Return to Proposal Finder FY 1999 Proposal 199303701

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Objectives, tasks and schedules
Section 5. Budget
Section 6. References
Section 7. Abstract

Reviews and Recommendations
Title Type File Size File Date

Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Technical Assitance With Life Cycle Modeling
BPA Project Proposal Number 199303701
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
Paulsen Environmental Research Ltd.
Business acronym (if appropriate) PER Ltd.

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name Charles M. Paulsen
Mailing Address 16016 SW Boones Ferry Rd Suite 4
City, State, Zip Lake Oswego, OR 97035
Phone 5036994115
Fax 5036994117
Manager of program authorizing this project
Review Cycle FY 1999
Province Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
Short Description Assist regional management agencies in evaluating how changes in hydro and hatchery operation, climate, and habitat may affect survival and recovery of ESA-listed salmonids
Target Species

Project Location

[No information]

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal

NPPC Program Measure Number(s) which this project addresses: 3.2F2, 4.3, 5.0A, 7.1E
FWS/NMFS Biological Opinion Number(s) which this project addresses: NMFS BO RPA 13; RPA A17; Program Support
Other Planning Document References

CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous

Section 2. Past Accomplishments

n/a or no information

Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

Project ID Title Description Umbrella
9601700 Technical Support for PATH - Chapman Consulting Data exchange, review of reports, coordination No
9600600 PATH- Facilitation, Technical Assistance, Peer Review Review of reports, report compilation, coordination No
9600800 PATH- Participation by State and Tribal Agencies Data exchange, review of reports No
9720320 Life Cycle Modeling for System and Subbasin Planning in Snake River Data exchange, coordination No
9700200 PATH- UW Technical Support Data exchange, coordination No
9800100 Analytical Support-- PATH and ESA Biological Assessments Statistical methods development, review of reports No

Section 4. Objectives, Tasks and Schedules

Objectives and Tasks

Objective Task
1. Improve understanding of relationships betweeen land management patterns and ESA spring/summer chinook and steelhead parr-to-smolt survival a. Revise and update exisiting and ongoing (FY98) use of Snake River PIT tag data and land management data and methods
. b. Apply methods developed under [1a] to Snake River natural steelhead
2. Improve understanding of effects of hatchery releases on spring/summer chinook spawner-recruit survival a. Revise and update ongoing (FY98) use of data on spawner-recruit survival and subbasin releases
3. Improve understanding of the effects of ocean conditions on Columbia Basin chinook a. Revise and update existing ongoing (FY98) use of coded wire tag, spawner-recruit data, and their relationship to major ocean condition indicators
4. Improve understanding of potential information gains from adaptive management strategies a. Investigate potential of adaptive management strategies to generate information to resolve critical uncertainties in ESA stock survival and recovery
5. Participate in PATH process and disseminate research results a. Improve research products under this contract and related ones via participation in PATH discussions, meetings, and reviews; disseminate research results via refereed journals, as appropriate

Objective Schedules and Costs

Objective Start Date End Date Measurable Biological Objectives Milestone FY 2000 Cost %
1 10/01/98 10/01/99 25.0%
2 10/01/98 10/01/99 15.0%
3 10/01/98 10/01/99 20.0%
4 10/01/98 10/01/99 20.0%
5 10/01/98 10/01/00 20.0%

Section 5. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 1999 Cost
Personnel $135,000
Supplies Statistical software purchase and leasing $ 3,000
Travel 1 trip per month at $500-$600 per trip $ 7,000
Subcontractor Beak Consultants Inc. $ 30,000
Total Itemized Budget $175,000

Total estimated budget

Total FY 1999 project cost $175,000
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 1999 budget request $175,000
FY 1999 forecast from 1998 $ 0
% change from forecast 0.0%

Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable

Reason for change in scope

Not applicable

Cost Sharing

Not applicable

Outyear Budget Totals

2000 2001 2002 2003
All Phases $180,000 $185,000 $190,000 $195,000
Total Outyear Budgets $180,000 $185,000 $190,000 $195,000

Other Budget Explanation

Schedule Constraints: Work for FY99 depends in part on timely, successful completion of work in FY98 under this and other PATH projects. In addition, ESA-related litigation could make substantial demands on PATH analysts time in FY98 and FY99

Section 6. References

n/a or no information

Section 7. Abstract


This project is part of the PATH (Plan for Testing and Analyzing Hypotheses) program. It has three overall goals. The first is to improve our understanding of the effects several important factors on wild fish survival: habitat quality, hatchery releases, and ocean conditions. The second is to develop methods to gain the most information possible from adaptive management actions and associated monitoring activities. The third is to ensure that the results are communicated effectively to both specialist and management audiences. Research under the first goal is needed to address concerns raised in the FWP, the Gorton Amendment, and in Return to the River. The ISG report in particular raises concerns about the effectiveness of habitat enhancement actions, the potential impacts of hatchery production on wild stocks, and the way that ocean survival is viewed as a “black box” in FWP planning. The statistical methods employed are modifications of work done in FY97 and ongoing research in FY98. These past results have been favorably reviewed by PATH’s outside review team (Jeremy Collie, Brian Dennis, Saul Saila, and Carl Walters). Work for FY99 will take reviewers’ into account in planned analyses. We expect further reviews of the FY99 and future results as well. Results from these and other PATH research will be used in developing adaptive management models. The results from FY99 will be tested with new data in subsequent years. If the models are reasonable, they should be able to predict future effects (of habitat, hatchery releases, and ocean conditions) accurately. We expect that related research will extend to FY03.

Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

This project has not yet been reviewed

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