Return to Proposal Finder FY 2000 Proposal 199105100

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Objectives, tasks and schedules
Section 5. Budget
Section 6. References
Section 7. Abstract

Reviews and Recommendations
Title Type File Size File Date


Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Monitoring and Evaluation Statistical Support
BPA Project Proposal Number 199105100
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
University of Washington
Business acronym (if appropriate) UW
 

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name John R. Skalski
Mailing Address School of Fisheries, UW, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
City, State, Zip Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Phone 2066164851
Fax 2066167452
E-mail jrs@fish.washington.edu
 
Manager of program authorizing this project
 
Review Cycle FY 2000
Province Mainstem/Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
 
Short Description Develops statistical methods needed in monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provides added-value analyses of tagging data to address regional issues. Provides smolt migration timing predictions on internet for the fisheries community.
Target Species Chinook salmon, coho, and steelhead


Project Location

[No information]


Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal


NPPC Program Measure Number(s) which this project addresses: NPPC Doc 94-55: 3.2F.1 Regional Analytical Methods Coordination, 3.3A.1 Coordinated Information Systen, 4.3B Development of Performance Standards, 4.3C Population Monitoring, 5.2A.7 Third-Party Evaluation of Snake River Spring Migrants
FWS/NMFS Biological Opinion Number(s) which this project addresses: NMFS 1995 Hydrosystem Operations BO: RPA 13, Develop comprehensive monitoring, evaluation and research program; RPA 16, Investigate effects of dissolved gas supersaturation; RPA 17, Test hypotheses underlying life cycle models.
Other Planning Document References NMFS 1995 Proposed Recovery Plan for Snake River Salmon: Task 0.3.a, Develop coordinated information system; Task 0.3.b, Coordinate regional approach for biological analysis and modeling; Task 2.1.d, Conduct monitoring, evaluation, and research to support flow augmentation effects; Task 21.d.2, Investigate relationships between flows and ocean survival; Task 2.1.d.3, Evaluate juvenile survival during downstream migration; Task 2.1.d.3, Evaluate effectiveness of pulsing operations; Task 2.2.d, Evaluate effects of spill on salmonid migration,; Task 2.2.d.3, Investigate the effects of dissolved gas supersaturation; Task 2.3.c, Consolidate regional efforts and capabilities to support monitoring and evaluation; Task 2.6.c, Conduct monitoring and evaluation to improve adult passage success; Task 2.11.b, Test underlying hypotheses of life cycle models.


CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous


Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1991 Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and the difficulties in establishing travel time relationships with existing data.
1992 Report on "strawman" smolt monitoring design for Snake/Columbia River systems. Report became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River.
1993 Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems.
1994 Development and testing of Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of spring runs of wild Snake River spring/summer chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time.
1995 Refinement of RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software and initial testing of RealTime Passage Index Forecaster statistical software to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam.
1996 RealTime model linked with CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to include Lower Snake River hydroprojects and McNary Dam. Expansion of internet access to include historical run timing and flow data at hydroprojects.
1997 RealTime predictions continued along with the addition of Redfish Lake sockeye salmon and steelhead. Study of effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of FGE and SE from PIT-tag data, season-wide survival rates, and growth rates.
1998 Completed study of relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as function of ocean conditions. Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag and balloon-tag studies in explaining Lower Granite Dam survival.


Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

Project ID Title Description Umbrella
8332300 Smolt Condition & Arrival Timing at Lower Granite [IDFG] Dependent. Program RealTime uses PIT-tag detections and passage index data to generate in-season, real-time, internet-based information on status and prediction of migration timing for ESA-listed wild stocks as they pass through FCRPS. No
8401400 Smolt Monitoring at Federal Dams [NMFS-ETSD] Dependent. Program RealTime uses PIT-tag detections and passage index data to generate in-season, real-time, internet-based information on status and prediction of migration timing for ESA-listed wild stocks as they pass through FCRPS. No
8712700 Smolt Monitoring by Non-Federal Entities [PSMFC] Dependent. Program RealTime uses PIT-tag detections and passage index data to generate in-season, real-time, internet-based information on status and prediction of migration timing for ESA-listed wild stocks as they pass through FCRPS. No
8910700 Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies [UW] Complementary. This project develops the statisitical methods used in providing the value-added analyses of historical tagging data. No
8910800 Monitoring and Evaluation Modeling Support [UW] Complementary. RealTime model is linked with the CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to sites below Lower Granite Dam. Supports DART which provides real-time, on-line database services and presentations. No
9008000 Columbia Basin PIT-Tag Information System (PTAGIS) [PSMFC] Dependent. Provides high quality real-time PIT-tag data made available through PTAGIS as input to the daily runs of the Program RealTime PIT-forecaster to generate internet-based predictions of run timing for individual and combined ESA wild stocks. No
9102800 Monitoring Smolt Migration of Wild Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook [NMFS] Dependent. This project PIT-tags wild ESA-listed stocks in natal streams. PIT-tag detections are used by Program RealTime the following spring to make in-season predictions for potential use by TMT and fisheries community. No
9107200 Sockeye Samon Captive Broodstock [IDFG] Complementary. This project applies Program RealTime to make run-timing predictions for Redfish Lake sockeye available for use by the TMT and fisheries community. No
9202604 Spring Chinook Salmon Early Life History [ODFW] Dependent. This project PIT-tags wild ESA-listed stocks in natal streams. PIT-tag detections are used by Program RealTime the following spring to make in-season predictions for potential use by TMT and fisheries community. No
9302900 Survival Estimation for Dam/Reservoir Passage [NMFS] Complementary, provides analytical and statistical support to respond to NMFS requests to enhance survival estimation capabilities incorporated in Program SURPH. Responds to requests to NMFS to investigate alternative analyses. No
9403300 Fish Passage Center [PSMFC] Dependent. Uses the in-season smolt index passage information that is provided by the FPC's database center in the RealTime Passage Index Forecaster program to generate on-line forecasts of in-season passage for ESA-listed wild chinook and steelhead. No
9503400 EW Program Support [BPA-UW] Complementary. Provides technical assistance and statistical support essential to BPA's independent decision-making processes through peer review of monitoring and evaluation requirements. No
9600600 PATH Facilitation, Technical Assistance & Peer Review [ESSA] Complementary. Analyzes and interprets tagging data in ways other research entities currently do not perform. Provides an added-value to historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and modeling interrelationships. No
9600800 PATH Participation by State & Tribal Agencies [ODFW] Complementary, by analyzing of historical tagging data and publishing reports which are made available to PATH. No
9601700 Technical Support for PATH [BioAnalysts] Complementary, by analyzing tagging data which is provided to PATH as requested. No
9700200 PATH-UW Technical Support Complementary. Provides analyses of selected data sets and issues related to PATH deliberations. No
20537 Bonneville Power Administration Non-Discretionary Projects Umbrella Yes


Section 4. Objectives, Tasks and Schedules

Objectives and Tasks

Objective Task
1. In-Season Statistical Support a. Provide RealTime predictions.
2. Statistical Analysis of Historical Tagging Data a. Analysis of adult returns and ocean survival using CWT data.
2. b. Analysis of adult returns using PIT-tag data.
2. c. Analysis of spawner-recruit databases.
2. d. Analysis of relation of flow pulsing and smolt outmigration dynamics.
3. Statistical Support for Region a. BPA technical support.
3. b. NW technical support.

