Return to Proposal Finder FY 2001 Ongoing Proposal 198910700

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget Summary

Reviews and Recommendations
No documents associated with this request


Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies
BPA Project Proposal Number 198910700
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
University of Washington
Business acronym (if appropriate) UW
 

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name John R. Skalski
Mailing Address UW School of Fisheries, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
City, State, Zip Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Phone 2066164851
Fax 2066167452
E-mail jrs@fish.washington.edu
 
Manager of program authorizing this project Donald W. Allen
 
Review Cycle FY 2001 Ongoing
Province Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
 
Short Description Develop better measurement tools and study designs to estimate juvenile and adult salmonid survival. Develop statistical methods to determine survival rates and survival relationships. Provide statistical guidance to Columbia Basin investigators.
Target Species


Project Location

[No information]


Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal


Biological Outcomes of this project: The project spearheaded the survival studies currently being conducted on the Snake/Columbia Rivers (1993-2000). In conjunction with the NMFS, this study has helped to generate new biological understandings of the dynamics of smolt outmigration. These include: (1) smolt travel time - survival relationships; (2) river flow/temperature - survival relationships; (3) comparisons of hatchery and wild chinook and steelhead smolt survival; (4) comparison of smolt survival across 8 years and 2-7 river reaches in the Snake and Lower Columbia; (5) survival rates for subyearling chinook salmon smolts, yearling chinook salmon, and steelhead; (6) fish guidance efficiency and spill effectiveness; (7) season-wide smolt survival estimates; (8) partitioning of survival into dam and pool components; (9) comparison of outmigration dynamics of PIT- and radio-tagged steelhead; (10) implementation of single-release, paired-release, and multi-release study designs using radiotelemetry.
Biological Data: As mentioned above, the survival studies have generated a vast reservoir of information in the past 7 years on smolt outmigration dynamics in the Snake River and to a lesser extent in the Lower Columbia and Mid-Columbia River. This information on smolt outmigration performance can be related to river conditions, hydroproject operation, and fish condition factors. The smolt survival data can also be related to concurrent but independent studies on fish guidance efficiency, spill effectiveness, and surface collector performance at many of the Columbia River hydroprojects. Hence, the smolt survival studies performed by NMFS, USGS, USACE, and PUDs and technically supported by this project are an empirical component in the monitoring and evaluation of basin-wide programs to enhance smolt survival and salmon recovery.


CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous


Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1989 Developed theory to assess survival effects that results from ambient river conditions. Improved analytical capabilities to conduct research on survival processes of wild and hatchery chinook and steelhead during smolt outmigration.
1990 Began software development for statistical analyses, and began statistical theory to assess individual covariate effects on survival.
1991 Demonstrated ability to simultaneously assess ambient effects and individual covariate effects.
1992 Extended computer software to include analysis of group and individual covariate effects. Proposed "strawman" design for development of PIT-tag facilities on Snake-Columbia River. Developed study plan for Snake River survival study.
1993 Completed statistical software development of analysis package--final debugging of computer program, helped facilitate Snake River survival study, and conducted analysis of hatchery survival studies.
1994 Completed and distributed SURPH statistical software and users manual for statistical analysis of data. Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1995 Produced a PC version of SURPH software and sample size program to design tag-release studies. Continued to support NMFS survival studies. Continued to refine and expand statistical methods and software to meet the needs of NMFS and other users.
1996 Developed statistical methods for estimating season-wide survival. Developed proper statistical model to estimate survival rates for fall chinook with residualization. Continued to support NMFS survival studies.
1997 Improved statistical models and software for expanded survival experiments. Investigated alternative approaches to estimating ocean survival rates. Continued to support NMFS survival studies. Assisted Nez Perce tribe in performing survival analyses.
1998 Developed batch analysis programs for NMFS to permit the statistical analysis of very large data sets. Developed new unified (PC and UNIX) version of SURPH with greater model specification capabilities needed for paired-release investigations.
1998 Completed statistical theory for longitudinal analysis of time-varying, individual-based covariates in survival analyses.
1998 Demonstrated feasibility of extracting precise and detailed information on smolt survival and passage rates at hydroprojects using radiotelemetry models.
1999 Developed flexible software to analyze a wide array of radiotelemetry survival studies. Performed radio-tag and PIT-tag comparisons of smolt outmigration behavior. Continued to support NMFS, USGS, and other users.
2000 Completed new generation of SURPH.2 software for survival analyses with greater capabilities. Developed new analyses to relate smolt survival to river conditions using paired release-recapture methods. Continued to support NMFS, USGS, and other users.


Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

n/a or no information


Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Planning and Design Phase

n/a or no information


Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Construction and Implementation Phase

n/a or no information


Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Operations and Maintenance Phase

n/a or no information


Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation Phase

Task-based Budget

Objective Task Duration in FYs Estimated 2001 cost Subcontractor
1. Maintenance of SURPH.2 1a. Maintain SURPH software. Ongoing $ 28,060  
1b.Maintain internet access to SURPH software resources. Ongoing $ 20,000  
1c. Adapt SURPH software as needed to changing internal computing environment. Ongoing $ 24,000  
1d. Respond to user questions and provide technical support. Ongoing $ 24,000  
2. Improve SURPH software as needed by the users to changing research demands. 2a. Develop paired release-recapture analyses to evaluate survival relationships. Ongoing $ 50,000  
2b. Integrate radiotelemetry and PIT-tag analyses capabilities into a single user-friendly software. Ongoing $ 41,000  
3. Develop adult PIT-tag design and analyses framework and associated software. 3a. Participate in interagency working group. Ongoing $ 21,820  
3b. Develop analysis capabilities for estimating adult migration performance. Ongoing $ 37,680  


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation Phase

FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2002 FY 2003
$215,000 $225,000 $248,000 $220,000


Section 8. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2001 Cost
Personnel $120,746
Fringe Includes benefits, graduate operating fee $ 34,079
Supplies Includes services, software, equipment $ 15,330
Travel $ 3,720
Indirect $ 42,450
Other Lease $ 30,175
Total Itemized Budget $246,500


Total estimated budget

Total FY 2001 project cost $246,500
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2001 budget request $246,500
FY 2001 forecast from 2000 $187,000
% change from forecast 31.8%


Reason for change in estimated budget

Additional task has been added to project to help design and develop new adult PIT-tag analysis capabilities.


Reason for change in scope

The new task at the request of the BPA is to participate in an interagency working group to design and implement an adult PIT-tag detection system for monitoring and evaluating adult salmonid upriver migration performance. The project will develop data analysis capabilities and operational recommendations for the new facilities.


Cost Sharing

Not applicable
 

Outyear Budget Totals

2002 2003 2004 2005
Monitoring and evaluation $248,000 $220,000 $215,000 $225,000
Total Outyear Budgets $248,000 $220,000 $215,000 $225,000
 

Other Budget Explanation

Not applicable


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

CBFWA Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Ongoing Funding: no; New Funding: no
Date:
Jul 14, 2000
2001
$ 0
Comment:
An additional task has been added to the project to help design and develop new adult PIT-tag analysis capabilities (Section 6, Objective 3 for a total of $59,500). This task has not been technically reviewed by CBFWA and appears to be duplicative of a new task within project 9105100.

The new task at the request of the BPA is to participate in an interagency working group to design and implement an adult PIT-tag detection system for monitoring and evaluating adult salmonid upriver migration performance. The project will develop data analysis capabilities and operational recommendations for the new facilities.

This project fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.


BPA Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Fund under Technical Support Project
Date:
Sep 8, 2000
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
CBFWA comment: An additional task has been added to the project to help design and develop new adult PIT-tag analysis capabilities (Section 6, Objective 3 for a total of $59,500). This task has not been technically reviewed by CBFWA and appears to be duplicative of a new task within project 199105100. The new task at the request of the BPA is to participate in an interagency working group to design and implement an adult PIT-tag detection system for monitoring and evaluating adult salmonid upriver migration performance. The project will develop data analysis capabilities and operational recommendations for the new facilities.

