Return to Proposal Finder FY 2000 Proposal 199600600

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Objectives, tasks and schedules
Section 5. Budget
Section 6. References
Section 7. Abstract

Reviews and Recommendations
Title Type File Size File Date


Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Facilitation, Technical Assistance and Peer Review of Path
BPA Project Proposal Number 199600600
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
ESSA Technologies Ltd.
Business acronym (if appropriate) ESSA
 

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name Mr. David Marmorek
Mailing Address Suite 300, 1765 West 8th Ave.
City, State, Zip Vancouver, BC, CANADA V6J 5C6
Phone 6047332996
Fax 6047334657
E-mail dmarmorek@essa.com
 
Manager of program authorizing this project
 
Review Cycle FY 2000
Province Mainstem/Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
 
Short Description Test hypotheses underlying key salmon recovery management decisions, develop decision analysis to evaluate alternative management strategies, and assist in designing research, monitoring and adaptive management experiments.
Target Species Columbia Basin salmon and steelhead


Project Location

[No information]


Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal


NPPC Program Measure Number(s) which this project addresses: 2.2H, 3.2.A, 3.2C, 3.2.F , 4.2a, 4.3, 7.1E
FWS/NMFS Biological Opinion Number(s) which this project addresses: NMFS Hydrosystem BO RPA 13; RPA A17
Other Planning Document References Multi-Species Framework Briefing Nov. 1998: Analytical Approach page 21, NMFS Recovery Plan task 0.3.b and 2.11.b


CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous


Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1996 For Snake River salmon, clarified management decisions with senior personnel in the major management institutions
1996 Developed hypothesis frameworks and sets of alternative hypotheses relevant to those management decisions
1996 Performed data reconnaissance, acquisition and refinement prior to completion of retrospective analyses of specific hypotheses
1997 For Snake River spring and summer chinook salmon, performed detailed retrospective analyses for hypotheses related to hydrosystem decisions, and the relevant hypotheses concerning climate, habitat, harvest and hatchery factors.
1997 Through a series of five workshops involving about 30 research scientists, planned retrospective analyses, developed tools for prospective analyses, and reviewed the results of these analyses and their implications for hydrosystem management decisions
1997 Developed new analytical tools (Bayesian probabilistic approach) to assist in decision making framework
1998 Performed and documented a Snake River Spring/summer chinook Decision Analysis for hydrosystem management alternatives
1998 Produced and documented the weight of evidence for key alternative hypotheses which influence spring/summer decision analysis results
1998 Scientific Review Panel (SRP) assigned weights to key alternative hypotheses and devloped recommendations for future PATH work
1998 Performed weighted decision analysis and compared to equally weighted case.
1998 Performed and documented a Snake River fall chinook Decision Analysis for hydrosystem management alternatives
1998 Assessed impacts of hydrosystem actions on Steelhead
1998 Coordinated PATH work with other regional groups such as the Corps' DREW (economic analysis) and Decision Process Coordinating Group


Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

Project ID Title Description Umbrella
9803067 Technical Support for PATH - NMFS PATH scientific support No
9303701 Simulation Modeling Participation C. Paulsen PATH scientific support No
9600800 State, Tribal and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Participation in PATH PATH scientific support No
8910800 Modeling PATH/ BPA technical support Univ. of Washingto PATH scientific support No
9203200 USFS modeling support PATH scientific support No
9601700 Hydrosystem Work Particiption A. Giorgi PATH scientific support No
20515 Mainstem Columbia River Umbrella Proposal (region umbrella) Yes
9600600 Facilitation, Technical Assistance And Peer Review Of Path Yes


Section 4. Objectives, Tasks and Schedules

Objectives and Tasks

Objective Task
1. Determine the overall level of support for key alternative hypotheses, and propose other hypotheses and/or model improvements that are more consistent with existing data. a. Complete and publish retrospective analyses for Upper Columbia chinook and steelhead stocks, to support NMFS Biological Opinion in March, 2000, and analyses of stock rebuilding plans proposed by Multi-species Framework. .
1. b. Complete and publish retrospective analyses for Lower Columbia salmon and steelhead stocks, to support NMFS Biological Opinions and analyses of stock rebuilding plans proposed by Multi-species Framework.
2. Advise regulatory agencies on management actions to restore endangered salmon stocks to self-sustaining levels of abundance a. Complete and publish follow-up work related to 1999 decision on Snake River chinook and steelhead.
2. b. Complete and publish prospective and decision analyses for Upper Columbia, working with PUD's and other agencies.
2. c. Complete and publish prospective and decision analyses for Lower Columbia salmon and steelhead stocks.
2. d. Complete and publish prospective and decision analyses for Multi-species Framework.
3. Assess the ability to distinguish among competing hypotheses from future information, and advise agencies on research, monitoring, and adaptive management experiments that would maximize learning a. Complete and publish detailed design of experimental management options for Snake River stocks involving hydro, harvest, habitat, and hatchery actions (4 H's), and detailed monitoring and evaluation programs
3. b. Develop candidate experimental management options for Upper Columbia and Lower Columbia stocks, in response to tasks 2b and 2c (evaluate in FY2001).