Objective Schedules and Costs

Objective Start Date End Date Measurable Biological Objectives Milestone FY 2000 Cost %
1 01/01/00 11/01/00 RPA 13 22.0%
2 01/01/00 12/01/00 RPA 17 66.0%
3 01/01/00 12/01/00 RPA 13 12.0%


Section 5. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2000 Cost
Personnel Includes 3% raise. $158,298
Fringe $ 37,932
Supplies Includes computer upgrades, software licenses, services, etc. $ 14,669
Operating O&M costs occur across a number of budget items. For FY 2000, 41% of budget = 139,546. $ 0
Travel $ 1,700
Indirect 26% of the total direct costs less costs for equipment and office lease. $ 60,866
Other Office lease $ 16,892
Subcontractor BioAnalysts, Inc. $ 50,000
Total Itemized Budget $340,357


Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 project cost $340,357
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2000 budget request $340,357
FY 2000 forecast from 1999 $ 0
% change from forecast 0.0%


Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable


Reason for change in scope

Not applicable


Cost Sharing

Not applicable
 

Outyear Budget Totals

2001 2002 2003 2004
All Phases $343,000 $347,000 $349,000 $352,000
Total Outyear Budgets $343,000 $347,000 $349,000 $352,000
 

Other Budget Explanation

Schedule Constraints: None.


Section 6. References

Reference Watershed?
Bates, D. M., and D. G. Watts. 1988. Nonlinear regression analysis and its applications. John Wiley & Sons. New York, NY. 365 pp. No
Belsley, D. A., E. Kuh, and R. W. Weloch. 1980. Regression diagnostics, identifying influential data and sources of collinearity. Wiley & Sons. New York, NY. 292 pp. No
Greenwood, P. E., and M. S. Nikulin. 1996. A guide to chi-squared testing. Wiley & Sons. New York, NY. 280 pp. No
Hosmer, D. W., and S. Lemeshow. 1989. Applied logistic regression. Wiley & Sons. New York, NY. 307 pp. No
Kendall, M., and A. Stuart. 1979. The advanced theory of statistics. Volume 2. MacMillan. New York, NY. 748 pp. No
McCullagh, P., and J. A. Nelder. 1989. Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall. New York, NY. 511 pp. No
Perez-Comas, J. A., and J. R. Skalski. 1998a. Preliminary assessment of the effects of pulsed flows on smolt migratory behavior. Volume IV in the Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia River Basin. BPA. No
Perez-Comas, J. A., and J. R. Skalski. 1998b. Analysis of in-river growth for PIT-tagged spring chinook salmon smolt. Volume V in the Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia River Basin. BPA. No
Newman, K. 1998a. Estimating salmonid survival with combined PIT-CWT tagging. Volume II in the Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia River. Bonneville Power Administration. Portland, OR. No
Newman, K. 1998b. Experiment design and statistical models to estimate the effect of transportation on survival of Columbia River system salmonids. Volume III in the Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia River. BPA. No
Ryding, K. E. 1998. Analyzing adult retuns to assess ocean effects and salmon survival relationships. MS thesis. Univ. of Washington. Seattle, WA. No
Ryding, K. E., and J. R. Skalski. 1998. Multivariate regression relationships between ocean conditions and early marine survival of coho salmon. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. (submitted). No
Seber, G. A. F. 1982. The estimation of animal abundance and related parameters. Macmillan. New York, NY. No
Seber, G. A. F., and C. J. Wild. 1989. Nonlinear regression analysis and its applications. Wiley & Sons. New York, NY. 365 pp. No
Skalski, J. R. 1996. 1996 Post-season evaluation of run-timing predictions of outmigrating smolt at Rock Island, Wanapum and Priest Rapids Dams. Grant County Public Utility District. Ephrata, WA. No
Skalski, J. R. 1997. 1997 Post-season evaluation of run-timing predictions of outmigrating smolt at Rock Island, Wanapum and Priest Rapids Dams. Grant County Public Utility District. Ephrata, WA. No
Skalski, J. R., R. L. Townsend, R. F. Donnelly, and R. W. Hilborn. 1996. The relationship between survival of Columbia River fall chinook salmon and in-river environmental factors. Bonneville Power Administration. Portland, Oregon. 246 pp. No
Townsend, R. L., P. Westhagen, D. Yasuda, and J. R. Skalski. 1995. Evaluation of the 1994 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin. Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, Oregon. No
Townsend, R. L., P. Westhagen, D. Yasuda, J. R. Skalski, and K. Ryding. 1996. Evaluation of the 1995 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Bonneville Power Administration. No
Townsend, R. L., D. Yasuda, and J. R. Skalski. 1996. Evaluation of the 1995 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Subyearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, Oregon. No
Townsend, R. L., D. Yasuda, and J. R. Skalski. 1997. Evaluation of the 1996 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Spring/Summer Yearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Technical report to BPA. No
Townsend, R. L., D. Yasuda, and J. R. Skalski. 1998. Evaluation of the 1996 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Subyearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, Oregon. No


