FY 2007 Solicitation Homepage

Project Proposal Request for FY 2007 - FY 2009 Funding

Proposal 198910700: Statistical Support For Salmonid Survival Studies

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Table of Contents
Part 1. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative
Section 2: Project Location
Section 3: Project Species
Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Section 5: Relationship to Other Projects
Section 6: Biological Objectives
Section 7: Work Elements
Section 8: Budget
Section 9: Project Future
Section 10: Documents
Part 2. Reviews
Part 1 of 2. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative Information
Process Information:
Date Proposal Submitted & Finalized Status Form Generator
January 10, 2006 Finalized John Skalski

Proposal Type: Ongoing
Proposal Number: 198910700
Proposal Name: Statistical Support For Salmonid Survival Studies
BPA Project Manager: John Piccininni
Agency, Institution or Organization: University of Washington
Short Description: Improve monitoring and evaluation capabilities by developing state-of-the-art study designs and analysis tools to estimate juvenile and adult salmonid survival and survival relationships. Provide statistical guidance to investigators in the Northwest.
Information Transfer: This task provides statistical support to Columbia Basin investigators requesting assistance with the design and analysis of tagging studies. Efforts include development of new tagging models to address advances in technology and research questions, sample size calculations, guidance on release and recapture designs, assuring proper statistical methods are used in data analysis, modifying statistical software to accommodate unique analysis requirements, and the review of technical reports. All these efforts are to ensure that the maximum information can be reliably extracted from tagging studies funded under the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program. Support is provided to federal and state agencies, First Nations, and public utility districts upon request. In addition, this project provides technology transfer through: (a) statistical software programs and documentation available publicly on the internet, (b) graduate student theses and dissertations, (c) scientific peer-reviewed articles, (d) BPA technical reports, (f) presentations, workshops, and instruction to the fisheries community, and (g) statistical consulting and guidance on the design and analysis of tagging studies. Outreach also includes quarterly publication of Salmon Insider newsletter, available on the internet or through e-mail subscription.
 
Project Proposal Contacts
Contact Organization Address Phone/Email Roles Notes
Form Submitter
John Skalski University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Ph: 206.685.1995
Fax: 206.616.7452
Email: jrs@cbr.washington.edu
Form Submitter
All Assigned Contacts
Cindy Helfrich University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Ph: 206 685-1995
Fax: 206 616-7452
Email: cindy@cbr.washington.edu
Administrative Contact
John Piccininni
Ph:
Fax:
Email: jppiccininni@bpa.gov
BPA Project Manager
John Skalski University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Ph: 206.685.1995
Fax: 206.616.7452
Email: jrs@cbr.washington.edu
Project Lead
Rich Townsend University of Washington 1325 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1820
Seattle, WA 98101-2509
Ph: (206) 616-7492
Fax: (206) 616-7452
Email: rich@u.washington.edu
Technical Contact

Section 2: Project Location
Sponsor Province: Mainstem/Systemwide ARG Province: Mainstem/Systemwide
Sponsor Subbasin: None Selected ARG Subbasin: Systemwide
Location(s) at which the action will be implemented
Latitude Longitude Waterbody Location Description County/State Subbasin Primary?
No Locations Entered

Section 3: Focal Species
Focal Species:
Primary Secondary Additional Species
All Anadromous Salmonids

Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Past Accomplishments for Each Fiscal Year of This Project
Fiscal Year Accomplishments
2005 Introduced Program ROSTER to estimate downriver smolt survival, ocean survival, upriver adult survival, smolt-to-adult ratios, transport-inriver effects, and delayed mortality from PIT-tag releases. Developed alternative models for fallbacks/straying.
2004 Developed statistical models to provide joint juvenile-to-adult PIT-tag survival analyses. Added diagnostic and graphical tools to Program USER. Expanded Program SampleSize to include replicate releases in the estimation of mean survival.
2003 Developed user manuals for all the major software packages (i.e., SURPH 2.1, USER 2.1, PitPro 1.0, and SampleSize 1.0). Debugged errors in programs as users tested the limits of software capabilities. Improved data entry capabilties in SURPH 2.1.
2002 Expanded Program USER.2 to estimate joint survival processes through hydroprojects or pool/dam passage survival. Released Program SampleSize for single and paired releases and transport-inriver survival studies. Released Program PitPro for PTAGIS files.
2001 Developed Program USER.1 to provide an extremely flexible and user-friendly environment to create statistical models for the analysis of juvenile and adult salmonid survival studies, especially for radio-tag and acoustic-tag applications.
2000 Released Program SURPH.2 with improved modeling capabilities, including the automatic ability to test model assumptions and produce more reliable confidence interval estimates. This is particularly suited to paired release-recapture studies.
1999 Developed a user-specified model development tool that permits investigators to create likelihood models tailored to their research, including radiotelemetry studies involving antenna arrays instead of fixed detection locations.
1998 Demonstrated the feasibility of estimating smolt survival and passage probabilities using radiotelemetry data. Developed longitudinal statistical analyses to analyze time-varying covariates in smolt survival studies.
1997 Released Program CaptHist to convert PITAGIS databases to formats suitable for survival estimation. Also developed batch routines to conduct large, repetitive data analyses of survival studies.
1996 Developed statistical methods for estimating season-wide survival. Investigated nonparametric methods for improved confidence intervals. Developed statistical models to estimate fall chinook salmon smolt survival and residualization probabilities.
1995 Produced a PC version of SURPH software and sample size program to design tag-release studies.
1994 Released Program SURPH and provided a user's manual for statistical analysis of data.
1993 Completed statistical software development of analysis package--final debugging of computer program. Co-investigator on first Snake River survival studies. Conducted evaluation of hatchery survival studies.
1992 Extended computer software to include analysis of group and individual covariate effectsl. Proposed "strawman" design for development of PIT-tag facilities on Snake/Columbia River. Developed study plan for a Snake River survival study evaluation.
1991 Developed statistical models for tag analyses that simultaneously assess ambient effects and individual covariate effects on smolt survival studies.
1990 Began software development for statistical analyses, and began statistical theory to assess individual covariate effects on survival.
1989 Developed theory to assess the relationship between smolt survival and ambient river conditions from PIT-tag release-recapture data.

Section 5: Relationships to Other Projects
Other Current Projects Related to this Project (any funding source)
Funding Source Related ID Related Project Title Relationship
BPA 198201301 Coded Wire Tag - PSMFC Complementary. Uses CWT database in tag analyses.
BPA 198331900 New Marking & Monitoring Tech Complementary. Provides technical assistance in evaluating new system performance and design of system-wide tag analyses.
BPA 198712700 Smolt Monitoring By Non-Feder Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses.
BPA 199008000 Columbia Basin Pit-Tag Informa Complementary. Uses PTAGIS database in tag analyses.
BPA 199102800 Pit Tagging Wild Chinook Complementary. Developing tagging models to better design wild fall and spring chinook salmon survival studies.
BPA 199105100 M&E Statistical Support For Li Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses.
BPA 199302900 Survival Est For Passage Throu Complementary. Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses.
BPA 200008000 Pacific Ocean Salmon Tracking Complementary. Consulting with investigators and exploring tagging models for multi-directional movement studies.
BPA 200100300 Adult Pit Detector Installatio Complementary. Consulting with action agencies on consequence of design choices on RM&E requirements.
BPA 200300900 Canada-Usa Shelf Sal Surv Stdy Consulting with investigators and exploring tagging models for multi-directional movement studies.
BPA 200311400 Acoustic Tracking For Survival Provides technical assistance and technology transfer of statistical software to assist in survival analyses.

Section 6: Biological Objectives
Biological Objectives of this Proposed Project There are no biological objectives associated with this proposal.

Section 7: Work Elements
Work Elements and Associated Biological Objectives
Work Element Name Work Element Title Description Start Date End Date Estimated Budget
1: Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Develop Methods & Tech. for Survival Analysis Develop and refine statistical methods, quantitative tools, and performance measures for the research, monitoring, and evaluation of salmonid life history through the hydrosystem. 12/1/2006 11/30/2009 $872,736
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

2: Develop RM&E Methods and Designs Provide Direct Statistical Support to NMFS To provide statistical support to NMFS to conduct smolt survival and transport studies, providing software engineering support for data analyses, statistical model development for field investigations, and peer review and coauthorship of technical and scientific papers 12/1/2006 11/30/2009 $152,290
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

3: Manage and Administer Projects Project Management Manage and administer project consistent with BPA and University of Washington requirements. 12/1/2006 11/30/2009 $77,372
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

4: Produce Status Report Submit quarterly report to BPA Status reports will be submitted at the end of each quarter on PISCES, updating the status of work elements and deliverables for the project. 12/1/2006 11/30/2009 $15,728
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

5: Produce Annual Report Submit annual report to BPA documenting activities and accomplishments. An annual report will be provided to the BPA documenting activities and accomplisments of the previous year. 12/1/2006 11/30/2009 $26,965
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element


Section 8: Budget

Itemized Estimated Budget
Item Note FY 2007 Cost FY 2008 Cost FY 2009 Cost
Personnel Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, graduate student $196,837 $202,742 $207,432
Fringe Benefits Faculty, postdoctoral research assistant, professional staff, graduate student $50,299 $51,808 $52,985
Supplies Services, computer software, noncapital equipment replacements and upgrades $8,831 $8,830 $8,830
Travel Includes trips to Portland at request of sponsor and onsite visitor parking $3,708 $3,764 $3,548
Overhead Facilities and administrative costs @ 26% $67,515 $69,457 $70,927
Other Lease; project located off campus $33,124 $34,449 $35,630
Other Graduate operating fee $11,232 $11,457 $11,686
Totals $371,546 $382,507 $391,038

