Return to Proposal Finder FY 2000 Proposal 198910700

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Objectives, tasks and schedules
Section 5. Budget
Section 6. References
Section 7. Abstract

Reviews and Recommendations
Title Type File Size File Date


Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies
BPA Project Proposal Number 198910700
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
University of Washington
Business acronym (if appropriate) UW
 

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name John R. Skalski
Mailing Address UW School of Fisheries, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
City, State, Zip Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Phone 2066164851
Fax 2066167452
E-mail jrs@fish.washington.edu
 
Manager of program authorizing this project
 
Review Cycle FY 2000
Province Mainstem/Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
 
Short Description Improve monitoring and evaluation capabilities by developing better measurement tools and study designs to estimate juvenile and adult survival. Develop statistical methods to determine salmonid survival rates and survival relationships.
Target Species Chinook salmon and steelhead


Project Location

[No information]


Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal


NPPC Program Measure Number(s) which this project addresses: NPPC Doc 94-55: 3.2, 3.2F, 4.3B, 4.3C.1, 5.0F, 5.2A.7
FWS/NMFS Biological Opinion Number(s) which this project addresses: NMFS 1995 Hydrosystem Operations BO: RPA 13, Develop comprehensive monitoring, evaluation and reseach program; RPA 13f, Evaluate juvenile survival during downstream migration; RPA 17, Test hypotheses underlying life cycle models.
Other Planning Document References NMFS 1995 Proposed Recovery Plan for Snake River Salmon: 0.3.b, Regional capabilities for biological analysis and modeling; 1.5.a, Determine effects of water withdrawals on salmon survival; 2.1.d.3, Evaluate juvenile survival during downstream migration; 2.1.d.5, Comprehensive monitoring, evaluation and research program; 2.1.d.1, Test the effects of increased spill on juvenile salmon survival; 2.6.c.3, Investigate survival rates for adult salmonids migrating upriver.


CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous


Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1989 Developed theory to assess survival effects that results from ambient river conditions.
1990 Began software development for statistical analyses, and began statistical theory to assess individual covariate effects on survival.
1991 Demonstrated ability to simultaneously assess ambient effects and individual covariate effects.
1992 Extended computer software to include analysis of group and individual covariate effects. Proposed "strawman" design for development of PIT-tag facilities on Snake/Columbia River. Developed study plan for a Snake River survival study evaluation.
1993 Completed statistical software development of analysis package--final debugging of computer program, helped facilitate Snake River survival study, and conducted analysis of hatchery survival studies.
1994 Completed SURPH statistical software and dissemination of a users manual for statistical analysis of data. Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1995 Produced a PC version of SURPH software and sample size program to design tag-release studies. Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1996 Developed statistical methods for estimating season-wide survival. Developed proper statistical model to estimate survival rates for fall chinook with residualization . Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1997 Improved statistical models and software for expanded survival experiments. Continued to support survival studies. Investigate alternative approaches to ocean survival rates. Assisted Nez Perce tribe in performing survival analyses.
1998 Developed batch analysis programs for NMFS to permit the statistical analysis of very large data sets. Developed new unified (PC and UNIX) version of SURPH with greater model specification abilities needed for paired- release investigations.
1998 Completed statistical theory for longitudinal analysis of time-varying, individual-based covariates in survival analyses.
1998 Demonstrated feasibility of extracting precise and detailed information on smolt survival and passage rates at hydroprojects using radiotelemetry models.


Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

Project ID Title Description Umbrella
8712700 Smolt Monitoring by Non-Federal Entities [PSMFC] Complementary, provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist survival analyses. No
8910800 Monitoring and Evaluation Modeling Support [UW] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9008000 Columbia Basin PIT-Tag Information System [PSMFC] Dependent, project requires high quality PIT-tag data made available through Project 90-080-00 PTAGIS database to extract PIT-tag information to analyze survival data in various formats. No
9102900 Supplementation and Survival of Fall Chinook in the Snake River [USFWS] Complementrary, provides analytical and statistical models and computer software (e.g., SURPH) for survival estimation. No
9105100 Monitoring and Evalution Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies [UW] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9302900 Survival Estimation for Dam/Reservoir Passage [NMFS] Complementary, provides analytical and statistical support to respond to NMFS requests to enhance survival estimation capabilities incorporated in Program SURPH. Responds to requests to NMFS to investigate alternative analyses. No
9303701 Technical Assistance with Life Cycle Modeling [PER Ltd.] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9503400 EW Program Support [BPA] Critical to development of improved analystical tools and consistency in survival estimation across all salmon life cycle stages to maximize learning and the ability to evaluate the success of implemented actions and identify future mitigation options. No
9600600 PATH Facilitation, Technical Assistance, & Peer Review [ESSA] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9600800 PATH - Participation by State & Tribal Agencies [ODFW] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9600801 Provide Scientific Input to PATH Process [NMFS] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9601700 Provide Technical Support in PATH [BA Inc.] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9700200 PATH-UW Technical Support Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No
9800100 Analytical Support - PATH and ESA Biological Assessments [HES] Complementary, maintains and upgrades statistical software, theory and methods for investigating juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead survival rates and relationships. No


Section 4. Objectives, Tasks and Schedules

Objectives and Tasks

Objective Task
1. Maintenance of SURPH.1 software a. Maintain SURPH software.
1. b. Maintain internet access to SURPH software.
1. c. Alter SURPH software as required to work on changing computer systems and platforms.
1. d. Respond to user questions and provide users with manuals and individual instruction.
2. Improve SURPH statistical software a. Implement new time-varying covariate analyses.
2. b. Implement goodness-of-fit and tests of model assumptions.
3. Develop generalized survival modeling for radiotelemetry investigations a. Develop interactive programming to allow user-specified model development for radiotelemetry survival analyses.
3. b. Develop guidelines for radiotelemetry survival analyses and software to identify misspecified and valid models.

Objective Schedules and Costs

Objective Start Date End Date Measurable Biological Objectives Milestone FY 2000 Cost %
1 12/01/99 11/01/00 RPA 13 25.0%
2 12/01/99 11/01/00 RPA 13 45.0%
3 12/01/99 11/01/00 RPA 13f 30.0%


Section 5. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2000 Cost
Personnel $ 96,040
Fringe $ 22,750
Supplies Includes computer upgrades, software, licenses, services, etc. $ 17,900
Operating O&M occur across a number of budget items. For FY2000, 41% of total budget = $75,821 $ 0
Travel $ 3,000
Indirect 26% of the total direct costs less costs for equipment, graduate operating fee, and office lease $ 35,100
Other Office lease $ 10,140
Total Itemized Budget $184,930


Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 project cost $184,930
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2000 budget request $184,930
FY 2000 forecast from 1999 $ 0
% change from forecast 0.0%


Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable


Reason for change in scope

Not applicable


Cost Sharing

Not applicable
 

Outyear Budget Totals

2001 2002 2003 2004
All Phases $187,000 $193,000 $195,000 $201,000
Total Outyear Budgets $187,000 $193,000 $195,000 $201,000
 

Other Budget Explanation

Schedule Constraints: Changes in the marking programs could impact survival research and scheduled analyses of these tagging studies to determine survival relationships.


