FY 2007 Solicitation Homepage

Project Proposal Request for FY 2007 - FY 2009 Funding

Proposal 200202700: Forecasting Hydrosystem Operations to Benefit Anadromous Fish Migration

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Table of Contents
Part 1. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative
Section 2: Project Location
Section 3: Project Species
Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Section 5: Relationship to Other Projects
Section 6: Biological Objectives
Section 7: Work Elements
Section 8: Budget
Section 9: Project Future
Section 10: Documents
Part 2. Reviews
Part 1 of 2. Administration and Budgeting
Section 1: General Administrative Information
Process Information:
Date Proposal Submitted & Finalized Status Form Generator
January 10, 2006 Finalized Christopher Cook

Proposal Type: Ongoing
Proposal Number: 200202700
Proposal Name: Forecasting Hydrosystem Operations to Benefit Anadromous Fish Migration
BPA Project Manager: John Piccininni
Agency, Institution or Organization: US Department of Energy (DOE)
Short Description: We propose to apply state-of-the-art computer models that describe the complex power-generation, hydrodynamic, and water quality environment in the lower Snake and lower Columbia rivers and to relate this information back to impacts on migrating salmon.
Information Transfer: Information will be available in the form of a final report and peer-reviewed publications. Publications will be available on the Web as downloadable PDF format documents. Results from model simulations will be available through the Web as GIS layers and/or text data files. Expected outcomes of this project are quantitative.
 
Project Proposal Contacts
Contact Organization Address Phone/Email Roles Notes
Form Submitter
Christopher Cook Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999 (K9-33)
Richland WA 99352
Ph: 509.375.6878
Fax: 509.372.6089
Email: chris.cook@pnl.gov
Form Submitter
All Assigned Contacts
Richard Allen Synexus Global Inc. 4342 Queen St
Niagra Falls, Ontario, Canada L2E 6W1
Ph: 905.374.0701 x5435
Fax: 905.357.6997
Email: rallen@synexusglobal.com
Technical Contact
Christopher Cook Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999 (K9-33)
Richland WA 99352
Ph: 509.375.6878
Fax: 509.372.6089
Email: chris.cook@pnl.gov
Form Submitter
Project Lead
Technical Contact
Dennis Dauble Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999, K6-84
Richland WA 99352
Ph: 509.376.3631
Fax: 509.373.1153
Email: dd.dauble@pnl.gov
Technical Contact
Diana Hurdowar-Castro Synexus Global Inc. 4342 Queen St
Niagra Falls, Ontario, Canada L2E 6W1
Ph: 905.374.0701 x5333
Fax: 905.357.6997
Email: dhurdowar@synexusglobal.com
Technical Contact
Marshall Richmond Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999 (K9-33)
Richland WA 99352
Ph: 509.372.6241
Fax: 509.372.6089
Email: marshall.richmond@pnl.gov
Technical Contact
John Serkowski Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999 (K9-33)
Richland, WA 99352
Ph: 509.375.6710
Fax: 509.372.6089
Email: john.serkowski@pnl.gov
Technical Contact
Lance Vail Pacific NW National Laboratory P.O. Box 999
Richland, Washington 99352
Ph: 509 372-6237
Fax: 509 372-6089
Email: lance.vail@pnl.gov
Technical Contact

Section 2: Project Location
Sponsor Province: Mainstem/Systemwide ARG Province: No Change
Sponsor Subbasin: Systemwide ARG Subbasin: No Change
Location(s) at which the action will be implemented
Latitude Longitude Waterbody Location Description County/State Subbasin Primary?
45.917 -119.333 Columbia River McNary Dam (Lake Wallula) Benton, Washington Columbia Lower Middle No
45.7 -120.67 Columbia River John Day Dam (Lake Umatilla) Klickitat, Washington Columbia Lower Middle No
45.6 -121.1 Columbia River The Dalles Dam (Lake Celilo) Klickitat, Washington Columbia Lower Middle No
45.6 -121.95 Columbia River Bonneville Dam and Lake Skamania, Washington Columbia Gorge No
46.65 -117.417 Snake River Lower Granite Dam and Reservoir Whitman, Washington Snake Lower No
46.583 -118.017 Snake River Little Goose Reservoir (Lake Bryan) Whitman, Washington Snake Lower No
46.55 -118.533 Snake River Lower Monumental Reservoir (Lake HG West) Franklin, Washington Snake Lower No
46.233 -118.867 Snake River Ice Harbor Reservoir (Lake Sacajawea) Walla Walla, Washington Snake Lower No