Section 7. Abstract

Abstract


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

ISRP Preliminary Review , ISRP 99-2 Recommendation:
Fund for one year
Date:
Jun 15, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
Recommendation: Fund for one year. Subsequent funding contingent on programmatic review. This entire set of smolt monitoring projects needs to receive a programmatic review with the goal to create a central data repository, to provide a central facility for providing routine statistical analysis, and, most crucially, to develop a basin-wide, coordinated design for data collection that is gauged to meet the information needs for management.

Comments: This well-written proposal clearly addresses the need for this work and its relationship to other projects. The work allows strong collaborative effort with other projects. The objectives and associated tasks are clearly stated and aligned. There are no plans for formal evaluation other than those provided by observing the continued use of the products from this on-going project and the success of the investigators in publishing results. The budget and personnel are not adequately justified. The relation to proposal 8910700 should be better explained. The proposal should state what they are going to do with the CWT, PIT tag, and other data listed in the tasks and objectives.

More than any of the other smolt monitoring proposals, this one clearly identifies the need for coordination. On page 10 it states: "Despite these overwhelming needs, given the high expenditures on tagging and data collection, no agreement on a coordinated information system for anadromous fish data, methods of their analyses, or timely dissemination of information to the public has been agreed upon." The proposal does not suggest a solution. This problem affects the entire smolt monitoring program.


CBFWA: Subregional Team Comments Recommendation:
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
BPA Non-Discretionary. Objectives not clearly defined. Open-ended contract for statistical support on retainer. Fails to inform critical management decisions. Should include such services as a part of other projects tried to specific tasks or products.

CBFWA: Fish Passage Advisory Committee Comments Recommendation:
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
Technical Criteria 1: Met? Inc - Objectives not clearly defined

Programmatic Criteria 2: Met? Yes -

Milestone Criteria 3: Met? Yes -

Resource Criteria 4: Met? Yes -


CBFWA Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Do Not Fund
Date:
Aug 20, 1999
2000
$ 0
Comment:

ISRP Review , ISRP 99-3 Recommendation:
Rank 19
Date:
Oct 8, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
This project with an excellent history of success serves a need in the program for an independent analysis of monitoring for migration and survival of juveniles and adults. Given that it is an ongoing project, the innovative part would come in the form of 'value added' analysis of available data. The project would benefit existing projects and it has systemwide significance.

ISRP Addendum Review , ISRP 99-3 Recommendation:
Rank 19
Date:
Oct 8, 1999
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
Rank Comments: This project with an excellent history of success serves a need in the program for an independent analysis of monitoring for migration and survival of juveniles and adults. Given that it is an ongoing project, the innovative part would come in the form of 'value added' analysis of available data. The project would benefit existing projects and it has systemwide significance.

NWPPC Funding Recommendation , NWPPC 2000-6 Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Mar 1, 2000
2000
$340,357
Comment:
[Decision made in 2-2-00 Council Meeting]; BPA non-discretionary technical support project

NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review Funding category:
expense
Date:
May 2005
FY05 NPCC Start of Year:
$394,655
FY06 NPCC Staff Preliminary:
$394,655
FY06 NPCC July Draft Start of Year:
$394,655
Sponsor (U of W) Comments (Go to Original on NPCC Website):

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