John R. Skalski |
| Mailing address | UW School of Fisheries, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101-2509 |
| Phone / email | 2066164851 / jrs@fish.washington.edu |
| Manager authorizing this project | Donald W. Allen |
| Review cycle | FY 2001 Ongoing |
| Province / Subbasin | Systemwide / Systemwide |
| Short description | Develops statistical methods for monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provides added-value analyses and statistical support to address fisheries regional issues. Provides smolt migration timing predictions on the internet. |
| Target species | |
Project location
| Latitude | Longitude | Description |
|---|
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)
Sponsor-reported:
| RPA |
|---|
Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:
| Reviewing agency | Action # | BiOp Agency | Description |
|---|
Section 2. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishment |
|---|---|
| 1991 | Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and difficulties establishing travel time relationship with existing data. |
| 1992 | Report on a "strawman" smolt monitoring design for the Snake/Columbia River systems. This strawman became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River. |
| 1993 | Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems. |
| 1994 | Development and testing of Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of spring runs of wild Snake River spring/summer chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time. |
| 1995 | Refinement of RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software and initial testing of RealTime Passage Index Forecaster software to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam. |
| 1995 | Report on transportation benefits analysis methods showed estimation differences among investigators may be related to analysis methods selected. Recommendations on proper statistical models included. |
| 1996 | RealTime model of this project linked with CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to include Lower Snake River hydroprojects and McNary Dam. |
| 1996 | Investigated extending real-time outmigration predictions to Mid-Columbia hydroprojects. Expansion of internet access to cover historical run-timing and flow data at all major hydroprojects. |
| 1996 | Expansion of online interactive information to include in-season time series of PIT detections for NMFS Snake River evolutionary significant units (ESUs) as they pass through hydroprojects. |
| 1996 | Report on Priest Rapids hatchery returns of fall chinook versus river conditions which found upstream-downstream study designs to be of limited statistical reliability. |
| 1997 | RealTime predictions continued, along with addition of Redfish Lake sockeye salmon and steelhead. |
| 1997 | Investigations included study of effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of fish guidance efficiency, and spill effectiveness from PIT-tag data and the estimation of season-wide survival rates and smolt growth rates. |
| 1998 | Completed study of relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. |
| 1998 | Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag, and balloon-tag studies in explaining Lower Granite Dam project survival of outmigrating salmonid smolts. |
| 1999 | Completed study of relationship between spring chinook age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. |
| 1999 | Assessed the validity of using Rice Island PIT-tag recoveries in estimating smolt survival through the Bonneville project. |
| 1999 | Assessed the feasibility of using hatchery rearing information to assess smolt quality and subsequent downriver migration performance in cooperation with USGS. |
| 2000 | Completed study of relationships between fall chinook age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions. |
| 2000 | Completed synthesis and comparison of smolt survival estimates as generated with different technologies and experimental protocols. |
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
| Project ID | Title | Description |
|---|
Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. In-season statistical support | 1a. Provide RealTime predictions. | Ongoing | $65,500 | |
| 1b. Develop improved in-season prediction tools. | Ongoing | $10,000 | ||
| 2. Statistical analysis of historical tagging data | 2a. Continued analysis of adult returns and relationships between stocks, years, and river conditions from PIT-tags. | Ongoing | $61,000 | |
| 2b. Continued analysis of spawner-recruit data to investigate any changes in productivity and recommend survey improvements. | Ongoing | $67,500 | ||
| 2c. Continued investigation of relationships between smolt conditions and outmigration performance. | Ongoing | $57,500 | ||
| 2d. Analysis of adult PIT-tag returns related to adult PIT-tag interrogation system. | Ongoing | $16,700 | ||
| 2e. Analysis of adult telemetry data for design purposes. | Ongoing | $8,600 | ||
| 3. Statistical support for region | 3a. BPA technical support. | Ongoing | $36,500 | |
| 3b. Northwest technical support | Ongoing | $15,000 | ||
| 3c. Analysis of hatchery rearing factors and returns in collaboration with USGS | Ongoing | $30,000 |
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
| FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2002 | FY 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $342,000 | $359,000 | $386,700 | $351,000 |
Section 8. Estimated budget summary
Itemized budget
| Item | Note | FY 2001 cost |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel | $192,544 | |
| Fringe | Includes benefits, graduate operating fee | $48,136 |
| Supplies | Includes services, software, equipment | $18,382 |
| Travel | $3,200 | |
| Indirect | 26% | $68,188 |
| Other | Lease | $37,850 |
| $368,300 | ||
Total estimated budget
| Total FY 2001 cost | $368,300 |
| Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds | $0 |
| Total FY 2001 budget request | $368,300 |
| FY 2001 forecast from 2000 | $343,000 |
| % change from forecast | 7.4% |
Reason for change in estimated budget
Increase in lease rate for facilities and expanded scope of work.
Reason for change in scope
The new task includes analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River.
Cost sharing
| Organization | Item or service provided | Amount | Cash or in-kind |
|---|
Reviews and recommendations
This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.
