FY 2007 Solicitation Homepage

Project Proposal Request for FY 2007 - FY 2009 Funding

Proposal 199102900: Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU

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Table of Contents
Part 1. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative
Section 2: Project Location
Section 3: Project Species
Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Section 5: Relationship to Other Projects
Section 6: Biological Objectives
Section 7: Work Elements
Section 8: Budget
Section 9: Project Future
Section 10: Documents
Part 2. Reviews
Part 1 of 2. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative Information
Process Information:
Date Proposal Submitted & Finalized Status Form Generator
January 9, 2006 Finalized William Connor

Proposal Type: Ongoing
Proposal Number: 199102900
Proposal Name: Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU
BPA Project Manager: Deborah Docherty
Agency, Institution or Organization: US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS)
Short Description: Our study seeks to identify the factors that contribute to changes in life history timing, growth, and survival of fall Chinook salmon juveniles so that decisions on hydrosystem operation and supplementation can be made informatively.
Information Transfer: The information collected by this project will be provided during face-to-face briefings, uploaded to PITAGIS and DART, and published in refereed journals.
 
Project Proposal Contacts
Contact Organization Address Phone/Email Roles Notes
Form Submitter
William Connor U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service PO Box 18
Ahsahka ID 83520
Ph: 208.476.7242
Fax: 208.476.3252
Email: william_connor@fws.gov
Form Submitter
All Assigned Contacts
William Connor U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service PO Box 18
Ahsahka ID 83520
Ph: 208.476.7242
Fax: 208.476.3252
Email: william_connor@fws.gov
Form Submitter

Section 2: Project Location
Sponsor Province: Mainstem/Systemwide ARG Province: No Change
Sponsor Subbasin: Systemwide ARG Subbasin: No Change
Location(s) at which the action will be implemented
Latitude Longitude Waterbody Location Description County/State Subbasin Primary?
N/A N/A Snake and Columbia rivers The study area includes the Snake River from Hells Canyon Dam to the Columbia River at McNary Dam Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, Systemwide No

Section 3: Focal Species
Focal Species:
Primary Secondary Additional Species
Chinook Snake River Fall ESU

Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Past Accomplishments for Each Fiscal Year of This Project
Fiscal Year Accomplishments
2005 PIT tagged and radio-tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
2004 PIT tagged and radio-tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY03 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
2003 PIT tagged and radio-tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY02 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
2002 PIT tagged and radio-tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY01 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
2001 PIT tagged and radio-tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY00 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
2000 PIT tagged and radio tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY99 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
1999 PIT tagged and radio tagged wild subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY98 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
1998 PIT tagged wild and hatchery subyearlings to study supplementation. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY97 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Published journal articles. Administered project.
1997 PIT tagged wild and hatchery subyearlings to study supplementation. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY96 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Administered project.
1996 Counted redds, studied spawning habitat, and PIT tagged subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY95 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Administered project.
1995 Counted redds, studied spawning habitat, and PIT tagged subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY94 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Administered project.
1994 Counted redds, studied spawning habitat, and PIT tagged subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY93 annual report. Provided an in season briefings. Administered project.
1993 Counted redds, studied spawning habitat, and PIT tagged subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY92 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Administered project.
1992 Counted redds, studied spawning habitat, and PIT tagged subyearlings. Proofed and shared the data. Prepared the FY91 annual report. Provided in season briefings. Administered project.
1991 Planned and redd surveys and implemented pilot beach seining. Counted redds and PIT tagged subyearlings. Proofed and uploaded data. Provided in-season briefings. Administered project.

