Return to Proposal Finder FY 2000 Proposal 198910800

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Objectives, tasks and schedules
Section 5. Budget
Section 6. References
Section 7. Abstract

Reviews and Recommendations
Title Type File Size File Date

Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Monitor and Evaluate Modeling Support
BPA Project Proposal Number 198910800
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
University of Washington
Business acronym (if appropriate) UW

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name James J. Anderson
Mailing Address 1325 - 4th Ave., Suite 1820
City, State, Zip Seattle, WA 98101
Phone 2065434772
Fax 2066167452
Manager of program authorizing this project
Review Cycle FY 2000
Province Mainstem/Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
Short Description Test hypotheses underlying key salmon recovery management decisions, develop decisions analysis to evaluate alternative management strategies, and assist in designing research monitoring and adaptive management experiments.
Target Species Chinook and steelhead

Project Location

[No information]

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal

NPPC Program Measure Number(s) which this project addresses: 3.2F.1, 3.3A.1, 4.3B, 4.3C, 5.2A7
FWS/NMFS Biological Opinion Number(s) which this project addresses: Program support & NMFS BO RPA A1; A13; A16; A17
Other Planning Document References NMFS Proposed Recovery Plan Tasks 0.3.b; 2.1.d; 2.2.d; 2.11.b

CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous

Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1995 The Mainstem passage and Adult Harvest models, CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2 were completed and calibrated.
Theory and calibration manuals were prepared. Participated in in-season database development. Began analyzing the impact of ocean conditions on smolt survival.
1996 Revised and recalibrated CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2. Successfully ported CRiSP.2 from Unix platform to Windows 95, making it more accessible to the public.
Revised manuals for both models. Expanded our in-season database that gave regional fisheries community real-time access to river and fish passage conditions through the World Wide Web.
Provided real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks at sites in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Published daily predictions on the World Wide Web. Continued the impact of ocean analysis.
1997 Improved DART web database. Completed manual update for CRiSP.2 through the on-line help. Released CRiSP.2 NT/Windows 95 and an alpha version of CRiSP.1 for NT/Windows 95.
Continued a combined effort between CRiSP and RealTime (developed under Dr. John Skalski) to provide real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks.
Implemented gas predictions for in-season management of the impacts of the hydrosystem on gas levels in the river on our web site.
1998 Developed CRiSP1.6 to include gas mortality algorithm. Updated the survival calibration tool for the new version (1.6).
Updated in-season and post-season analyses.
Maintained and monitored Columbia Basin Research (CBR) web pages and answered requested information from the public as they are received.

Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

Project ID Title Description Umbrella
9601700 Provide Technical Support in PATH - BioAnalysts Inc. (Giorgi) CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. No
9600600 PATH Facilitation, Technical Assistance & Peer Review CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. No
9600800 PATH-Participation by State & Tribal Agencies CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. No
9800100 Analytical Support-PATH and ESA Biological Assessments - Hinrichsen CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. No
9303701 Technical Assistance with Life Cycle Modeling - Paulsen Environmental CRiSP model output utilized by these groups in their analyses. No
9007800 Evaluate Predator Control and Provide Technical Support for PATH Provides input for model development. No
9601900 Second Tier data base for ecosystem focus Data from this source are used for model calibration. No
9700200 UW PATH support Our specific tasks involve mainstem passage issues, effects of the ocean and estuary on survival, and harvest issues. No
8910700 Statistical Support for Salmonid Studies Information from this project is used to calibrate and validate the CRiSP models. No
9105100 Monitoring & Evaluation Statistical Report (Dr. Skalski) Cooperate with this group to produce CRiSP/Real-time outputs. No
20537 Bonneville Power Administration Non-Discretionary Projects Yes
8910800 Monitor and Evaluate Modeling Support Yes

Section 4. Objectives, Tasks and Schedules

Objectives and Tasks

Objective Task
1. Upgrade and link passage and harvest models a. Update the juvenile passage model.
1. b. Calibrate the adult upstream model.
1. c. Update the CRiSP Harvest model.
1. d. Develop JAVA-based control for model linkages.
2. IBM Tributary model a. Convene a working group of modelers and biologists.
2. b. Use the model to identify critical factors.
2. c. Use the CIFSS model to examine the mechanisms and functional forms of the impacts of stream fertilization and spawner density on salmon productivity.
3. Process models a. Vitality model.
3. b. Growth model.
3. c. Stream productivity.
4. CRiSP Realtime a. Incorporate the adult passage model predictions into in-season predictions.
4. b. Incorporate hatchery smolts into in-season predictions.
4. c. Develop algorithms for passage stress.
4. d. Maintain in-season prediction system.
4. e. Prepare post-season analysis of system.
5. Modeling information exchange a. Develop information exchange on web page.
5. b. Solicit modeling groups for information in designing the web pages.
5. c. Facilitate groups in developing and loading information.
5. d. Hold work group meetings.

Objective Schedules and Costs

Objective Start Date End Date Measurable Biological Objectives Milestone FY 2000 Cost %
1 10/01/00 09/01/01 30.0%
2 10/01/00 09/01/01 10.0%
3 10/01/00 09/01/01 15.0%
4 10/01/00 09/01/01 40.0%
5 10/01/00 09/01/01 5.0%

Section 5. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2000 Cost
Personnel Direct Salary $209,305
Fringe Standard UW benefit rates $ 47,130
Supplies $ 10,486
Operating $ 18,874
Capital Office Lease & minor equip. upgrade $ 25,751
Travel $ 3,900
Indirect 26% of Modified Total Direct Costs $ 79,221
Other Tuition fees $ 1,633
Subcontractor Lang, Railsback & Associates $ 15,000
Total Itemized Budget $411,300

Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 project cost $411,300
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2000 budget request $411,300
FY 2000 forecast from 1999 $ 0
% change from forecast 0.0%

Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable

Reason for change in scope

Not applicable

Cost Sharing

Not applicable

Outyear Budget Totals

2001 2002 2003 2004
All Phases $411,300 $411,300 $411,300 $411,300
Total Outyear Budgets $411,300 $411,300 $411,300 $411,300

Other Budget Explanation

Schedule Constraints: Uncertainties of schedules from coordinated groups may cause schedule changes.

Section 6. References

Reference Watershed?
Zabel, R.W., J.J. Anderson, and P.A. Shaw. 1998. A multiple reach model describing the migratory behavior of Snake River yearling chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences: 55:658-667. No
Zabel, R. and J.J. Anderson. 1997. A model of the travel time of migrating juvenile salmon, with an application to Snake River spring chinook salmon. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 17:93-100. No
Anderson, J.J. (in press) Decadal climate cycles and declining Columbia River salmon. In Proceedings of the Sustainable Fisheries Conference, Victoria, B.C," ed. E. Knudsen. American Fisheries Society Special publication no. 2x. Bethesda, MD No
Anderson, J.J. A vitality based model relating stressors and environmental properties to organism survival . Accepted by Ecological Monographs, 1998. No
Anderson, J.J. 1996. Review of the influence of climate on salmon. In Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses (PATH): Final report on retrospective analyses for fiscal year 1996. Compiled and edited by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, B.C. No
Anderson, J.J. , J. Hayes, P. Shaw and R. Zabel. 1996, Columbia River Salmon Passage Model CRiSP1.5: theory, Calibration and Validation. School of Fisheries University of Washington. 220 pages. No

Section 7. Abstract


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

This project has not yet been reviewed

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