FY 2002 Mountain Snake proposal 198909803

Section 1. Administrative

Project location

Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)

Section 2. Past accomplishments

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget

Outyear objectives-based budget

Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget

Total estimated budget

Reason for change in estimated budget

Cost sharing of personell within the department

Reason for change in scope

No change in scope anticipated

Cost sharing

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Comment:

A response is needed for the set of Idaho Supplementation Study Projects.

Background

Supplementation of natural stocks is not a mandated mitigation objective, but has become an important part of the hatchery programs. Idaho has outplanted (i.e. off-site releases) over 5.5 million chinook fry, approximately 8 million smolts, and 8,000 adults into the Salmon River drainage since 1977 (IDFG et. Al. 1990). During the same period, over 17 million fry, 3 million smolts, and 2,000 adults were outplanted into the Clearwater River drainage (Nez Perce Tribe et. Al. 1990). In spite of widespread outplanting activities there has been little scientific evaluation of supplementation on rebuilding or influencing natural salmon populations both in Idaho and basin wide. Furthermore, despite these hatchery mitigation efforts, anadromous fish stocks in Idaho continued to decline.

The Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) spearheaded development of the Idaho Supplementation Studies (ISS) to address questions identified in the Supplementation Technical Work Group (STWG) Five Year Workplan (STWG 1988), as well as help define the potential role of supplementation in managing Idaho's anadromous fisheries and as a recovery tool for the basin. The goal of the Idaho Supplementation Studies is to evaluate various supplementation strategies for maintaining and rebuilding spring/summer chinook salmon populations in Idaho and to develop recommendations for using supplementation to rebuild naturally spawning populations.

Projects directly involved in the ISS are:

1. Project ID: 198909800. Idaho Supplementation Studies. Sponsor: Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Idaho Office of Species Conservation. Subbasin: Salmon.
2. Project ID: 198909801. Evaluate Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers (ISS). Sponsor: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Idaho Fishery Resource Office. Subbasin: Clearwater.
3. Project ID: 198909802. Evaluate Salmon Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers- Nez Perce Tribe. Sponsor: Nez Perce Tribe. Subbasin: Salmon.
4. Project ID: 198909803. Salmon Supplementation Studies in Idaho- Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. Sponsor: Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. Subbasin: Salmon
5. Project ID: 199005500. Steelhead Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers. Sponsor: Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Idaho Office of Species Conservation. Subbasin: Clearwater
6. Project ID: 199604300. Johnson Creek Artificial Propagation Enhancement Project. Sponsor: Nez Perce Tribe. Subbasin: Salmon.

ISS also coordinates field activities and data collection efforts with the Idaho Habitat/ Natural Production Monitoring project (199107300). ISS also coordinates with and transfers data to projects in the Salmon River subbasin including the Monitoring Smolt Migration of Wild Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon (199102800), Salmon River Habitat Enhancement (9405000), and Salmon River Production Program (199705700). ISS also works closely with the Lower Snake River Compensation Plan (LSRCP) to coordinate on hatchery supplementation treatments and evaluations.

Presently, there are eleven state and federal anadromous hatcheries operating in Idaho: Clearwater, Oxbow, Rapid River, McCall, Sawtooth, Pahsimeroi, Dworshak, Kooskia, Hagerman National, Niagara Springs, and Magic Valley. There are also three satellite rearing ponds: Powell, Red River, and Crooked River operated in conjunction with the Clearwater Hatchery. These hatcheries have the combined capacity to produce 8.5 million spring chinook smolts, 2 million summer chinook smolts, 6.7 million A-run steelhead O. mykiss smolts, and 4 million B-run steelhead smolts annually.

ISS Study Design

The ISS study design called for a minimum of 15 years (three generations) of research (Bowles and Leitzinger 1991). Sampling was initiated in 1991, and implementation began in 1992. Supplementation effects are monitored and evaluated by comparing juvenile production and survival, fecundity, age structure, and genetic structure and variability in treatment and control streams of similar ecological parameters.

