Return to Proposal Finder FY 2000 Proposal 199303701

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Objectives, tasks and schedules
Section 5. Budget
Section 6. References
Section 7. Abstract

Reviews and Recommendations
Title Type File Size File Date

Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Stochastic Life Cycle Model Technical Assistance
BPA Project Proposal Number 199303701
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
Paulsen Environmental Research Ltd
Business acronym (if appropriate) PER Ltd.

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name Charles M. Paulsen
Mailing Address 16016 SW Boones Ferry Rd Suite 4
City, State, Zip Lake Oswego, OR 97035
Phone 5036994115
Fax 5036994117
Manager of program authorizing this project
Review Cycle FY 2000
Province Mainstem/Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
Short Description Provide technical assistance to PATH participants in statistical analyses of hypotheses regardings past declines of ESA-listed stocks, design of adaptive manegement actions, and the future effects of salmonid management actions
Target Species Columbia-basin salmonids

Project Location

[No information]

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal

NPPC Program Measure Number(s) which this project addresses: 3.2.A, 3.2C, 3.2.F , 4.2a, 4.3, 7.1E
FWS/NMFS Biological Opinion Number(s) which this project addresses: NMFS Hydrosystem BO RPA 13; RPA A17
Other Planning Document References Multi-Species Framework Briefing Nov. 1998: Analytical Approach page 21, NMFS Recovery Plan task 0.3.b and 2.11.b

CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous

Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1996 Performed data reconnaissance, acquisition and refinement prior to completion of retrospective analyses of specific hypotheses
1997 For Snake River spring and summer chinook salmon, performed detailed retrospective analyses for hypotheses related to hydrosystem decisions, and the relevant hypotheses concerning climate, habitat, harvest and hatchery factors.
1998 Performed and documented a Snake River Spring/summer chinook Decision Analysis for hydrosystem management alternatives

Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

Project ID Title Description Umbrella
9600800 State, Tribal and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Participation in PATH PATH scientific support No
8910800 Modeling PATH/ BPA technical support Univ. of Washington PATH scientific support No
9203200 USFS modeling support PATH scientific support No
9601700 Hydrosystem Work Particiption A. Giorgi PATH scientific support No
9600600 Facilitation, Technical Assistance And Peer Review Of Path was in umbrella table No

Section 4. Objectives, Tasks and Schedules

Objectives and Tasks

Objective Task
1. Determine the overall level of support for key alternative hypotheses, and propose other hypotheses and/or model improvements that are more consistent with existing data. .
1. a. Refine statistical relationships between land use indices and parr to smolt survival
1. b. Develop simplified passage model using Snake River PIT-tag survival estimates
1. c. Compare life-cycle survival of mid (upper) Columbia spring chinook to that of Snake River spring/summer chinook
2. Analyze management actions to restore endangered salmon stocks to self-sustaining levels of abundance .
2. a. Complete work related to 1999 decision on Snake River chinook and steelhead, 1a - 1b.
2. b. Complete prospective and decision analyses for Upper Columbia, working with PUD's and other agencies, based on 1c, above.
2. c. Complete prospective and decision analyses for Lower Columbia salmon and steelhead stocks.
2. d. Complete and publish prospective and decision analyses for Multi-species Framework.
3. Assess the ability to distinguish among competing hypotheses from future information, and advise agencies on research, monitoring, and adaptive management experiments that would maximize learning .
3. a. Complete design of experimental management options for Snake River stocks involving hydro, harvest, habitat, and hatchery actions (4 H's), and detailed monitoring and evaluation programs
3. b. Develop candidate experimental management options for Upper Columbia and Lower Columbia stocks, in response to tasks 2b and 2c (evaluate in FY2001).

Objective Schedules and Costs

Objective Start Date End Date Measurable Biological Objectives Milestone FY 2000 Cost %
1 11/01/99 10/01/00 Quantitive foundations for (2) and (3) Peer-reviewed, published retrospective analyses 60.0%
2 11/01/99 10/01/00 Published decision analysis results 20.0%
3 11/01/99 10/01/00 Published experimental management plans 20.0%

Section 5. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2000 Cost
Personnel $150,000
Fringe $ 0
Supplies $ 3,000
Travel $ 7,000
Subcontractor $ 20,000
Total Itemized Budget $180,000

Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 project cost $180,000
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2000 budget request $180,000
FY 2000 forecast from 1999 $ 0
% change from forecast 0.0%

Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable

Reason for change in scope

Not applicable

Cost Sharing

Not applicable

Outyear Budget Totals

2001 2002 2003 2004
All Phases $185,000 $190,000 $195,000 $200,000
Total Outyear Budgets $185,000 $190,000 $195,000 $200,000

Other Budget Explanation

Schedule Constraints: Litigation among agencies. Unexpected delays in 1999 decision on Snake River. uncertain. Unexpected problems with run reconstructions and model development.

Section 6. References

Reference Watershed?
Paulsen, C. and T. Fisher, 1997. “Ocean Distribution of Coded Wire Tagged Spring/Summer Chinook,” report to PATH, July, 1997. No
Botsford, L. and C. Paulsen, 1997. “Chapter 2: Covariability in Abundance among Index Stocks of Columbia River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon,” PATH report, July 1997. Submitted to CJFAS, 09/1998 No
Paulsen, C., T. Fisher, and R. Hinrichsen, 1997. “Chapter 4: Effects of Climate and Land Use on Index Stock Recruitment,” PATH report, June, 1997. No
Paulsen, C., T. Fisher, and R. Hinrichsen, 1997. “Over-wintering Survival of Snake River Spring and Summer Chinook PIT-tagged fish,” report to PATH, May, 1997. No
Paulsen, C. and T. Fisher, 1998. "Statistical testing and validation of relationship between spring-summer chinook parr-to-smolt survival and indices of rearing habitat, quality," in review, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society. No
PATH Scientific Review Panel. (Drs. S. Carpenter, J.Collie, S. Saila, C. Walters). 1998. Conclusions and Recommendations from the PATH Weight of Evidence Workshop. September 8-10, 1998. Edited by C. Peters, I. Parnell, D. Marmorek, R. Gregory, T. Eppel. No
Marmorek, D.R, I, Parnell, L. Barnthouse and D.R. Bouillon. 1995. PATH: Results of a Workshop to Design Retrospective Analyses. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd. Vancouver, BC for BPA. 278 pp. No
Marmorek, D.R. and C. Peters, editors. and 31 co-authors. 1998. PATH Final Report for Fiscal Year 1998. December 1998. Report compiled and edited by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver BC. 254 pp. No
Lee, D. C., and 20 co-authors, 1997. Broadscale assessment of aquatic species and habitat. Chapter 4 in Quigley, T. M., S. J. Arbelbide, Tech. Eds., 1997. “An assessment of ecosystem components in the interior Columbia basin..” Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR- No
Lebreton, J-D., K. P. Burnham, J. Colbert, and D. R. Anderson, 1992. “Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: a unified approach with case studies”, Ecological Monographs 62(1): 67-118. No
Paulsen, C., T. Fisher, and R. Hinrichsen, 1997. “Chapter 4: Effects of Climate and Land Use on Index Stock Recruitment,” PATH report, June, 1997. No

Section 7. Abstract


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

This project has not yet been reviewed

Return to top of page