CBFWA Funding Recommendation
Ongoing Funding: no; New Funding: no
Jul 14, 2000
Comment:
There is an increase in lease rate for facilities and expanded scope of work.The new task includes analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River (Objective 2, Tasks d and e for a total of $25,300). This task has not been technically reviewed by CBFWA and appears to be duplicative of a new task within project 8910700.
The objectives are not clearly defined. This project appears to be an open-ended contract for statistical support on retainer. There appears to be no specific objectives with deliverables and due dates. It fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.
BPA Funding Recommendation
Fund under Technical Support Project
Sep 8, 2000
Comment:
CBFWA comment: There is an increase in lease rate for facilities and expanded scope of work. The new task includes analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River (Objective 2, Tasks d and e for a total of $25,300). This task has not been technically reviewed by CBFWA and appears to be duplicative of a new task within project 8910700.BPA response: With regard to the "Lease Rate": The increase in lease rate results from an expiration of the old lease and an increase in the new lease rate due to market conditions.
With regard to the New Support Task: A new support task, added for FY2001 under the element that provides statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community, is the analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River. The successful juvenile PIT-tag studies in the Snake-Columbia River Basin occurred in large part due to the collaboration of biologists, engineers, data managers, and statisticians during the development of this technology. The juvenile PIT-tag facilities were engineered from the onset to provide the quality and quantity of data needed to successfully conduct juvenile survival and travel time studies. This same strategy of a coordinated interdisciplinary team (Application-Based Performance Requirements Evaluation Team) is being used to develop adult PIT-tag detection capabilities in the Basin. Results of the technical evaluation team are reported to the interagency Adult PIT Tag Oversight Team (APTOC). For consistency and application of the best available statistical methods to this effort, BPA has tasked the technical services of two UW projects to participate in the technical evaluation process. The technical services provided by these two projects are not duplicative. Project 198910700 is providing the statistical guidance based on the proven Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to determine minimum system design requirements for an adult detection system. Project 199105100 is being used to analyze historical adult PIT-tag detections at Lower Granite Dam and summarize radiotelemetry findings from the University of Idaho to identify performance levels needed for precise estimation of ocean survival and inriver survival of adults. The results of the detection efficiency requirements for a successful investigation, in turn, are providing guidance to the engineers designing and installing these detection facilities. The goal is to have an operational adult detection capability from the onset that will meet the expectations and needs of the fisheries managers as soon as possible. The product deliverable(s) from the technical services of these two UW projects will be technical reports to the evaluation team.
These reports will be available to the FWP and the fisheries community through the technical report series, "The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin."
CBFWA comment: The objectives are not clearly defined. This project appears to be an open-ended contract for statistical support on retainer. There appear to be no specific objectives with deliverables and due dates. It fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.
BPA response: BPA contends that the information and capabilities provided by this project are needed to help BPA and the FWP satisfy ESA responsibilities related to implementation of a comprehensive research monitoring and evaluation program. Ongoing tasks of this project are to:
Provide statistical analyses of historical tagging data to extract extra-value information on salmonid population dynamics and their interactions with the environment, and provide statistical guidance on the design and analysis of fisheries tagging studies. Provide in-season statistical support by providing real-time analyses of smolt outmigration dynamics for ESA demes and runs-at-large for the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Provide BPA and the northwest fisheries community with professional support as needed in the design, analysis, and interpretation of fisheries tagging studies.
These tasks provide an interrelated set of goals whose aim is to assure that the maximum information is extracted from the myriad of tagging programs in a cost-effective manner for the benefit of all members of the fisheries community.
The primary objective of Project 199105100 is to perform value-added analyses of existing salmonid tagging data, provide insights into the life history of recovering salmonid stocks, and guidance on the design of future fish tagging studies. A wealth of information exists in the current coded-wire-tag (CWT) and PIT-tag databases. The spatial and temporal breadth of these databases often exceeds the interests of the individual investigator contributing to the data. Individual investigators will typically only analyze their data for the immediate goals of their separate studies. However, the composite data includes information on spatial and temporal trends of potential importance to the fisheries community and beyond the immediate interests of the studies that generated the data. The unique goal of this project is to extract this meta-information to better interpret large-scale trends affecting salmonid recovery.
By performing value-added analyses of historical data, this project serves several purposes:
- Provides managers with information that might not be available if tagging data were analyzed solely for the immediate needs of individual studies.
- Provides guidance on the best methods for analyzing these long-term databases for consistency and maximum information extraction.
- Provides an empirically based alternative to complex model interpretations of the data.
- Provides empirical information to better design future studies so that study goals can be obtained with minimal expense or failure.
The analytical and information support services provided by this contract will continue to be needed in the future to help meet the continuing demands for information available for both in-season management of fish and river resources and decision making related to fish mitigation programs. The specific analytical support activities required each year will change to meet the needs of BPA and the Northwest fisheries community in their ongoing efforts to enhance and recover Columbia River Basin salmon runs. BPA intends to fund this work under its Technical Support Project.
Comment:
Bonneville requires, but has not defined planned budget. This assumes same as FY2000.NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review
expense
May 2005
| FY05 NPCC start of year: | FY06 NPCC staff preliminary: | FY06 NPCC July draft start of year: |
| $394,655 | $394,655 | $394,655 |
Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website