BPA response: The successful juvenile PIT-tag studies in the Snake-Columbia River Basin occurred in large part due to the collaboration of biologists, engineers, data managers, and statisticians during the development of this technology. The juvenile PIT-tag facilities were engineered from the onset to provide the quality and quantity of data needed to successfully conduct juvenile survival and travel time studies. This same strategy of a coordinated interdisciplinary team (Application-Based Performance Requirements Evaluation Team) is being used to develop adult PIT-tag detection capabilities in the Basin. Results of the technical evaluation team are reported to the interagency Adult PIT Tag Oversight Team (APTOC). For consistency and application of the best available statistical methods to this effort, BPA has tasked the technical services of two UW projects to participate in the technical evaluation process. The technical services provided by these two projects are not duplicative. Project 198910700 is providing the statistical guidance based on the proven Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to determine minimum system design requirements for an adult detection system. Project 199105100 is being used to analyze historical adult PIT-tag detections at Lower Granite Dam and summarize radiotelemetry findings from the University of Idaho to identify performance levels needed for precise estimation of ocean survival and inriver survival of adults. The results on the detection efficiency requirements for a successful investigation, in turn, are providing guidance to the engineers designing and installing these detection facilities. The goal is to have an operational adult detection capability from the onset that will meet the expectations and needs of the fisheries managers as soon as possible. The product deliverable(s) from the technical services of these two UW projects will be technical reports to the evaluation team. These reports will be available to the FWP and the fisheries community through the technical report series, "The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin."

CBFWA comment: This project fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.

BPA response: BPA supports the continuation of project 198910700 and contends its value needs to be considered in the context of improving monitoring and evaluation capabilities and providing consistent information and statistical technical support to BPA and the FWP.

The mission of Project 198910700 is the ongoing development of statistical tools for analyzing fisheries tagging data in the most precise and appropriate manner possible. This mission addresses the need to provide statistical support to Columbia Basin mark-recapture programs so that survival estimation is consistent and comparable among all tagging programs and across all life stages. This mission includes providing statistical guidance on the best ways to design and analyze tagging data. This mission continues because the technologies for fish tagging studies continuously evolve. In just the last decade, fisheries biologists have seen the evolution from freeze-brands and coded wire-tags (CWT) to PIT-tags, balloon-tags, radiotelemetry, and now, acoustic-tags. With each advance, the technology holds the promise of more detailed and precise information. However, the technology for analyzing and interpreting the data also becomes more complex as the tagging techniques become more sophisticated. The goal of the project is to develop the analytical tools in parallel with the technical advances to the tagging studies and the questions they can address, so that maximum information can be extracted on a timely basis. Associated with this mission is the transfer of these analytical capabilities to the field investigators to assure consistency and the highest levels of design and analysis throughout the fisheries community.

Ideally, each project and each investigator would invest in the statistical support needed for the successful completion of their study. However, this is an ideal that is rarely, if ever, attained. Furthermore, there is only a small pool of highly trained scientists in this specialized area of tag analysis here in the Northwest. Project 198910700 provides the financial support to sustain this local expertise on the statistical theory of tag analysis at the University of Washington and make it available to the fisheries community. Piecemeal and fragmented support from various agencies and organizations would be incapable of maintaining a center of expertise. The funding from BPA ensures the continuity of support needed to assist organizations on an as-needed basis, as well as provide the necessary support to develop the analytical technologies needed in the foreseeable future. This successful model for providing statistical support has assisted, among others, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Idaho Fish and Game, National Marine Fisheries Services, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Geological Survey, US Fish and Wildlife Services, tribes such as the Nez Perce, and various public utilities engaged in fish mitigation programs. By improving field studies, the project assists the fisheries community through better information and the management of recovering salmonid stocks. BPA intends to fund this work under its Technical Support Project. Funds for this support would come from BPA's internal overhead. The estimated FY01 cost is $246,560.


NWPPC Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Sep 13, 2000
2001
$246,560
Comment:

NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review Funding category:
expense
Date:
May 2005
FY05 NPCC Start of Year:
$239,265
FY06 NPCC Staff Preliminary:
$239,265
FY06 NPCC July Draft Start of Year:
$239,265
Sponsor (U of W) Comments (Go to Original on NPCC Website):

Sponsor (U of W) Comments (Go to Original on NPCC Website):

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