Due to the large geographic scope of this study, study streams were partitioned among four resource management entities for implementation. These include Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Nez Perce Tribe, Shoshone-Bannock Tribe, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Idaho Fishery Resource Office. Allocations were based on interest, integration with ongoing programs, cost efficiency, logistics and, to a lesser extent, relative equity. Approximately one-half of the study will be implemented by Idaho Department of Fish and Game through the ISS contract with BPA. The Nez Perce Tribe and Shoshone-Bannock Tribe have similar commitments to ISS, each comprising approximately 20% of the study. Both of these components rely heavily on integration of existing or proposed tribal programs. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Idaho Fishery Resource Office implements about ten percent of the project. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game is the lead agency regarding project development, coordination, and implementation.

The ISS Experimental Design was completed and published in 1991. Baseline data collection and development of supplementation brood stocks (Phase I) began in 1991. Over a period of about five years, supplementation brood stocks were developed for seven hatchery trap/release locations as identified in the experimental design:

Artificial Production Facilities

1. Sawtooth Fish Hatchery - Upper Salmon River
2. Pahsimeroi Fish Hatchery - Pahsimeroi River
3. McCall Fish Hatchery - South Fork Salmon River
Clearwater Fish Hatchery Satellites
4. Crooked River
5. Red River
6. Powell (Colt-killed Creek)
7. Clear Creek - Kooskia National Fish Hatchery

As adult fish began to return from the Phase I supplementation brood stock juvenile releases, the project progressed into Phase II. Phase II utilizes the returning adults to supplement natural origin recruits in treatment streams and maintains supplementation brood stocks for juvenile production and release. Juvenile fish releases through brood year 1996 include 1,281,755 fish in the Clearwater River basin and 1,954,048 fish in the Salmon River basin.

This project is now transitioning from Phase II to Phase III, monitoring the effects of supplementation. In Phase III juvenile releases from supplementation brood stocks are eventually terminated, returning adults from prior juvenile releases are released to supplement spawning of natural origin recruits, and monitoring of production and productivity response variables in control and treatment streams continues. In 2000, juvenile releases were maintained at levels similar to releases in 1999.

Treatment (e.g. supplementation in general, supplementation with a particular life stage, supplementation with a particular brood source) effects will be tested directly by hypotheses. In general, treatments will be applied for one to two generations (5-10 years) following approximately one generation of pretreatment data. Population responses to supplementation will be monitored a minimum of one generation (5 years) following supplementation. It is important that the original study design be maintained. Reducing sample size (number of treatment streams) can potentially impair the sensitivity of the design. Reducing to five treatment streams provides only a 60% chance of detecting a 25% change in production, whereas we would still have over 95% chance of detecting a 50% change.

Related projects

Several additional projects are related to the ISS. The monitoring and evaluation portion of the Johnson Creek Artificial Propagation Enhancement project (199604300) conducts the juvenile emigration and survival, adult escapement (weir and spawning ground surveys), and genetic monitoring associated with the ISS project in Johnson Creek. The Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery Monitoring and Evaluation project (198335003) collects the data associated with the ISS project in Lolo Creek, Eldorado Creek, and Newsome Creeks in the Clearwater River subbasin. The Nez Perce Tribe Monitoring of Listed Stock Chinook Salmon Escapement project (BPA Number 199703000) operates a video camera and weir to passively monitor and enumerate adults returning to Lake Creek and upper Secesh River. This project collects data on adult abundance and migration timing of chinook salmon.

ISRP Preliminary Recommendations:

As initially planned, the Idaho Supplementation Study (ISS) was probably the best supplementation study among the Provinces. It should be continued, but the ISRP has a number of concerns that should be addressed while there is still time. This study addresses the critical issue of the efficacy of supplementation to restore populations and many resources have been committed to it. With the experimental design of the Yakima Hatchery in question (no wild/wild and no hatchery/hatchery controls), retaining the integrity of this experiment is crucial. It is important that the Idaho Supplementation Studies be completed following the original approved experimental design.

The most critical ISRP concerns are:

1. the effect of the loss of Johnson Creek (previously a control stream) from the experimental design, and
2. the effect of straying of hatchery fish into Lake Creek, the Secesh River, and other designated "controls".

