FY 2001 Ongoing proposal 199800100
Contents
Section 1. General administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget summary
Reviews and Recommendations
Additional documents
| Title | Type |
|---|
Section 1. Administrative
| Proposal title | Analytical Support - ESA Biological Assessments |
| Proposal ID | 199800100 |
| Organization | Hinrichsen Environmental Services (HES) |
| Proposal contact person or principal investigator | |
| Name | Richard A. Hinrichsen |
| Mailing address | 3216 NE 45TH PL STE 303W Seattle, WA 98105-4028 |
| Phone / email | 2065278991 / hinrich@seanet.com |
| Manager authorizing this project | Richard A. Hinrichsen |
| Review cycle | FY 2001 Ongoing |
| Province / Subbasin | Systemwide / Systemwide |
| Short description | Evaluate life-stage specific jeopardy standards, risk assessment models used for gauging salmon population responses to management actions, and experimental management designs. |
| Target species | |
Project location
| Latitude | Longitude | Description |
|---|
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)
Sponsor-reported:
| RPA |
|---|
Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:
| Reviewing agency | Action # | BiOp Agency | Description |
|---|
Section 2. Past accomplishments
| Year | Accomplishment |
|---|---|
| 1998 | Developed alternative model structures for use in retrospective and prospective modeling in PATH. |
| 1998 | Developed alternative hypotheses for inclusion in the PATH decision support analysis. |
| 1998 | Co-authored decision analysis report (PATH 1998). PATH. 1998. Preliminary Decision Analysis Report on Spring/Summer Chinook. |
| 1998 | Provided biological rationale of climate regime shift hypothesis used in PATH. |
| 1998 | Conducted sensitivity analysis demonstrating the influence of certain observations on PATH spawner-recruit analyses. |
| 1998 | Hinrichsen, R. A. and C. Paulsen. 1998a. Testing the Hydro-Related Extra Mortality Hypothesis. Technical report submitted to PATH. Incorporated into PATH Weight of Evidence Report Appendix (submission 3). June 10, 1988. |
| 1998 | Hinrichsen, R.A. and C. Paulsen. 1998b. Weighting and sensitivity analysis difficulties with an unbalanced design. PATH memo submitted April 29, 1998. |
| 1998 | Paulsen, C. and R. A. Hinrichsen. 1998. Hatchery Hypothesis: Variation in releases of Snake River hatchery spring/summer chinook is associated with variation in extra mortality of naturally produced Snake River spring/summer chinook. PATH memo. June 12, 1 |
| 1998 | PATH. 1998. PATH Weight of Evidence Report, August 11, 1998 |
| 1999 | C.N. Peters, D.R. Marmorek, and I. Parnell (eds.). 1999. PATH Decision Analysis Report for Snake River Fall Chinook. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, 332 pp. |
| 1999 | Developed fall chinook life-cycle model for decision analysis. |
| 1999 | Showed how Snake River Fall life-cycle model results depended critically on a single spawner-recruit observation. |
| 1999 | Developed alternative hypotheses to explain declines in Fall chinook numbers over brood years 1964-1991. |
| 1999 | Showed that with low transportation effectiveness estimated by some PATH models, that transportation should be immediately halted for Snake River fall chinook. |
| 2000 | Peters C.N. and D.R. Marmorek (compls./eds.) 2000. PATH: Preliminary Evaluation of the Learning Opportunities and Biological Consequences of Monitoring and Experimental Management Actions. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, 150 pp. |
| 2000 | Developed a simplified life-cycle model for screen experimental management designs targeting Snake River spring chinook. |
| 2000 | Co-authored a report showing in detail the assumptions and results of the experimental management life-cycle model. (Peters and Marmorek 2000) |
| 2000 | Determined the likelihood and time required to detect various experimental effects for different experimental management actions (hatchery manipulations, carcass introductions, transportation evaluation, and Snake River drawdown). |
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
| Project ID | Title | Description |
|---|
Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Review and develop life-cycle models. | a. Develop and run life-cycle model for probabilities of extinction and meeting jeopardy standards. | 5 | $20,000 | |
| b. Evaluate effect of management actions on probabilities of extinction and meeting recovery standards. | 5 | $20,000 | ||
| c. Review/compare various life-cycle models and their results. | 5 | $20,000 | ||
| 2. Design experimental management actions. | a. Use the life-cycle model to help design experimental management actions that will increase learning and decrease population risk. | 5 | $24,000 | |
| 3. Evaluate survival targets and monitoring and evaluation. | a. Evaluate the statistical properties of survival targets. | 5 | $24,000 | |
| b. Determine the level of confidence in stage-based survival estimates. | 5 | $22,000 |
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase
| FY 2005 | FY 2003 | FY 2004 | FY 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $160,000 | $140,000 | $150,000 | $135,000 |
Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase
Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase
Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Task-based budget
| Objective | Task | Duration in FYs | Estimated 2001 cost | Subcontractor |
|---|
Outyear objectives-based budget
| Objective | Starting FY | Ending FY | Estimated cost |
|---|
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
Section 8. Estimated budget summary
Itemized budget
| Item | Note | FY 2001 cost |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel | FTE: 1 | $128,000 |
| Travel | $2,000 | |
| $130,000 | ||
Total estimated budget
| Total FY 2001 cost | $130,000 |
| Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds | $0 |
| Total FY 2001 budget request | $130,000 |
| FY 2001 forecast from 2000 | $130,000 |
| % change from forecast | 0.0% |
Reason for change in scope
The scope of the work has changed to involve more interaction with other analytical processes that were begun in 1999, including the NMFS CRI analysis. The project has evolved from being part of the PATH to providing independent scientific analyses required by BPA for ESA Biological Opinions, NEPA Environmental Impact Statements, and In-Season management decisions. In addition, the project provides technical support for BPA’s input to regional fish recovery efforts such as the Federal All-H Caucus Process and the NPPC Framework Process.
Cost sharing
| Organization | Item or service provided | Amount | Cash or in-kind |
|---|
Reviews and recommendations
This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.
CBFWA Funding Recommendation
Ongoing Funding: no; New Funding: no
Jul 14, 2000
Comment:
The NWPPC has decided to stop funding PATH related projects. This is a PATH project and should not be funded to remain consistent with the Council recommendation for tribal, state and federal agency participation in PATH.This work has not been technically reviewed by this SRT.
The scope of the work has changed to involve more interaction with other analytical processes that were begun in 1999, including the NMFS CRI analysis. The project has evolved from being part of the PATH to providing the independent scientific analyses required by BPA for ESA Biological Opinions, NEPA Environmental Impact Statements, and In-Season management decisions. In addition, the project provides technical support for BPA's input to regional fish recovery efforts such as the Federal All-H Caucus Process and the NWPPC Framework Process.
This project fails to inform critical management decisions. This project should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.
BPA Funding Recommendation
Combine into Technical Support Program
Sep 8, 2000
Comment:
BPA proposes combining many of the tasks associated with these projects into what is now referred to as the Technical Support Project. Funding for specific tasks would not be associated with a specific project in the Council's Direct Program. The Technical Support Project would provide analytical capabilities and analyses needed for fish mitigation and fish impact assessments required of BPA and other federal agencies for compliance with ESA, NEPA, the NW Power Act, and the Clean Water Act. It provides critical analyses needed for management decisions on both a real-time and planning horizon basis and an assessment of the implications of those decisions. Much of this work is currently both direct and indirect support for ESA Biological Assessments and Biological Opinion (BO) consultations, and compliance with multiple analytical, research, and monitoring RPAs of the BO. Parallel analytical work is performed to support our oversight, coordination, and implementation responsibilities for the regional Fish and Wildlife Program. Following is a list of Technical Support Project tasks that BPA believes may be required during FY01 and estimated costs.
| Task | ESTIMATED FY01 COST |
|---|---|
|
Participation, critical review, and coordination with NMFS CRI analyses |
$100,000 |
|
Participation, critical review and coordination with NPPC EDT analyses |
$50,000 |
|
Juvenile and adult fish passage modeling development, application, and data support |
$70,000 |
|
Conservation biology /extinction risk applications for recovery plans |
$50,000 |
|
Hydro measures assessments |
$50,000 |
|
Habitat measures and watershed assessments |
$150,000 |
|
Hatchery and harvest measures assessments |
$50,000 |
|
One-year and five-year Action Plan development and review |
$100,000 |
|
Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Plan development/evaluation |
$100,000 |
|
Management framework and performance measures development and application |
$50,000 |
|
BiOp consultation and review |
$50,000 |
|
Record of Decision development and review |
$50,000 |
|
Regional scientific forums/workgroups participation and coordination |
$50,000 |
|
Life-cycle modeling |
$50,000 |
|
Program integration and assessment of progress toward meeting mitigation and recovery goals |
$50,000 |
| TOTAL | $1,200,000 |
Comment:
Bonneville will fund any future contracts from technical support placeholder