Section 3: Focal Species
Focal Species:
Primary Secondary Additional Species
All Anadromous Fish
All Anadromous Salmonids
Chinook Snake River Fall ESU

Section 4: Past Accomplishments
Past Accomplishments for Each Fiscal Year of This Project
Fiscal Year Accomplishments
2005 Calib/Valid CE-QUAL-W2 models. Cook, CB, B Dibrani, MC Richmond, et al (2005) Hydraulic Characteristics of the Lower Snake River during Periods of Juvenile Fall Chinook Salmon Migration, PNNL-15532, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Project Final Report.
2004 Release of all project collected field data (2002, 2003, 2004): long-term monitoring of water temperature (>100 temp loggers), water velocity (multiple ADCP surveys), bathymetry survey, and met conditions (AgriMet station) at Lower Granite Res.
2003 Cook, C.B. and M.C. Richmond (2004). Monitoring and Simulating 3-D Density Currents at the Confluence of the Snake and Clearwater Rivers, in Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management, ed. by Sehike, Hayes, & Stevens, ASCE press.
2002 Cook C.B., C.L. Rakowski, M.C. Richmond, et al. (2003) Numerically Simulating the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Environment for Migrating Salmon in the Lower Snake River, PNNL-14297, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Project Report.

Section 5: Relationships to Other Projects
Other Current Projects Related to this Project (any funding source)
Funding Source Related ID Related Project Title Relationship
BPA 199102900 Post-Release Survival of Fall Numerical models applied in proj 2002027 will augment this project by providing information on the physical river environment, under both existing and proposed flow strategies, that are not possible by monitoring alone.
BPA 200203200 Fall Chin Passage Lower Granit Numerical models applied in proj 2002027 will augment this project by providing information on the physical river environment, under both existing and proposed flow strategies, that are not possible by monitoring alone
Other: NOAA/USACE RPA 143 Water temperature modeling group Collaboration, data sharing, and model development results sharing.

Section 6: Biological Objectives
Biological Objectives of this Proposed Project
Biological Objective Full Description Associated Subbasin Plan Strategy Page Nos
flow augmentation conditions decrease uncertainty regarding the effects of flow augmentation by quantifying downstream changes in water velocity, total dissolved gas concentrations, and water temperature. None ISAB 2003-1: Review of Flow Augmentation AND Mainstem amendments, Overarching strategies, pg 16, pg 22 AND the 2004 UPA Section III.E, ESP Specific Actions, Key Alternatives under Development, pg 43 AND the 2000 BiOp RPA143 in description
forecast alternative watershed conditions using a Monte-Carlo analysis, forecast mainstem river conditions and associated power generation/costs under various operational strategies, constraints, and meteorological uncertainties. None Mainstem Amendments, specific objectives and performance standards, pg 12 and 21, AND Mainstem Amendments, strategies in water management, pg 22, AND the 2004 BiOp UPA, RME Substrategy 2.1, pg 91 and UPA Section III.E. ESP Specific Actions, Key Alts, p 43 in description
load following/peaking-power operations quantify changes in water velocity/water quality associated with load-following operations, quantify hydroelectric costs associated with these operations, and link with collaborating projects studying the biological impacts of load following None ISAB 2003-1: Review of Flow Augmentation AND Mainstem Amendments, Overarching strategies, pg 16, 19, 22 AND the 2004 UPA Section IV, RME Substrategy 2.1, pg 91 in description
natural hydrograph restoration computation of volume allocation trade-offs, computation of the hydraulic/water quality effects (travel time, dissolved gas levels, etc) due to various operation strategies, and computation of the associated hydroelectric power revenue None Mainstem Amendments, specific objectives and performance standards, pg 12 and 21, AND Mainstem Amendments, Overarching Strategies, pg 16. in description
spillway discharge optimization provide fisheries and dam operators with information to optimize spillway discharge levels that do not exceed dissolved gas standards, quantify the associated hydroelectric costs, and link with collaborating projects that are studying the biological impacts of dissolved gas and tailrace egress. None Mainstem Amendments, specific objectives and performance standards, pg 13, AND Mainstem Amendments, Specific objectives for migration conditions, pg 19 in description