Section 5: Relationships to Other Projects
Other Current Projects Related to this Project (any funding source)
Funding Source Related ID Related Project Title Relationship
Other: US Army Corps of Engineers [no entry] Post-release attributes of hatchery fall Chinook salmon released as surrogates for wild fall chinook salmon The USACE is presently providing 10,000 PIT tags for project 199102900, funding for an additional beach seining crew for three weeks, as well funding for the rearing and tagging of 328,000 hatchery fall Chinook salmon used as surrogates for wild fall Chinook salmon during an evaluation transportation and spill in the FCRPS. We are requesting supplemental funding through project 199102900 to analyze PIT tag data collected during 2005—2009 to determine if summer spill decreases travel time and increases the joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving from Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of McNary Dam.
Other: USFWS [no entry] A Comparison of acclimated and direct releases of Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings made upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir The USFWS LSCRP is presently funding the WDFW and NPT to evaluate post-release performance of Lyons Ferry Hatchery Fall Chinook salmon that are acclimated or directly released into the Snake River by staff of NPT (BPA; project 198335003). The USFWS LSCRP portion of this study funds PIT and coded-wire tagging of juveniles and the eventual comparisons of the SARs of acclimated and direct-released hatchery subyearlings. We are requesting supplemental funding through project 199102900 to analyze PIT tag data collected during 2005—2009 to make a series of comparisons among acclimated hatchery fish, directly-released hatchery fish, and wild fish to determine if acclimating subyearlings reduces the potential for interaction between hatchery and wild subyearlings.
BPA 198335003 Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery M&E Staff of project 199102900 provide early life history information on wild fall Chinook salmon that are beach seined in the Snake River that compliments data collected by NPT staff of project 198335003 who provide the early life history information on wild fall Chinook salmon that are beach seined in the Clearwater River. These two rivers support roughly 80% of existing fall Chinook salmon production upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir, with the remaining 20% being produced in lower reaches of tributaries such as the Imnaha, Salmon, and Grande Ronde rivers. We collaborate with staff of NPT in season to present data so that managers get a full population level perception of when young wild fall Chinook salmon are moving seaward and passing downstream in the FCRPS.
BPA 200203200 Fall Chin Passage Lower Granit Staff of project 200203200 monitor passage by the Lower Snake River dams in the winter when the juvenile fish bypass is not operated, whereas staff of project 199102900 monitor passage at the dams in the spring, summer, and fall when the juvenile fish bypass is operated.
BPA 200306000 Eval Repro Success Snake Rvr C Staff of project 200306000 evaluates the success of hatchery fall Chinook salmon spawning in the Snake River based in part on the genetic samples collected from juveniles during beach seining by staff of project 199102900.

Section 6: Biological Objectives
Biological Objectives of this Proposed Project
Biological Objective Full Description Associated Subbasin Plan Strategy Page Nos
(1) increasing FCRPS effectiveness The timing of dispersal from natal riverine habitat and passage through the FCRPS appears to have become earlier each year, but varies considerably among years. Accomplishing this objective will provide managers with in season data to plan hydrosystem operations and post-season data to help understand why life stage progression varies among years so that decisions regarding operation of the FCRPS can be made informatively. None 2000 RM&E Plan for the 2000 FCRPS BO (p 139, 145, 146, 218. Final UPA FCRPS BO Remand (p 90). 2005—2007 IPlan for the FCRPS ESA UPA (p 39). The NPCC's Columbia Basin Research Plan (p 75). See strategy
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook Wild fall Chinook salmon growth in fork length (mm/d), condition factor, and robustness (i.e., in body shape) has apparently decreased in recent years as densities increase in natal riverine habitat and Lower Granite Reservoir increase and the number of hatchery fish released for supplementation has increased. Accomplishing this objective will define the relation among, growth, physical factors, and biological factors so that managers can make decisions about supplementation informatively. None 2000 RM&E Plan for the 2000 FCRPS BO (p 139, 145, 146, 218. Final UPA FCRPS BO Remand (p 90). 2005—2007 IPlan for the FCRPS ESA UPA (p 39). The NPCC's Columbia Basin Research Plan (2004, p 76; 2005, p 79, 81). See strategy
(3) increasing the survival of wild fall Chinook The joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam has been well related to conditions in Lower Granite Reservoir. However, little is known about the effects of operation of Hells Canyon Complex on survival. Accomplishing this objective will relate survival in the FCRPS to conditions during rearing that can be influenced by Hells Canyon Complex. None 2000 RM&E Plan for the 2000 FCRPS BO (p 140, 141, 145). Final UPA FCRPS BO Remand (p 90). 2005—2007 IPlan for the FCRPS ESA UPA (p 39). The NPCC's Columbia Basin Research Plan (p 75). See strategy
(4) reduce wild-hatchery interaction It is assumed that Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings that are acclimated prior to release into the free-flowing Snake River upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir will pass the lower Snake River dams earlier, take fewer days after release to pass these dams, have a higher probability of actively migrating and surviving to pass these dams, exhibit faster growth and higher condition, and be more likely to express an ocean-type juvenile life history than Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings that are directly released and wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. Accomplishing this objective will provide managers with the information necessary to test these assumptions as well as understand how acclimation influences wild-hatchery fish interaction. Snake Hells Canyon 2A7 and 2 A8 (p 63). Also see the NPCC's Columbia Basin Research Plan (2004, p 7; 2005, p 71). See strategy
(5) understand summer spill It is assumed that summer spill will reduce forebay delay at each of the Lower Snake River dams; thereby decreasing the time it takes fall Chinook salmon subyearlings to pass from Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam, reducing the duration of exposure to warm summer temperatures and predators, and increasing the joint probability of active seaward migration and survival from Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of McNary Dam. Accomplishing this objective will test these assumption and provide managers with information on juvenile attributes to help interpret SARs calculated by a large-scale ongoing study. None 2000 RM&E Plan for the 2000 FCRPS BO (p 150, 162, 183-188). Final UPA FCRPS BO Remand (p 90). 2005—2007 IPlan for the FCRPS ESA UPA (p 39). The NPCC's Columbia Basin Research Plan (2005, p 75). See strategy