Section 6. References

Reference Watershed?
Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, G. C. White, C. Brownie, and K. Pollock. 1987. Design and analysis methods for fish survival experiments based on release-recapture. Amer. Fish. Soc. Monograph No. 5. No
Clobert, J., J. D. Lebreton, and D. Allaine. 1987. A general approach to survival rate estimation by captures or resightings of marked birds. Ardea 75: 133-142. No
Clobert, J., J. D. Lebreton, M. Clobert-Gille, and H. Coquillart. 1985. The estimation of survival in bird populations by recapture or resighting of marked individuals. In Statistics in Ornithology, B. J. T. Morgan and P. M. North (Eds.) pp. 197-213. No
Cormack, R. M. 1964. Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals. Biometrika 51: 429-438. No
Diggle, P. J., K. Liang, and S. L. Zeger. 1996. Analysis of longitudinal data. Oxford Univ. Press. Oxford, UK. 253 pp. No
Jolly, G. M., 1965. Explicit estimates from capture-recapture data with both death and immigration—stochastic model. Biometrika 52: 225-247. No
Hoffmann, A. 1993. Quantifying selection in wild populations using known-fate and mark-recapture designs. Ph.D. dissertation. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA. No
Hoffmann, A., and J. R. Skalski. 1995. Inferential properties of an individual-based survival model using release-recapture data: Sample size, validity and power. J. Appl. Stat. 22: 579-595. No
Lowther, A. B. 1998. Development, expansion, and evaluation of release-recapture survival models for Snake River juvenile salmonids, with new algorithms allowing time-dependent individual covariates. Ph.D. dissertation. Univ. of Washington. No
Lowther, A. B., and J. R. Skalski. 1998a. A multinomial likelihood model for estimating survival probabilities and overwintering for fall chinook salmon using release-recapture methods. J. Agri. Biol. and Envir. Stat. 3:223-236. No
Lowther, A. B., and J. R. Skalski. 1998b. Monte-Carlo comparison of confidence interval procedures for estimating survival in a release-recapture study, with applications to Snake River salmonids. Bonneville Power Administration. Volume VII. No
Seber, G. A. F. 1965. A note on the multiple recapture census. Biometrika 52: 249-259. No
Skalski, J. R. 1998. Estimating season-wide survival rates of outmigrating smolt in the Snake River, Washington. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 55:761-769. No
Skalski, J. R., A. Hoffmann, and S. G. Smith. 1993. Testing the significance of individual- and cohort-level covariates in animal survival studies. In: Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, EURING 92, pp. 9-28. No
Skalski, J. R., and J. A. Perez-Comas. 1998. Using PIT-tag recapture probabilities to estimate project-wide fish guidance efficiency and spill effectiveness at Lower Granite Dam. Army Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla District, Walla Walla, WA. No
Skalski, J. R., R. L. Townsend, J. R. Stevenson, and A. E. Giorgi. 1998. Recommendations on the design and analysis of radiotelemetry studies of salmonid smolts to estimate survival and passage efficiencies. Volume XI. Bonneville Power Administration. No
Smith, S. G. 1991. Assessing hazards in wild populations using auxiliary variables in tag-release models. Ph.D. dissertation. University of Washington, Seattle, WA. No


Section 7. Abstract

Abstract


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

ISRP Preliminary Review , ISRP 99-2 Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Jun 15, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
Recommendation: Do not fund. PATH, in its present form, with its present mission, should be phased out. A simpler process could be created to meet the continuing need for evaluation of the limited data now available to address management questions relative to the hydro biological opinion. A more ambitious and comprehensive scientific consensus process should be developed, somewhat along the lines of PATH, to address data collection design issues for the basin, to identify data needs that are critical to the actual management questions, and to ensure that data needs are met, to the extent practical, as quickly as possible, in a coordinated and efficient manner.

Comments: There are no plans for formal evaluation other than those provided by observing the continued use of the products from this on-going project and the success of the investigators in publishing results. This appears to be redundant with 9105100. Narrative calls it complementary, but perhaps these two projects need to be combined. See comments on 9105100. The principal investigator is listed as .17 FTE but no other personnel are listed. There is inadequate detail on what the principal investigator will do. There should be a better description of indirect costs to the UW and direct costs for office space.


CBFWA: Subregional Team Comments Recommendation:
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
BPA Non-Discretionary. Services listed are not used by the managers, in general. Should include such services as a part of other projects.

CBFWA: Fish Passage Advisory Committee Comments Recommendation:
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
Criteria all: Met? No - It is unclear who is using this study and why. NMFS says they are not using this and CZES is not. It is not used by PATH therefore why continue funding?

CBFWA Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
2000
$ 0
Comment:

NWPPC Funding Recommendation , NWPPC 2000-6 Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Mar 1, 2000
2000
$184,930
Comment:
[Decision made in 12-7-99 Council Meeting]; Funding subject to independent review: BPA non-discretionary (Technical Support Project Placeholder) $184,930

NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review Funding category:
expense
Date:
May 2005
FY05 NPCC Start of Year:
$239,265
FY06 NPCC Staff Preliminary:
$239,265
FY06 NPCC July Draft Start of Year:
$239,265
Sponsor (U of W) Comments (Go to Original on NPCC Website):

Sponsor (U of W) Comments (Go to Original on NPCC Website):

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