Section 7: Work Elements
Work Elements and Associated Biological Objectives
Work Element Name Work Element Title Description Start Date End Date Estimated Budget
01: Analyze/Interpret Data WE1 - Adapt hydropower model ColumbiaVISTA to the project’s domain and simulate hydrologic conditions. Power and water operations will initially be simulated for the entire Columbia River system in 8-hour blocks over one representative yearly hydrologic cycle. Results will be generated for two scenarios: • “Status Quo” -- using current rulings regarding voluntary/involuntary spill, minimum flows, and spill pattern as decided by fisheries managers/dam operators • “Flexible Constraint Set” – Rigid constraints on the modeled hydropower system will be relaxed This will be followed by more detailed operations analyses over the same one year horizon for a geographically limited area—the eight reservoirs shown in Figure 1. The hourly sequence of water levels and flows for each reach of the system will be determined for the two cases identified above, and will serve as input boundary conditions for the other models. The power revenues for each case will also be quantified. 1/1/2007 9/30/2007 $150,857
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

02: Analyze/Interpret Data WE2 - Adapt the 2D (longitudinal-lateral) hydrodynamic and dissolved gas model MASS2 to the project’s domain and simulate hydrologic conditions. The existing MASS2 model will be configured and applied to the eight reservoirs and a 35-mile reach downstream of Bonneville Dam shown in Figure 1. Spillway dissolved gas generation characteristics (source functions, spill patterns) have changed somewhat since the model was developed, but during this initial phase of the project the existing model functions will be retained. The upstream boundaries of the model will be the free-flowing Columbia, lower Clearwater, and middle Snake rivers. The operations data required for MASS2 will be generated in Work Element 1. Using those operations, MASS2 results will be generated for 2007 conditions. 1/1/2007 9/30/2007 $94,803
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

03: Analyze/Interpret Data WE3 - Adapt the 2D (longitudinal-vertical) hydrodynamic and water temperature model CE-QUAL-W2 to the project’s domain and simulate hydrologic conditions. The existing CE-QUAL-W2 model will be extended from the lower Snake River (scope of previous project) to include the lower Columbia River downstream to Bonneville Dam. Model results will be checked against available 2007 field data, however any identified improvements will be resolved under Work Element 7. The upstream boundaries of the model will be the free-flowing Columbia, lower Clearwater, and middle Snake rivers. The operations data required for CE-QUAL-W2 will be generated in Work Element 1. Using those operations, CE-QUAL-W2 results will be generated for 2007 conditions. 1/1/2007 9/30/2007 $94,985
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

04: Analyze/Interpret Data WE4 - Generate reservoir-integrated metrics (FINS) and produce preliminary visualization of model results Results generated by the hydrodynamic models (MASS2 and CE-QUAL-W2) will be visualized using the particle tracking model FINS. Particles will be introduced into the upstream boundary of the domain and tracked through the system. Time histories of water velocity (and hence time-of-travel), dissolved gas exposure, and water temperature will be computed. Also under this task, static contour maps of dissolved oxygen (plan view) and temperature (reservoir centerline) will be generated, plus methods for showing reservoir-by-reservoir power generation and associated costs. 6/1/2007 9/30/2007 $44,165
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

05: Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report WE5 - Prepare Year 1 annual report A technical report will be generated that documents outcomes of Work Elements 1 through 4. These Work Elements cover application of the existing models to the project’s domain and simulation of hydrologic conditions during parts of 2007. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendation, and literature cited section, as well as tables, figures, and data appendices. 8/1/2007 9/30/2007 $39,534
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