Section 7: Work Elements
Work Elements and Associated Biological Objectives
Work Element Name Work Element Title Description Start Date End Date Estimated Budget
010: Mark/Tag Animals Collect, Tag, and Release Fish Beach seine, PIT tag, and release wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings along the shorelines of the free-flowing Snake River. 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $328,278
Biological Objectives Metrics
(1) increasing FCRPS effectiveness
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research

011: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Monitor life stage timing and the biological and physical environments Upload the PIT-tag data to PITAGIS and download the detection data from PITAGIS. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $90,243
Biological Objectives Metrics
(1) increasing FCRPS effectiveness
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

012: Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze the effects of biological and physical alterations in the Snake River on changes in juvenile fall Chinook salmon life history timing. Relate changes in life history timing to biological and physical alterations in the Snake River so managers have information on run timing when planning FCRPS operation. 8/1/2007 5/31/2010 $42,651
Biological Objectives Metrics
(1) increasing FCRPS effectiveness
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

013: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Measuring fork length, weight, and morphology of wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings in the Snake River. Fish collected during objective 1 will be measured for growth and morphology analyses. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $40,863
Biological Objectives Metrics
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

014: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Monitor biological and physical environments Flows and temperatures will be measured and monitored when accomplishing objective 1. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $ 0
Biological Objectives Metrics
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

015: Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze the effects of biological and physical alterations in the Snake River on changes growth, condition, and morphology A comparison of growth and morphology made over time will detect changes due to biological and physical alterations. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $157,341
Biological Objectives Metrics
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

016: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Identify subyearling food consumption differences Wild subyearling fall Chinook salmon will be collected during beach seining and supplemental sampling in Lower Granite Reservoir to compare food consumption. 3/15/2007 11/30/2009 $40,863
Biological Objectives Metrics
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

017: Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze the effects of site-based food consumption on subyearling growth Analyze the effects of site-based food consumption on subyearling growth 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $157,341
Biological Objectives Metrics
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

018: Analyze/Interpret Data Determine fish densities in Hells Canyon rearing areas Existing and new information from the Snake River and Hanford Reach will be used to estimate densities and carry capacity. 3/15/2008 5/31/2010 $157,341
Biological Objectives Metrics
(2) maximizing growth of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Status and Trend Monitoring

019: Mark/Tag Animals Collect, Tag, and Release Fish Wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings will be collected, PIT tagged and released as part of Objective 1. 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $ 0
Biological Objectives Metrics
(3) increasing the survival of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

020: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Monitor tagging dates, detection dates, and the biological and physical environments Tagging, detection, biological, flow, and temperature data will be collected under Objective 1. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $ 0
Biological Objectives Metrics
(3) increasing the survival of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

021: Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze the effects of biological and physical alterations in the Snake River and Lower Granite Reservoir on changes in the joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving to pass Lower Granite Dam. Survival will be estimated to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam and related to changes in the biological environment caused by supplementation and the physical environment caused by Hells Canyon Complex. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $42,651
Biological Objectives Metrics
(3) increasing the survival of wild fall Chinook
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

