Return to Proposal Finder FY 2001 Ongoing Proposal 199800100

Proposal Table of Contents

Additional Documents

Section 1. General Administrative information
Section 2. Past accomplishments
Section 3. Relationships to other projects
Section 4. Budgets for planning/design phase
Section 5. Budgets for construction/implementation phase
Section 6. Budgets for operations/maintenance phase
Section 7. Budgets for monitoring/evaluation phase
Section 8. Budget Summary

Reviews and Recommendations
No documents associated with this request


Section 1. General Administrative Information

Title of Project Proposal Analytical Support - ESA Biological Assessments
BPA Project Proposal Number 199800100
Business name of agency, institution,
or organization requesting funding
Hinrichsen Environmental Services
Business acronym (if appropriate) HES
 

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

Name Richard A. Hinrichsen
Mailing Address 3216 NE 45TH PL STE 303W
City, State, Zip Seattle, WA 98105-4028
Phone 2065278991
Fax 2065279061
E-mail hinrich@seanet.com
 
Manager of program authorizing this project Richard A. Hinrichsen
 
Review Cycle FY 2001 Ongoing
Province Systemwide
Subbasin Systemwide
 
Short Description Evaluate life-stage specific jeopardy standards, risk assessment models used for gauging salmon population responses to management actions, and experimental management designs.
Target Species


Project Location

[No information]


Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Sponsor-Reported Relevant RPAs

Sponsor listed no RPAs for this project proposal

Relevant RPAs based upon NMFS & BPA Review

NMFS and BPA did not associate any reasonable and prudent alternatives with this project proposal


Biological Outcomes of this project: The expected biological outcomes of the life-cycle analyses, will be probabilities (and their associated confidence intervals) of extinction and meeting survival recovery standards for various management alternatives. The outcome of the experimental management evaluation will include a power analysis (the probability of reliably detecting an experimental response), and a guide to how long experiments need to last for reliable learning. The outcome of monitoring and evaluation will be a comparison of life-stage specific survival data to target envelopes.
Biological Data: Biological outcomes of probabilities of extinction and meeting survival and recovery standards will be measured using spawner-recruit (SR) data developed for various stocks in the Columbia Basin. The run reconstruction data throughout the basin vary a great deal in length and quality among the various index stocks. For the Snake River spring chinook, there are SR data spanning 1958-1994 (brood years). For the Snake River fall chinook, for example, there are SR data spanning 1964-1991 (brood years). For life-stage specific survival standards, monitoring and evaluation data will largely be derived from PIT-tag survival estimates and SR data.


CBFWA-Generated Information

Database Administrator notes on the history of this proposal form: None
Type of Project (assigned by CBFWA Analysts): anadromous


Section 2. Past Accomplishments

Year Accomplishment
1998 Developed alternative model structures for use in retrospective and prospective modeling in PATH.
1998 Developed alternative hypotheses for inclusion in the PATH decision support analysis.
1998 Co-authored decision analysis report (PATH 1998). PATH. 1998. Preliminary Decision Analysis Report on Spring/Summer Chinook.
1998 Provided biological rationale of climate regime shift hypothesis used in PATH.
1998 Conducted sensitivity analysis demonstrating the influence of certain observations on PATH spawner-recruit analyses.
1998 Hinrichsen, R. A. and C. Paulsen. 1998a. Testing the Hydro-Related Extra Mortality Hypothesis. Technical report submitted to PATH. Incorporated into PATH Weight of Evidence Report Appendix (submission 3). June 10, 1988.
1998 Hinrichsen, R.A. and C. Paulsen. 1998b. Weighting and sensitivity analysis difficulties with an unbalanced design. PATH memo submitted April 29, 1998.
1998 Paulsen, C. and R. A. Hinrichsen. 1998. Hatchery Hypothesis: Variation in releases of Snake River hatchery spring/summer chinook is associated with variation in extra mortality of naturally produced Snake River spring/summer chinook. PATH memo. June 12, 1
1998 PATH. 1998. PATH Weight of Evidence Report, August 11, 1998
1999 C.N. Peters, D.R. Marmorek, and I. Parnell (eds.). 1999. PATH Decision Analysis Report for Snake River Fall Chinook. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, 332 pp.
1999 Developed fall chinook life-cycle model for decision analysis.
1999 Showed how Snake River Fall life-cycle model results depended critically on a single spawner-recruit observation.
1999 Developed alternative hypotheses to explain declines in Fall chinook numbers over brood years 1964-1991.
1999 Showed that with low transportation effectiveness estimated by some PATH models, that transportation should be immediately halted for Snake River fall chinook.
2000 Peters C.N. and D.R. Marmorek (compls./eds.) 2000. PATH: Preliminary Evaluation of the Learning Opportunities and Biological Consequences of Monitoring and Experimental Management Actions. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, 150 pp.
2000 Developed a simplified life-cycle model for screen experimental management designs targeting Snake River spring chinook.
2000 Co-authored a report showing in detail the assumptions and results of the experimental management life-cycle model. (Peters and Marmorek 2000)
2000 Determined the likelihood and time required to detect various experimental effects for different experimental management actions (hatchery manipulations, carcass introductions, transportation evaluation, and Snake River drawdown).


Section 3. Relationships to Other Projects

n/a or no information


Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design Phase

Task-based Budget

Objective Task Duration in FYs Estimated 2001 cost Subcontractor
1. Review and develop life-cycle models. a. Develop and run life-cycle model for probabilities of extinction and meeting jeopardy standards. 5 $ 20,000  
b. Evaluate effect of management actions on probabilities of extinction and meeting recovery standards. 5 $ 20,000  
c. Review/compare various life-cycle models and their results. 5 $ 20,000  
2. Design experimental management actions. a. Use the life-cycle model to help design experimental management actions that will increase learning and decrease population risk. 5 $ 24,000  
3. Evaluate survival targets and monitoring and evaluation. a. Evaluate the statistical properties of survival targets. 5 $ 24,000  
b. Determine the level of confidence in stage-based survival estimates. 5 $ 22,000  


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Planning and Design Phase

FY 2005 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2002
$160,000 $140,000 $150,000 $135,000


Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Construction and Implementation Phase

n/a or no information


Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Operations and Maintenance Phase

n/a or no information


Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation Phase

Task-based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Objective-Based Budget

n/a or no information


Outyear Budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation Phase

n/a or no information


Section 8. Estimated Budget Summary

Itemized Budget

Item Note FY 2001 Cost
Personnel FTE: 1 $128,000
Travel $ 2,000
Total Itemized Budget $130,000


Total estimated budget

Total FY 2001 project cost $130,000
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA Funds $ 0
Total FY 2001 budget request $130,000
FY 2001 forecast from 2000 $130,000
% change from forecast 0.0%


Reason for change in estimated budget

Not applicable


Reason for change in scope

The scope of the work has changed to involve more interaction with other analytical processes that were begun in 1999, including the NMFS CRI analysis. The project has evolved from being part of the PATH to providing independent scientific analyses required by BPA for ESA Biological Opinions, NEPA Environmental Impact Statements, and In-Season management decisions. In addition, the project provides technical support for BPA’s input to regional fish recovery efforts such as the Federal All-H Caucus Process and the NPPC Framework Process.


Cost Sharing

Not applicable
 

Outyear Budget Totals

2002 2003 2004 2005
Planning and design $135,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000
Total Outyear Budgets $135,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000
 

Other Budget Explanation

Not applicable


Reviews and Recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

This project has not yet been reviewed

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