06: Analyze/Interpret Data WE6 - Develop mechanisms for water quality model results to impact the hydropower model. Methods will be developed to take information generated by Work Element 4 (water quality model results and particle tracking model results) and incorporate that information back into the ColumbiaVISTA decision support system. This represents a major shift regarding how flows (i.e., system-wide power operations/generation) are released/optimized since water quality will now be directly incorporated. Initially, the results from the first iteration of Task 1 and Task 4 will be used to refine the operational constraints to yield the desired target water quality and fish habitat. Task 1 and Task 4 will then be repeated to yield modified results with improved fishery habitat knowledge and improved power economics. Subsequently, the relationship between the hydrologic constraints and the environmental quality outcome will be utilized on a periodic basis (e.g. weekly) during an AUTO Vista run. We anticipate that AUTO Vista will operate according to the following sequence. • AUTO Vista will simulate a one week period, using constraints • quality models then simulate that week, using Vista water levels and flows as input. Constraints for the following week will be established based on the quality outputs (e.g. percent spill will be adjusted based on water quality conditions). • AUTO Vista will then simulate the following week, and so on. 10/1/2007 9/30/2008 $138,214
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

07: Analyze/Interpret Data WE7 - Validate the modeling suite using 2007 field data Both hydrodynamic and water quality models will be validated using 2007 field data, including time series of actual project operations, observed total dissolved gas concentrations, and water temperature. Model improvements identified under Work Elements 2 and 3 will be implemented to improve model reliability and robustness. Expected improvements include updating bathymetric representations of the river resulting from dredging activities, dissolved gas parameterization, swimming depth for juvenile fish (FINS), etc. Goodness-of-fit metrics will be developed that quantify the ability of the models to simulate the range of hydraulic and water quality conditions.. 10/1/2007 9/30/2008 $149,922
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

08: Analyze/Interpret Data WE8 - Simulate hydrologic conditions for the 2008 field season The 2008 field season (i.e., periods when TDG fixed monitoring data and thermistor string data in the lower Snake River are available) will be simulated by the hydrodynamic and water quality models. Model boundary conditions will be the boundary conditions generated under Work Element 6. Using those operations data, the improved models developed under Work Element 7 will be checked against available 2008 field data. 6/1/2008 9/30/2008 $53,743
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

09: Analyze/Interpret Data WE9 - Improve visualization of model results Model results generated by VISTA, CE-QUAL-W2, MASS2, and FINS visualized using advanced visualization techniques which are capable of generate visualization automatically with little user intervention. Time histories of water velocity (and hence time-of-travel), dissolved gas exposure, and water temperature will be computed. In addition, dynamic (i.e., animated movies) contour maps of dissolved oxygen (plan view) and temperature (reservoir centerline) will be generated, plus methods for showing reservoir-by-reservoir power generation and associated costs. 6/1/2008 9/30/2008 $53,556
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

10: Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report WE10 - Prepare Year 2 annual report A technical report will be generated that documents outcomes of Work Elements 6 through 9. These Work Elements cover linking of model results to improve forecasting/optimization abilities for anadromous fish, validation of the hydrodynamic and water quality models, and application of the models to the 2008 salmon migration period. In addition, improved visualization techniques will be developed. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendation, and literature cited section, as well as tables, figures, and data appendices. 8/1/2008 9/30/2008 $33,570
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

11: Analyze/Interpret Data WE11 - Develop mechanisms for near-real-time (in-season) use of the modeling suite. The biological objectives tracked by this project would be more useful to the Action Agencies, fisheries managers, and other concerned parties if near-real-time information regarding the state-of-the-system could be achieved. Data collection by the US Army Corps (dam ops (SCADA/GDACS), fixed DGAS monitors, and thermistor string data in lower Snake River reservoir forebays) is becoming available. Such data should be used for forecasting and in-season decision-making to maximize biological health. This work element will test the feasibility of using near-real-time hourly data to generate week-ahead +forecasts of hydrologic conditions and water quality parameters. Forecasts will be updated on a daily basis to dynamically assist fisheries, power, and water managers in decision making. 10/1/2008 9/30/2009 $275,413
Biological Objectives Metrics
flow augmentation conditions
forecast alternative watershed conditions
load following/peaking-power operations
natural hydrograph restoration
spillway discharge optimization
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