022: Mark/Tag Animals Collect, Tag, and Release Fish Wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings will be tagged under Objective 1 and hatchery subyearlings will be tagged, acclimated, or tagged and released directly through cost-sharing with the USFWS LSCRP. 6/1/2007 5/31/2009 $ 0
Biological Objectives Metrics
(4) reduce wild-hatchery interaction
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

023: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Monitor tagging dates, detection dates, and post-release attributes PIT-tag and detection data will be uploaded and downloaded from to and from PITAGIS. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $38,829
Biological Objectives Metrics
(4) reduce wild-hatchery interaction
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

024: Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze the effects of acclimation relative to directly released hatchery subyearlings and wild Snake River fall Chinook salmon subyearlings Comparisons of post-release attributes will be made among wild, acclimated hatchery, and directly-released hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $40,719
Biological Objectives Metrics
(4) reduce wild-hatchery interaction
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

025: Mark/Tag Animals Collect, Tag, and Release Fish Wild fall Chinook salmon will be PIT tagged under Objective 1. Hatchery fall Chinook salmon used as surrorates will be PIT tagged as part of a study funded by USACE. 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $ 0
Biological Objectives Metrics
(5) understand summer spill
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

026: Collect/Generate/Validate Field and Lab Data Monitor tagging dates, detection dates, and the physical environments PIT-tag data for wild fish will be uploaded and downloaded to and from PITAGIS under Objective 1. The data for the hatchery fish will be processed by staff of the USACE funded study. The physical enviornment will monitored by USACE. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $ 0
Biological Objectives Metrics
(5) understand summer spill
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

027: Analyze/Interpret Data Analyze the effects of spill on travel time and the joint probability of active migration and survival The PIT-tag data collected on the wild and surrogate releases will be analyzed jointly to understand the factors that affect survival from Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam. 3/15/2007 5/31/2010 $42,651
Biological Objectives Metrics
(5) understand summer spill
Focal Area: Systemwide
Primary R, M, and E Type: Uncertainties Research
Secondary R, M, and E Type: Action Effectiveness Research

028: Manage and Administer Projects Manage and Administer Project The project will be managed and administered. 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $82,044
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

029: Disseminate Raw/Summary Data and Results Provide face-to-face in season briefings to managers We will provide in season briefings to any major forum upon request. Forums include but not limited to the NPCC, TMT, CBFWA, FPAC, ISAB, ISRG, TRT, and the AFS. 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $58,587
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

030: Produce Environmental Compliance Documentation NEPA documents, ESA permits, state collection permits Annual NEPA documents, ESA, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington collection permits 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $8,151
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

031: Other Quarterly Reports to PISCES to report status of milestones and deliverables Four quarterly reports per year 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $8,151
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

032: Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report Annual Reports Each year will write annual report including an abstract, introduction, methods, results, and discussion. Data will be tabulated and graphed. 6/1/2007 5/31/2010 $65,943
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

033: Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report A journal manuscript for each objective Each year the results and analyses will be compiled in the form of journal manuscripts to be published at the end of the study. 8/1/2007 5/31/2010 $96,546
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element


Section 8: Budget

Itemized Estimated Budget
Item Note FY 2007 Cost FY 2008 Cost FY 2009 Cost
Personnel 7 FTEs $274,061 $274,061 $274,061
Fringe Benefits [blank] $60,603 $60,603 $60,603
Supplies [blank] $33,572 $33,572 $33,572
Travel Required for field work and face-to-face briefings. $8,460 $8,460 $8,460
Capital Equipment [blank] $ 0 $ 0 $ 0
Overhead [blank] $123,035 $123,035 $123,035
Totals $499,731 $499,731 $499,731

Total Estimated FY 2007-2009 Budgets
Total Itemized Budget$1,499,193
Total Work Element budget$1,499,193

Cost sharing
Funding Source or Organization Item or Service Provided FY 2007 Est Value ($) FY 2008 Est Value ($) FY 2009 Est Value ($) Cash or in-kind? Status
Idaho Power Company Habitat modeling $350,000 $ 0 $ 0 In-Kind Confirmed
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers PIT-tagging $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 In-Kind Under Development
USFWS PIT-Tagging $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 In-Kind Confirmed
Totals $1,565,000 $1,215,000 $1,215,000

Section 9: Project Future
Project Future Costs and/or Termination
FY 2010 Est Budget FY 2011 Est Budget Comments
$230,878 $ 0 Funding to complete analyses of data collected through 5/31/2010.
Future Operations & Maintenance Costs
 
Termination Date Comments
5/31/2011 Assuming no additional data are collected in 2010.
 