Total Estimated FY 2007-2009 Budgets
Total Itemized Budget$1,145,091
Total Work Element budget$1,145,091

Cost sharing
Funding Source or Organization Item or Service Provided FY 2007 Est Value ($) FY 2008 Est Value ($) FY 2009 Est Value ($) Cash or in-kind? Status

Section 9: Project Future
Project Future Costs and/or Termination
FY 2010 Est Budget FY 2011 Est Budget Comments
$354,494 $364,774 Estimates based on continuing objectives and tasks
Future Operations & Maintenance Costs
Objectives, work elements, and budgets may change depending on the results of the BiOp, Remand, RM&E check-ins, and recovery status of salmonid stocks in the Columbia Basin.
 
Termination Date Comments
None There will be a continuing need in the Columbia Basin for statistical support for the design and analyses of salmonid survival studies, as technologies for tagging and detection and hydro operations continue to improve and change.
 
Final Deliverables

Section 10: Narrative
Document Type Size Date

Part 2 of 2. Reviews of Proposal
Administrative Review Group (ARG) Results
Account Type:
Expense
Location:
Province: Mainstem/Systemwide
Subbasin: Systemwide
Primary Focal Species
No Change
ARG Comments:


NPCC Final Funding Recommendations (October 23, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]

FY 2007 Budget
$251,228
FY 2008 Budget
$251,228
FY 2009 Budget
$251,228
Total NPCC Rec
$753,684
Budget Type:Expense
Budget Category:Basinwide
Recommendation:Fund
Comments:


NPCC Draft Funding Recommendations (September 15, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]

FY 2007 Budget
$251,228
FY 2008 Budget
$251,228
FY 2009 Budget
$251,228
Total NPCC Rec
$753,685
FY 2007 MSRT Rec
$251,228
FY 2008 MSRT Rec
$251,228
FY 2009 MSRT Rec
$251,228
Total MSRT Rec
$753,685
Budget Category:Basinwide
Comments:

Local or MSRT Comments: Fund at a level more consistent with the FY2006 funding level. Concern was raised about a $100,000 in contracts that were added to this project that were previously provided under a NOAA Fisheries project 199302900. The budget for 199302900 was reduced to move the funding into this project. As a relative priority within the Basinwide budget, this project may have to absorb this cost. This project should receive a slight increase (5%) to their FY 2006 budget level to support increased costs.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Final Review (August 31, 2006) [Download full document]

Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This is an excellent proposal that clearly describes an important and useful ongoing project. The relationship of this project to other projects is clearly summarized. The proposal provides a list of organizations that have been provided statistical support from this project

The methods are based on sound scientific principles. The project history section of the proposal provides a very impressive and significant list of contributions that this project has accomplished. The results have been reported to the region via a large number of technical reports and peer reviewed papers. There is an impressive history of peer-reviewed publications related to the past activities of the sponsors. Past performance indicates that facilities and personnel are very well qualified.

The evaluation of the success for most of the project activities is stated in terms of method development, computer program development, hours of consulting provided, and number and quality of journals for publications. Lacking is consulting client satisfaction survey information. Although the consulting load and presumable return of clients provides indirect evidence of satisfaction, there may be valuable information for improving quality that may be obtained by surveying all clients, not only those who return regularly. Sponsors should conduct a survey of consulting clients to obtain evidence of satisfaction and to provide information for quality improvement in the future and report the results of this survey in future proposals.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Preliminary Review (June 2, 2006) [Download full document]

Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This is an excellent proposal that clearly describes an important and useful ongoing project. The relationship of this project to other projects is clearly summarized. The proposal provides a list of organizations that have been provided statistical support from this project

The methods are based on sound scientific principles. The project history section of the proposal provides a very impressive and significant list of contributions that this project has accomplished. The results have been reported to the region via a large number of technical reports and peer reviewed papers. There is an impressive history of peer-reviewed publications related to the past activities of the sponsors. Past performance indicates that facilities and personnel are very well qualified.

The evaluation of the success for most of the project activities is stated in terms of method development, computer program development, hours of consulting provided, and number and quality of journals for publications. Lacking is consulting client satisfaction survey information. Although the consulting load and presumable return of clients provides indirect evidence of satisfaction, there may be valuable information for improving quality that may be obtained by surveying all clients, not only those who return regularly. Sponsors should conduct a survey of consulting clients to obtain evidence of satisfaction and to provide information for quality improvement in the future and report the results of this survey in future proposals.

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