Return to Proposal Finder FY 2001 Ongoing Proposal 199105100

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget Summary

Reviews and Recommendations
No documents associated with this request


Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Monitoring and Evaluation Statistical Support
BPA Project Proposal Number 199105100
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
University of Washington
Business acronym (if appropriate) UW
 

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name John R. Skalski
Mailing Address UW School of Fisheries, 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
City, State, Zip Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Phone 2066164851
Fax 2066167452
E-mail jrs@fish.washington.edu
 
Manager of program authorizing this project Donald W. Allen
 
Review Cycle FY 2001 Ongoing
Province Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
 
Short Description Develops statistical methods for monitoring and evaluating salmonid recovery plans. Provides added-value analyses and statistical support to address fisheries regional issues. Provides smolt migration timing predictions on the internet.
Target Species


Project Location

[No information]


Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal


Biological Outcomes of this project: This project has evaluated historical tagging studies to help design future research and determine the reliability of existing information. The project has explored possible relationships between juvenile survival and adult returns with river flows, abundance of hatchery stocks, pulsing, ocean conditions, and ambient river conditions. The project has also developed new approaches and statistical tools which provide online internet-based information including real-time in-season predictions of migration status. This information, along with flow predictions and transportation levels, provides fisheries managers with the opportunity to integrate the status of the smolt outmigration with river management options. Run-timing predictions are available for NMFS evolutionary significant units (ESUs) as well as river runs as a whole for spring and fall chinook salmon, steelhead, and sockeye. These biological results help evaluate past management decisions and improve monitoring efforts.
Biological Data: Data used in these analyses of historical tagging data include freeze-brand recoveries, coded-wire tag (CWT), PIT-tag, radio-tag, and balloon-tag information. In addition, data on ambient river conditions, dam operations, and ocean conditions are used to investigate the interrelationships between outmigration dynamics and possible factors influencing mitigation success.


CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous


Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1991 Report on historical brand release data for the Snake River. Report identified serious bias in travel time estimation using brand data and difficulties establishing travel time relationship with existing data.
1992 Report on a "strawman" smolt monitoring design for the Snake/Columbia River systems. This strawman became the conceptual design for the existing PIT-tag detection system for the Snake River.
1993 Report on adult PIT-tag returns. Results showed annual patterns of adult returns differed across years even for closely related river systems.
1994 Development and testing of Program RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software using pattern recognition and neuronets to predict outmigration timing of spring runs of wild Snake River spring/summer chinook at Lower Granite Dam in real time.
1995 Refinement of RealTime PIT Forecaster statistical software and initial testing of RealTime Passage Index Forecaster software to predict outmigration timing of summer/fall runs of juvenile subyearling chinook at Lower Granite Dam.
1995 Report on transportation benefits analysis methods showed estimation differences among investigators may be related to analysis methods selected. Recommendations on proper statistical models included.
1996 RealTime model of this project linked with CRiSP model of Project 8910800 to extend predictions of migration timing to include Lower Snake River hydroprojects and McNary Dam.
1996 Investigated extending real-time outmigration predictions to Mid-Columbia hydroprojects. Expansion of internet access to cover historical run-timing and flow data at all major hydroprojects.
1996 Expansion of online interactive information to include in-season time series of PIT detections for NMFS Snake River evolutionary significant units (ESUs) as they pass through hydroprojects.
1996 Report on Priest Rapids hatchery returns of fall chinook versus river conditions which found upstream-downstream study designs to be of limited statistical reliability.
1997 RealTime predictions continued, along with addition of Redfish Lake sockeye salmon and steelhead.
1997 Investigations included study of effects of river pulsing on smolt travel times, estimation of fish guidance efficiency, and spill effectiveness from PIT-tag data and the estimation of season-wide survival rates and smolt growth rates.
1998 Completed study of relationships between coho age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions.
1998 Assessed internal consistency of hydroacoustics, PIT-tag, and balloon-tag studies in explaining Lower Granite Dam project survival of outmigrating salmonid smolts.
1999 Completed study of relationship between spring chinook age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions.
1999 Assessed the validity of using Rice Island PIT-tag recoveries in estimating smolt survival through the Bonneville project.
1999 Assessed the feasibility of using hatchery rearing information to assess smolt quality and subsequent downriver migration performance in cooperation with USGS.
2000 Completed study of relationships between fall chinook age-at-return CWT data and early ocean survival as a function of ocean conditions.
2000 Completed synthesis and comparison of smolt survival estimates as generated with different technologies and experimental protocols.


Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

n/a or no information


Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Planning and Design Phase

n/a or no information


Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Construction and Implementation Phase

n/a or no information


Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Operations and Maintenance Phase

n/a or no information


Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation Phase

Task-based Budget

Objective Task Duration in FYs Estimated 2001 cost Subcontractor
1. In-season statistical support 1a. Provide RealTime predictions. Ongoing $ 65,500  
1b. Develop improved in-season prediction tools. Ongoing $ 10,000  
2. Statistical analysis of historical tagging data 2a. Continued analysis of adult returns and relationships between stocks, years, and river conditions from PIT-tags. Ongoing $ 61,000  
2b. Continued analysis of spawner-recruit data to investigate any changes in productivity and recommend survey improvements. Ongoing $ 67,500  
2c. Continued investigation of relationships between smolt conditions and outmigration performance. Ongoing $ 57,500  
2d. Analysis of adult PIT-tag returns related to adult PIT-tag interrogation system. Ongoing $ 16,700  
2e. Analysis of adult telemetry data for design purposes. Ongoing $ 8,600  
3. Statistical support for region 3a. BPA technical support. Ongoing $ 36,500  
3b. Northwest technical support Ongoing $ 15,000  
3c. Analysis of hatchery rearing factors and returns in collaboration with USGS Ongoing $ 30,000  


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation Phase

FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2002 FY 2003
$342,000 $359,000 $386,700 $351,000


Section 8. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2001 Cost
Personnel $192,544
Fringe Includes benefits, graduate operating fee $ 48,136
Supplies Includes services, software, equipment $ 18,382
Travel $ 3,200
Indirect 26% $ 68,188
Other Lease $ 37,850
Total Itemized Budget $368,300


Total estimated budget

Total FY 2001 project cost $368,300
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2001 budget request $368,300
FY 2001 forecast from 2000 $343,000
% change from forecast 7.4%


Reason for change in estimated budget

Increase in lease rate for facilities and expanded scope of work.


Reason for change in scope

The new task includes analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River.


Cost Sharing

Not applicable
 

Outyear Budget Totals

2002 2003 2004 2005
Monitoring and evaluation $386,700 $351,000 $342,000 $359,000
Total Outyear Budgets $386,700 $351,000 $342,000 $359,000
 

Other Budget Explanation

Not applicable


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

CBFWA Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Ongoing Funding: no; New Funding: no
Date:
Jul 14, 2000
2001
$ 0
Comment:
There is an increase in lease rate for facilities and expanded scope of work.

The new task includes analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River (Objective 2, Tasks d and e for a total of $25,300). This task has not been technically reviewed by CBFWA and appears to be duplicative of a new task within project 8910700.

The objectives are not clearly defined. This project appears to be an open-ended contract for statistical support on retainer. There appears to be no specific objectives with deliverables and due dates. It fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.


BPA Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Fund under Technical Support Project
Date:
Sep 8, 2000
[There are no budget numbers associated with this review.]
Comment:
CBFWA comment: There is an increase in lease rate for facilities and expanded scope of work. The new task includes analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River (Objective 2, Tasks d and e for a total of $25,300). This task has not been technically reviewed by CBFWA and appears to be duplicative of a new task within project 8910700.

BPA response: With regard to the "Lease Rate": The increase in lease rate results from an expiration of the old lease and an increase in the new lease rate due to market conditions.