Final Deliverables
Objective 1 Final Work Product: We will write a journal manuscript on biological and physical factors in the Snake River that affect juvenile life history timing of wild fall Chinook salmon. If the research hypothesis for Objective 1 is true, we expect to find the following. Emergence timing varies by year and is directly proportional to winter-spring temperatures. The timing of parr presence and smolt passage at dams vary by year and are: indirectly proportional to redd counts, CPUE, the number of hatchery subyearlings released, maximum flow, and flow pulse rate. The main finding of Objective 1 might be that wild fall Chinook salmon disperse from natal riverine habitat and pass the lower Snake River dams earlier than observed during the 1990s because adult escapement and densities in the rearing areas increased resulting in density-dependent downstream movement. The implication for adaptive hydrosystem management would be that timing summer flow augmentation and summer spill should be dependent on variability in life history progression opposed to a fixed schedule based on historical data (e.g., June 20 to 31 August). If the research hypothesis for Objective 1 is found to be false, summer flow augmentation and spill could be timed on a fixed schedule. Objective 2 Final Work Product: We will write a journal manuscript on biological and physical factors in the Snake River that affect wild fall Chinook salmon growth, condition, and morphology. If the research hypothesis for Objective 2 is true, we expect to find the following. The density of wild fall Chinook salmon in riverine habitat will increase over time and then stabilize as carrying capacity is achieved at densities similar to those estimated for the Hanford Reach. Growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature, but there will be an interaction between temperature and density dependent factors that cause growth to decrease at a given temperature as density increases. The millions of hatchery subyearlings released for supplementation in May will disperse downstream rapidly into the reservoir and deplete the food supply available for wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. Thus, in contrast to earlier findings by Connor and Burge (2003) smolt growth in the warmer waters of Lower Granite Reservoir will not exceed those observed in the relatively cooler water of the riverine habitat. We will also find that fish in the samples collected during the 1990s were more robust than those in the present-day samples and the P-values will be lower for fish collected in the reservoir than in riverine. However, the P-values calculated from monthly samples collected of fish in the reservoir will increase from May to October within a year because rearing densities will decrease after July and food will be plentiful for the fish destined to become reservoir-type juveniles. The main adaptive management implication of Objective 2 results might be that a balance exists between the benefits and detriments of supplementation; supplementation likely increases adult escapement and production, but results in a density dependent decrease in juvenile growth, condition, and body robustness. Harvest or reduced levels of supplementation might be considered. If the research hypothesis for Objective 2 is found to be false, harvest or a reduction in supplementation will be unnecessary. Objective 3 Final Work Product: We will write a manuscript on the biological and physical factors in the free-flowing Snake River and Lower Granite Reservoir that affect the joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam, 1998—2009. We expect to find the following if the Objective 3 research hypothesis is true. The regression model with the best fit for predicting the joint probability of active migration and survival to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam will include the predictor variables mean temperature during the early period of seaward movement in Lower Granite Reservoir (negative regression coefficient), the interaction term mean fork length during the latter period of rearing in riverine habitat x mean temperature during the early period of seaward movement (positive coefficient), and the interaction term mean flow during the latter period of rearing in riverine habitat x mean temperature during the early period of seaward movement (positive coefficient). The interaction terms will function to increase the predicted joint probability of wild fall Chinook salmon actively migrating and surviving to pass Lower Granite Dam when temperature is held constant, but fork length and flow are increased. These results would support the adaptive management alternative of increasing flow from the Hells Canyon Complex during the latter period of rearing in riverine habitat in May and June. Increasing flow from the Hells Canyon Complex would be unnecessary if the Objective 3 research hypothesis is found to be false. Objective 4 Final Work Product: We will coauthor a journal manuscript with staff of WDFW, NPT, and the University of Idaho on the post-release attributes of acclimated hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings, directly released hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings, and wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. We expect to find the following if the Objective 4 research hypothesis is true. Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings that are acclimated prior to release into the free-flowing Snake River upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir will pass the lower Snake River dams earlier, take fewer days after release to pass these dams, have a higher probability of actively migrating and surviving to pass these dams, exhibit faster growth and higher condition, and be more likely to express an ocean-type juvenile life history than Lyons Ferry Hatchery fall Chinook salmon subyearlings that are directly released and wild fall Chinook salmon subyearlings. Moreover, the differences in passage date, travel time, and the joint probability of actively migrating and surviving associated with acclimation will be useful when interpreting differences in the SARs calculated by Schuck et al. (2005) for coded-wire tagged acclimated and directly released hatchery fall Chinook salmon. The adaptive management implications of these findings will be that acclimation is a beneficial process because it reduces the potential for interaction between hatchery and wild subyearlings. Direct releases of hatchery subyearlings, on the other hand, will be viewed as being benign in terms of wild-hatchery fish interactions if the Objective 4 research hypothesis is found to be false. Objective 5 Final Work Product: At a minimum, accomplishing Objective 5 from 2007 to 2009 will provide baseline data for modeling the joint probability of fall Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild combined) actively migrating and surviving from Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam with periodic validation with wild fish data when sample sizes allow. We expect to find the following if the Objective 5 research hypothesis is true and our study continues through 2013. Summer spill will reduce forebay delay at each of the Lower Snake River dams; thereby, (1) decreasing the time it takes fall Chinook salmon subyearlings to pass from Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam, (2) reducing the duration of exposure to warm summer temperatures and predators, and (3) increasing the joint probability of active seaward migration and survival from Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of McNary Dam. Moreover, the shorter travel times and higher probabilities of actively migrating associated with spill will help to explain the variability in the SARs calculated for fall Chinook salmon by staff of the large-scale interagency tribal study started by Marsh and Connor (2005). The adaptive management implication of these joint findings might be that some level of summer spill should be implemented annually. Maximizing transportation will be the alternative to spill if the Objective 5 research hypothesis is found to be false; and spill, travel time, and the joint probability of actively migrating and surviving do not influence SARs.