12: Analyze/Interpret Data WE12 - Refine and improve visualization techniques to display power generation costs, hydrodynamic conditions, and water quality parameters for near-real-time visualization. As with Work Element 9, our goal is to approach near-real-time model domain maps and forecasts. This work element is to improve visualization techniques and to display to the region for consensus regarding the most useful format and posting (e.g., DART web-site). 10/1/2008 9/30/2009 $60,187
Biological Objectives Metrics
Focal Area: limited Systemwide: see Figure 1

13: Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report WE13 - Prepare project completion report In the final year of the project the principal investigators will prepare a project completion report that summarizes all three years of the project and includes the final year’s annual data. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendations, and literature cited sections, as well as tables, figures and data appendices. 4/1/2009 9/30/2009 $60,558
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

14: Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report WE14 - Write article(s) for submission to peer-reviewed journals At the completion of this project, and possibly sooner, if warranted by preliminary results, the principal investigators will collaborate to submit paper(s) to peer reviewed scientific journals such as ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, and/or other journals as appropriate. 1/1/2007 9/30/2009 $33,696
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

15: Manage and Administer Projects WE15 - Manage project Each of the principal investigators will be responsible for management of the overall project, as well as their organizational responsibilities. Management activities will include administrative responsibilities required for compliance with BPA program requirements such as metric reporting, financial reporting (accruals), and development of annual statements of work. 1/1/2007 9/30/2009 $35,709
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element

16: Manage and Administer Projects WE16 - Prepare quarterly reports (WE 185) Quarterly reports to BPA’s contracting offices technical representative (COTR) will be prepared by PNNL. These reports will describe any particularly interesting results obtained during the quarter, any deviations from the scheduled work, a plan for correcting those problems, and a budget analysis. 1/1/2007 9/30/2009 $34,454
Biological Objectives Metrics
No Metrics for this Work Element


Section 8: Budget

Itemized Estimated Budget
Item Note FY 2007 Cost FY 2008 Cost FY 2009 Cost
Personnel FTE= Sci Eng=3.55;Admin Prof 0.02; Clerical 1.03 $102,590 $106,014 $110,568
Fringe Benefits Based on 6248 Hours $35,496 $35,833 $35,934
Supplies Computing Hardware, printer consumables, Field View License, Mat'l Lab License $15,059 $14,798 $15,154
Travel Niagara Falls, Ontario Canada $4,034 $4,115 $4,214
Other Subcontract: Synexus Global $125,000 $125,000 $125,000
Overhead Org OH, Program Dev, G&A, Serv Assesment $164,368 $166,171 $164,018
Totals $446,547 $451,931 $454,888

Total Estimated FY 2007-2009 Budgets
Total Itemized Budget$1,353,366
Total Work Element budget$1,353,366

Cost sharing
Funding Source or Organization Item or Service Provided FY 2007 Est Value ($) FY 2008 Est Value ($) FY 2009 Est Value ($) Cash or in-kind? Status

Section 9: Project Future
Project Future Costs and/or Termination
FY 2010 Est Budget FY 2011 Est Budget Comments
$ 0 $ 0
Future Operations & Maintenance Costs
 
Termination Date Comments
9/30/2009
 
Final Deliverables
In the final year of the project the principal investigators will prepare a project completion report that summarizes all three years of the project and includes the final year’s annual data. The report will follow standard scientific format and include an executive summary, introduction, methods, results, discussion, recommendations, and literature cited sections, as well as tables, figures and data appendices. At the completion of this project, and possibly sooner, if warranted by preliminary results, the principal investigators will collaborate to submit paper(s) to peer reviewed scientific journals such as ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, and/or other journals as appropriate.

