BPA Fish and Wildlife FY 1997 Proposal

Section 1. Administrative
Section 2. Narrative
Section 3. Budget

see CBFWA and BPA funding recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Title of project
Cost-Effectiveness of Salmon Recovery Measures

BPA project number   5501300

Business name of agency, institution or organization requesting funding
Environmental Defense Fund

Sponsor type   OR-Consultant

Proposal contact person or principal investigator
 NameDr. Zach Willey
 Mailing addressEDF Pacific Northwest
60440 Woodside Road
Bend, OR 97702

BPA technical contact   , EWP

Biological opinion ID   

NWPPC Program number   

Short description
This project will develop cost-effectiveness analysis to facilitate the selection of salmon recovery measures called for in the NPPC Fish and Wildlife Program and by the Tribes and state agencies which maximize the salmon survival benefits from funding levels available from BPA and elsewhere.

Project start year   1997    End year   1999

Start of operation and/or maintenance   0

Project development phase   Implementation

Section 2. Narrative

Related projects
Project # 930440, an ongoing EDF project, seeks to develop information and pilot projects on the energy and air pollution consequences of changes in river operations for salmon recovery. By including possible air pollution reduction credits into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of river operation changes, previously untapped opportunities to enhance cost-effectiveness will be developed. This work would be a related component of the larger cost-effectiveness project described here.

Project history

Biological results achieved

Annual reports and technical papers

Management implications

Specific measureable objectives
The objective of this project is to maximize the salmon survival benefits produced from given levels of expenditures funded by BPA and other sources. By developing and utilizing cost-effectiveness measures and criteria, the NPPC/tribes/state agencies prioritization process will increase its effectiveness in achieving salmon recovery goals within existing budgetary constraints.

Testable hypothesis
The hypothesis is that there is a set of biological measures of salmon survival/recovery which, when combined with information on the costs of implementing these measures, will allow meaningful cost-effectiveness analysis to provide critical decision information and guidance.

Underlying assumptions or critical constraints
The critical assumption of this project is that there is a sufficient set of biological measures and supporting data concerning the likely response of salmon survival/recovery to habitat-related changes to enable a cost-effectiveness analysis.

(1) Project design will consist first of identification of the current and likely future NPPC Fish and Wildlife Program components and measures aimed at salmon recovery. Existing information on and criteria for biological effectiveness in terms of salmon survival/recovery of various habitat-related changes which are relevant to Program components will then be assembled. Costs of Program components will also be analyzed. These elements will form the basis for cost-effectiveness analysis. (2) To the degree that valid and appropriate time-series or cross-sectional data are available, statistical analysis of cost-effectiveness measures will be performed. (3) No direct work with fish is part of this project.

Brief schedule of activities
1997: Identify NPPC Fish and Wildlife Program components and measures which will be the subject of cost-effectiveness analysis. Work with staff of NPPC, tribes, state agencies, and BPA staff will be part of this process. Specify biological measures and criteria which are quantifiable and of sufficient technical credibility to be utilized in cost-effectiveness analysis. Assemble and analyze cost information.
1998: Initiate cost-effectiveness analysis of Program components and measures. Assemble technical reviewers and present preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis and results to technical reviewers for critique and revision. Finalize cost-effectiveness analysis.

1999: Produce a report to NPPC, BPA, tribes, and state agencies on cost-effectiveness analysis and results.

Propose a decision-making process for selecting salmon recovery/survival measures and projects which maximize

results within budgetary spending constraints.

Biological need
Salmon survival and recovery depends in significant part on the implementation of measures to improve habitat conditions. There are many habitat improvement projects which if implemented would aid salmon, but there is a limited amount of financial and other resources which are available to support the implementation of such projects. To maximize the chances of salmon recovery and survival, a method of selecting the most effective projects and measures for the amount of resources expended is necessary. This project will produce information needed to achieve the maximum salmon recovery and survival benefits from available resources.

Critical uncertainties
The critical uncertainty associated with this project is that existing biological measures and data needed to quantify salmon survival and recovery benefits resulting from habitat changes and improvements are inadequate to enable a credible cost-effectiveness analysis.

Summary of expected outcome
The expected outcome of this project is a substantial increase in salmon recovery and survival resulting from habitat improvement projects and expenditures.

Dependencies/opportunities for cooperation
This project is dependent upon the cooperation of professional staff of various agencies and entities to identify appropriate and meaningful biological measures of efficacy of habitat alterations on salmon recovery. The technical expertise and judgment of staff at NPCC, tribes, state agencies, BPA, NMFS, the emerging Independent Scientific Review Committee, and others from public and private entities will be important sources of input. The cost analysis of this project will also require staff cooperation in a variety of federal, state, and local agencies and entities.

The major risk of this project is that a useful cost-effectiveness analysis and framework may not be achieved. While this might provide clearer direction concerning scientific and economic information needed in the future to enable such an analysis and framework to be utilized, it might also lead the region to conclude that such an approach is not possible. This in turn could lead to support for the belief that the process of salmon recovery project selection and decisionmaking is inherently political and not scientific.

Monitoring activity
The work schedule during each year of the three year project life contains certain outcomes the delivery of which will be monitored. The final product of the project -- a cost-effectiveness report and recommendation to the NPPC, the tribes, and the state agencies -- will be assessed in 1999.

Section 3. Budget

Data shown are the total of expense and capital obligations by fiscal year. Obligations for any given year may not equal actual expenditures or accruals within the year, due to carryover, pre-funding, capitalization and difference between operating year and BPA fiscal year.

Historic costsFY 1996 budget data*Current and future funding needs
(none) New project - no FY96 data available 1997: 185,000
1998: 185,000
1999: 185,000

* For most projects, Authorized is the amount recommended by CBFWA and the Council. Planned is amount currently allocated. Contracted is the amount obligated to date of printout.

Funding recommendations

CBFWA funding review group   System Policy

Recommendation    Tier 3 - do not fund