Section 10: Narrative
Document Type Size Date

Part 2 of 2. Reviews of Proposal
Administrative Review Group (ARG) Results
Account Type:
Expense
No changes were made to this proposal


NPCC Final Funding Recommendations (October 23, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]

FY 2007 Budget
$456,375
FY 2008 Budget
$456,375
FY 2009 Budget
$456,375
Total NPCC Rec
$1,369,125
Budget Type:Expense
Budget Category:Basinwide
Recommendation:Fund
Comments:


NPCC Draft Funding Recommendations (September 15, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]

FY 2007 Budget
$456,375
FY 2008 Budget
$456,375
FY 2009 Budget
$456,375
Total NPCC Rec
$1,369,125
FY 2007 MSRT Rec
$456,375
FY 2008 MSRT Rec
$456,375
FY 2009 MSRT Rec
$456,375
Total MSRT Rec
$1,369,125
Budget Category:Basinwide
Comments:

Local or MSRT Comments: Due to the limited funding environment, the MSRT recommends sequencing the work within this project to meet FY 2006 funding levels for the next three years, with $100,000 of added funding annually to support the density dependence portion of the study.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Final Review (August 31, 2006) [Download full document]

Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This is a well-prepared proposal to continue a project that has been exceptionally productive and well organized. In many respects it is a model proposal. The project is devoted to Snake River fall Chinook and has a proven track record of providing important information necessary to this species' recovery and deserves to be continued.

The technical and scientific background is very well written with a clear explanation of the project's history and a persuasive rationale for the work. A point the sponsors may wish to consider is that the use of F1 and F2 generations for supplementation seem ambiguous, and probably inappropriately used here. Is the F1 generation those individuals that are of hatchery-origin, and the F2 those individual born in the wild from the F1 (hatchery-origin) parents? In at least some circles, the hatchery-origin adults spawning in the wild would be the P1 generation; the progeny of these hatchery fish spawning naturally the F1 generation, and their progeny the F2 generation.

The proposal does a very good job of relating the work to the FCRPS BiOps, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, and the various COE programs. Subbasin plans aren't mentioned although Snake River fall Chinook do enter the lower reaches of several subbasins. There is a good description of the relationship of this project to other work.

The proposal sets a standard for a concise year-by-year summary of the project's history, along with the reports and peer-reviewed publications. The proposal sets an example for others by identifying the adaptive management implications of their investigations.