Section 10: Narrative
Document Type Size Date

Part 2 of 2. Reviews of Proposal
Administrative Review Group (ARG) Results
Account Type:
Expense
No changes were made to this proposal


NPCC Final Funding Recommendations (October 23, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]

FY 2007 Budget
$ 0
FY 2008 Budget
$ 0
FY 2009 Budget
$ 0
Total NPCC Rec
$ 0
Budget Type:Expense
Budget Category:Basinwide
Recommendation:Do Not Fund
Comments:


NPCC Draft Funding Recommendations (September 15, 2006) [Full NPCC Council Recs]

FY 2007 Budget
$ 0
FY 2008 Budget
$ 0
FY 2009 Budget
$ 0
Total NPCC Rec
$ 0
FY 2007 MSRT Rec
$ 0
FY 2008 MSRT Rec
$ 0
FY 2009 MSRT Rec
$ 0
Total MSRT Rec
$ 0
Budget Category:Basinwide
Comments:


Independent Scientific Review Panel Final Review (August 31, 2006) [Download full document]

Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This proposal is intended to link results of individual hydraulic, power generation, water quality, and particle tracking models (some of which have been in use for several years) to improve the forecasting/optimization abilities for anadromous fish. The investigators would validate the hydrodynamic and water quality models, and apply the models to the 2008 salmon migration period.

In addition, improved visualization techniques will be developed. This proposal does a good job of outlining the values of the individual models and the combined model suite. With the possible exception of the FINS model that puts them all together, the individual models have been tested and accepted in the basin. The linking of hydrodynamic and water quality models should begin the movement to a more dynamic management of the hydrosystem.

The proposal provides discrete systematic objectives, with reasonable timelines. Quantifying impacts of hydrosystem operation will decrease the uncertainty about the effects of flow augmentation and load following, and will help optimize spillway discharge, make tradeoffs in alternative volume allocations, and forecast alternative watershed conditions. The investigators will file project reports and, if appropriate, publish in peer-reviewed journals. Also, they will explore making their results available in near real time, which would be of great value to managers of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). However, they have not been very good about communicating their results in the past -- mainly a handful of project reports and proceedings.

The proposal could be improved by providing more details about the biological benefits and the adaptive management aspects. They talk about the need for a three-dimensional model but state they are going to use a two-dimensional model. Salmon are treated as passive particles, which can be problematic. There will be limits to how this can actually be applied.

Even with the limits of the fish components of this model, exploration of the physical components of the model will be useful. This effort should get better as time and knowledge progresses. For load following, they might need shorter duration than eight-hour periods. It is good that they are looking at this.

A better understanding of the dynamics of the hydrosystem and better control of temperature and dissolved gas enabled by these models would benefit both anadromous fish and non-focal species.


Independent Scientific Review Panel Preliminary Review (June 2, 2006) [Download full document]

Recommendation: Fundable
NPCC Comments: This proposal is intended to link results of individual hydraulic, power generation, water quality, and particle tracking models (some of which have been in use for several years) to improve the forecasting/optimization abilities for anadromous fish. The investigators would validate the hydrodynamic and water quality models, and apply the models to the 2008 salmon migration period.

In addition, improved visualization techniques will be developed. This proposal does a good job of outlining the values of the individual models and the combined model suite. With the possible exception of the FINS model that puts them all together, the individual models have been tested and accepted in the basin. The linking of hydrodynamic and water quality models should begin the movement to a more dynamic management of the hydrosystem.

The proposal provides discrete systematic objectives, with reasonable timelines. Quantifying impacts of hydrosystem operation will decrease the uncertainty about the effects of flow augmentation and load following, and will help optimize spillway discharge, make tradeoffs in alternative volume allocations, and forecast alternative watershed conditions. The investigators will file project reports and, if appropriate, publish in peer-reviewed journals. Also, they will explore making their results available in near real time, which would be of great value to managers of the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). However, they have not been very good about communicating their results in the past -- mainly a handful of project reports and proceedings.

The proposal could be improved by providing more details about the biological benefits and the adaptive management aspects. They talk about the need for a three-dimensional model but state they are going to use a two-dimensional model. Salmon are treated as passive particles, which can be problematic. There will be limits to how this can actually be applied.

Even with the limits of the fish components of this model, exploration of the physical components of the model will be useful. This effort should get better as time and knowledge progresses. For load following, they might need shorter duration than eight-hour periods. It is good that they are looking at this.

A better understanding of the dynamics of the hydrosystem and better control of temperature and dissolved gas enabled by these models would benefit both anadromous fish and non-focal species.

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