Objective Schedules and Costs

Objective Start Date End Date Measurable Biological Objectives Milestone FY 2000 Cost %
1 11/01/99 10/01/00 firm foundation for objectives 2 and 3 published retrospective analyses 20.0%
2 11/01/99 10/01/00 biologically sound strategic decisions on Snake River, Lower and Upper Columbia River subregions, integrated across the 4 H's published decision analyses 40.0%
3 11/01/99 10/01/00 experimental management plans to reduce uncertainties in meeting objective 2 published experimental management plans 40.0%


Section 5. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2000 Cost
Personnel ESSA staff: Marmorek, Peters, Parnell, Alexander $210,000
Fringe $ 0
Supplies $ 0
Operating Report production, communication, workshop facilities $ 18,000
Travel for ESSA staff and subcontractors $ 35,000
Indirect subcontract administration $ 16,000
Subcontractor Dr. Carl Walters $ 7,000
Subcontractor Dr. Jeremy Collie $ 7,000
Subcontractor Dr. Saul Saila $ 7,000
Subcontractor Drs. Jim Kitchell and Steve Carpenter $ 7,000
Subcontractor Dr. Randall Peterman $ 18,000
Subcontractor Dr. Louis Botsford $ 17,000
Subcontractor Dr. Rick Deriso $ 82,000
Subcontractor Dr. Larry Barnthouse $ 19,000
Subcontractor Dr. Mike Jones $ 7,000
Total Itemized Budget $450,000


Total estimated budget

Total FY 2000 project cost $450,000
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2000 budget request $450,000
FY 2000 forecast from 1999 $ 0
% change from forecast 0.0%


Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable


Reason for change in scope

Not applicable


Cost Sharing

Not applicable
 

Outyear Budget Totals

2001 2002 2003 2004
All Phases $450,000 $450,000 $450,000 $450,000
Total Outyear Budgets $450,000 $450,000 $450,000 $450,000
 

Other Budget Explanation

Schedule Constraints: Litigation among agencies. Unexpected delays in 1999 decision on Snake River. uncertain. Unexpected problems with run reconstructions and model development.


Section 6. References

Reference Watershed?
The following references are joint reports, with many individual scientific papers, as well as syntheses of the consensus (and disagreements) of PATH scientists on key issues. These references are available at: www/bpa.gov/Environment/PATH. No
Barnthouse, L. (ed.), J. Collie, B. Dennis, S. Saila, and C. Walters. 1996. PATH: First Scientific Review Panel Report. Prepared by ChemRisk Division, McLaren/Hart Environmental Engineering Co., Oak Ridge, TN. No
Barnthouse, L. (ed.), J. Collie, B. Dennis, S. Saila, and C. Walters. 1997. Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses (PATH): Second Scientific Review Panel Report. Prepared by ChemRisk Division, McLaren/Hart Environmental Engineering Co., Oak Ridge, TN No
Marmorek, D.P. and I. Parnell (eds.). 1995. PATH: Information package for Workshop 1 - Design of retrospective analyses to test key hypotheses of importance to management decisions on endangered and threatened Columbia River stocks. 89 pp. & Appendices No
Marmorek, D.R, I, Parnell, L. Barnthouse and D.R. Bouillon. 1995. PATH: Results of a Workshop to Design Retrospective Analyses. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd. Vancouver, BC for BPA. 278 pp. No
Marmorek, D.R. (ed.)1996. Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses (PATH): Final report on retrospective analyses for fiscal year 1996. Compiled and edited by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, B.C. 620 pp. No
Marmorek, D. and C. Peters (editors) and 24 co-authors. 1996. PATH - Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses. Conclusions of FY 96 Retrospective Analyses. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, B.C. 30 pp. No
Marmorek, D.R. and C. Peters, editors. and 26 co-authors.1998a. Preliminary decision analysis report on Snake River spring/summer chinook, . Report compiled and edited by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver BC. No
Marmorek, D.R. and C. Peters, editors. 1998b. Weight of evidence report on Snake River spring/summer chinook. August 1998. Report compiled and edited by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver BC. 160 pp. + 360 pp. of Submissions by PATH scientists. No
Marmorek, D.R. and C. Peters, editors. and 31 co-authors. 1998c. PATH Final Report for Fiscal Year 1998. December 1998. Report compiled and edited by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver BC. 254 pp. No
Marmorek, D.R., C.N. Peters and I. Parnell (eds.), and 23 co-authors. 1998d. PATH: Retrospective and Prospective Analyses of Spring/Summer Chinook Reviewed in FY1997. 693 pp., including SRP Reviews. No
PATH Scientific Review Panel. (Drs. S. Carpenter, J.Collie, S. Saila, C. Walters). 1998. Conclusions and Recommendations from the PATH Weight of Evidence Workshop. September 8-10, 1998. Edited by C. Peters, I. Parnell, D. Marmorek, R. Gregory, T. Eppel. No


Section 7. Abstract

Abstract


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

This project has not yet been reviewed

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