Objectives, hypotheses, and methods are clearly described, along with the timelines for completion. The proposal was very explicit, right down to the sample size and statistical tests in many instances. The methods have a proven track record. One statement that may be in error is that "growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature." Actually, this statement will only be true over the cooler range and if food availability increases in direct proportion to temperature and provides enough to compensate for the increased basal metabolic requirements of the fish that accompany higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, generally above about 18°C for Chinook salmon, growth rate normally declines because of over-riding metabolic demands. In other words, there may be some scenarios in which growth of parr and smolts is inversely proportional to temperature if temperatures are high and food resources are inadequate. An accurate estimation of food availability is needed, especially when making inferences about the potential for reduced growth of wild fish in the face of large numbers of supplemented fish (these comments apply to Objective 2).

The project will be thoroughly monitored and evaluated. The statistical analyses have been peer-reviewed (in prior publications) and are suitable. The proposal gives a good description of how the results can feed back into hydrosystem operations decisions, e.g., summer spill.

An excellent feature of the proposal is clear identification of how they are going to use their primary data to test prevailing assumptions about the state of nature, and then the implications of the inference for the next steps in developing management options. Most proposals fail to make a clear connection between the studies they are proposing and deciding among (or designing new) management schemes.

The results will be made available in reports, peer-reviewed publications, internet postings, and presentations. Plans for long-term storage of data and meta-data are not completely described, but they are assumed to be adequate. The project staff are some of the best publishers among all BPA projects.

In summary, this is a fine example of an effective proposal.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Preliminary Review (June 2, 2006) [Download full document]

Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This is a well-prepared proposal to continue a project that has been exceptionally productive and well organized. In many respects it is a model proposal. The project is devoted to Snake River fall Chinook and has a proven track record of providing important information necessary to this species' recovery and deserves to be continued.

The technical and scientific background is very well written with a clear explanation of the project's history and a persuasive rationale for the work. A point the sponsors may wish to consider is that the use of F1 and F2 generations for supplementation seem ambiguous, and probably inappropriately used here. Is the F1 generation those individuals that are of hatchery-origin, and the F2 those individual born in the wild from the F1 (hatchery-origin) parents? In at least some circles, the hatchery-origin adults spawning in the wild would be the P1 generation; the progeny of these hatchery fish spawning naturally the F1 generation, and their progeny the F2 generation.

The proposal does a very good job of relating the work to the FCRPS BiOps, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, and the various COE programs. Subbasin plans aren't mentioned although Snake River fall Chinook do enter the lower reaches of several subbasins. There is a good description of the relationship of this project to other work.

The proposal sets a standard for a concise year-by-year summary of the project's history, along with the reports and peer-reviewed publications. The proposal sets an example for others by identifying the adaptive management implications of their investigations.

Objectives, hypotheses, and methods are clearly described, along with the timelines for completion. The proposal was very explicit, right down to the sample size and statistical tests in many instances. The methods have a proven track record. One statement that may be in error is that "growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature." Actually, this statement will only be true over the cooler range and if food availability increases in direct proportion to temperature and provides enough to compensate for the increased basal metabolic requirements of the fish that accompany higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, generally above about 18°C for Chinook salmon, growth rate normally declines because of over-riding metabolic demands. In other words, there may be some scenarios in which growth of parr and smolts is inversely proportional to temperature if temperatures are high and food resources are inadequate. An accurate estimation of food availability is needed, especially when making inferences about the potential for reduced growth of wild fish in the face of large numbers of supplemented fish (these comments apply to Objective 2).

The project will be thoroughly monitored and evaluated. The statistical analyses have been peer-reviewed (in prior publications) and are suitable. The proposal gives a good description of how the results can feed back into hydrosystem operations decisions, e.g., summer spill.

An excellent feature of the proposal is clear identification of how they are going to use their primary data to test prevailing assumptions about the state of nature, and then the implications of the inference for the next steps in developing management options. Most proposals fail to make a clear connection between the studies they are proposing and deciding among (or designing new) management schemes.

The results will be made available in reports, peer-reviewed publications, internet postings, and presentations. Plans for long-term storage of data and meta-data are not completely described, but they are assumed to be adequate. The project staff are some of the best publishers among all BPA projects.

In summary, this is a fine example of an effective proposal.

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