With regard to the New Support Task: A new support task, added for FY2001 under the element that provides statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community, is the analysis of adult tagging information (i.e., PIT-tag, radio-tag) to determine anticipated performance of a new adult PIT-tag system in the Columbia River. The successful juvenile PIT-tag studies in the Snake-Columbia River Basin occurred in large part due to the collaboration of biologists, engineers, data managers, and statisticians during the development of this technology. The juvenile PIT-tag facilities were engineered from the onset to provide the quality and quantity of data needed to successfully conduct juvenile survival and travel time studies. This same strategy of a coordinated interdisciplinary team (Application-Based Performance Requirements Evaluation Team) is being used to develop adult PIT-tag detection capabilities in the Basin. Results of the technical evaluation team are reported to the interagency Adult PIT Tag Oversight Team (APTOC). For consistency and application of the best available statistical methods to this effort, BPA has tasked the technical services of two UW projects to participate in the technical evaluation process. The technical services provided by these two projects are not duplicative. Project 198910700 is providing the statistical guidance based on the proven Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to determine minimum system design requirements for an adult detection system. Project 199105100 is being used to analyze historical adult PIT-tag detections at Lower Granite Dam and summarize radiotelemetry findings from the University of Idaho to identify performance levels needed for precise estimation of ocean survival and inriver survival of adults. The results of the detection efficiency requirements for a successful investigation, in turn, are providing guidance to the engineers designing and installing these detection facilities. The goal is to have an operational adult detection capability from the onset that will meet the expectations and needs of the fisheries managers as soon as possible. The product deliverable(s) from the technical services of these two UW projects will be technical reports to the evaluation team.

These reports will be available to the FWP and the fisheries community through the technical report series, "The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin."

CBFWA comment: The objectives are not clearly defined. This project appears to be an open-ended contract for statistical support on retainer. There appear to be no specific objectives with deliverables and due dates. It fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.

BPA response: BPA contends that the information and capabilities provided by this project are needed to help BPA and the FWP satisfy ESA responsibilities related to implementation of a comprehensive research monitoring and evaluation program. Ongoing tasks of this project are to:

Provide statistical analyses of historical tagging data to extract extra-value information on salmonid population dynamics and their interactions with the environment, and provide statistical guidance on the design and analysis of fisheries tagging studies. Provide in-season statistical support by providing real-time analyses of smolt outmigration dynamics for ESA demes and runs-at-large for the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Provide BPA and the northwest fisheries community with professional support as needed in the design, analysis, and interpretation of fisheries tagging studies.

These tasks provide an interrelated set of goals whose aim is to assure that the maximum information is extracted from the myriad of tagging programs in a cost-effective manner for the benefit of all members of the fisheries community.

The primary objective of Project 199105100 is to perform value-added analyses of existing salmonid tagging data, provide insights into the life history of recovering salmonid stocks, and guidance on the design of future fish tagging studies. A wealth of information exists in the current coded-wire-tag (CWT) and PIT-tag databases. The spatial and temporal breadth of these databases often exceeds the interests of the individual investigator contributing to the data. Individual investigators will typically only analyze their data for the immediate goals of their separate studies. However, the composite data includes information on spatial and temporal trends of potential importance to the fisheries community and beyond the immediate interests of the studies that generated the data. The unique goal of this project is to extract this meta-information to better interpret large-scale trends affecting salmonid recovery.

By performing value-added analyses of historical data, this project serves several purposes:

  • Provides managers with information that might not be available if tagging data were analyzed solely for the immediate needs of individual studies.
  • Provides guidance on the best methods for analyzing these long-term databases for consistency and maximum information extraction.
  • Provides an empirically based alternative to complex model interpretations of the data.
  • Provides empirical information to better design future studies so that study goals can be obtained with minimal expense or failure.
All of these products have as their goal to provide fisheries managers with up-to-date information on the status of recovering salmonid stocks and guidance on how to fill information gaps.

The analytical and information support services provided by this contract will continue to be needed in the future to help meet the continuing demands for information available for both in-season management of fish and river resources and decision making related to fish mitigation programs. The specific analytical support activities required each year will change to meet the needs of BPA and the Northwest fisheries community in their ongoing efforts to enhance and recover Columbia River Basin salmon runs. BPA intends to fund this work under its Technical Support Project.


NWPPC Funding Recommendation Recommendation:
Fund
Date:
Sep 13, 2000
2001
$340,357
Comment:
Bonneville requires, but has not defined planned budget. This assumes same as FY2000.

NW Power and Conservation Council's FY 2006 Project Funding Review Funding category:
expense
Date:
May 2005
FY05 NPCC Start of Year:
$394,655
FY06 NPCC Staff Preliminary:
$394,655
FY06 NPCC July Draft Start of Year:
$394,655
Sponsor (U of W) Comments (Go to Original on NPCC Website):

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