As currently planned in project #199604300 "Johnson Creek Artificial Propagation Enhancement Project", Johnson Creek is neither a treatment nor a control stream in the ISS because the criteria for stopping supplementation has been changed and does not appear to match the timetable in the ISS. Supplementation activities in Johnson Creek should cease immediately for the duration of the ISS study design, allowing Johnson Creek to continue to be used as a 'control' stream, even given the recent limited supplementation of it. (Note: a portion of the 2001 returning jacks are the first returning fish from the limited Johnson Creek supplementation effort.)

To do minimal damage to the ISS study design, the ISRP recommends that Johnson Creek now be considered a control stream (at least by year class!) and that supplementation be stopped in Johnson Creek in accordance with the original timetable in the ISS. The number of wild returning adults we observed earlier this month spawning in Johnson Creek, and the number we are likely to observe next year, argue that supplementation of Johnson Creek is not needed as an emergency action for a declining stock at least through the duration of the ISS experiment.

As we understand the situation, the decision to remove Johnson Creek from the study was beyond the control of some proponents of the ISS project. Nevertheless, we find it unacceptable that the experimental design for study of such a critical issue as supplementation would be compromised by a decision to remove a control stream from the study. The only conclusion we can come to is that the proponents of the decision to remove Johnson Creek from the supplementation study believe that they already know the result, i.e., they believe supplementation works. A broad base of the scientific community is in extreme disagreement with this conclusion, and it is unacceptable that the best-designed study of supplementation would be compromised.

Other ISRP concerns: The proponents should list the initial control and treatment streams and the current treatments and controls. How has the overall design changed? What is the current timetable to stop supplementation in the treatment streams and to evaluate the effect on natural production? In the control streams, what effect do the straying rates have on the analysis? What would be the effect of changing Johnson Creek from a "control" to a "treatment" stream on the statistical power of the study?

The results of this project should help determine whether supplementation is a viable restoration strategy and as such should inform the RPA four-step safety net process.

There may be a need for ongoing input from an over-site committee with members outside those participating in the study to monitor the progress. Has this been planned for or considered?

Comment:

Comment:

Background

Supplementation of natural stocks is not a mandated mitigation objective, but has become an important part of the hatchery programs. Idaho has outplanted (i.e. off-site releases) over 5.5 million chinook fry, approximately 8 million smolts, and 8,000 adults into the Salmon River drainage since 1977 (IDFG et. al. 1990). During the same period, over 17 million fry, 3 million smolts, and 2,000 adults were outplanted into the Clearwater River drainage (Nez Perce Tribe et. al. 1990). In spite of widespread outplanting activities there has been little scientific evaluation of the efficacy of supplementation on rebuilding or influencing natural salmon populations both in Idaho and basin wide. Furthermore, despite these hatchery mitigation efforts, anadromous fish stocks in Idaho continued to decline.

The Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) spearheaded development of the Idaho Supplementation Studies (ISS) to address questions identified in the Supplementation Technical Work Group (STWG) Five Year Workplan (STWG 1988), as well as help define the potential role of supplementation in managing Idaho's anadromous fisheries and as a recovery tool for the basin. The goal of the Idaho Supplementation Studies is to evaluate various supplementation strategies for maintaining and rebuilding spring/summer chinook salmon and steelhead populations in Idaho and to develop recommendations for using supplementation to rebuild naturally spawning populations.

Projects directly involved in the ISS are:

1. Project ID 198909800. Idaho Supplementation Studies. Sponsor: Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Idaho Office of Species Conservation. Subbasin: Salmon.
2. Project ID 198909801. Evaluate Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers (ISS). Sponsor: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Idaho Fishery Resource Office. Subbasin: Clearwater.
3. Project ID 198909802. Evaluate Salmon Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers- Nez Perce Tribe. Sponsor: Nez Perce Tribe. Subbasin: Salmon.
4. Project ID 198909803. Salmon Supplementation Studies in Idaho- Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. Sponsor: Shoshone-Bannock Tribes. Subbasin: Salmon
5. Project ID 199005500. Steelhead Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers. Sponsor: Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Idaho Office of Species Conservation. Subbasin: Clearwater
6. Project ID 199604300. Johnson Creek Artificial Propagation Enhancement Project. Sponsor: Nez Perce Tribe Subbasin: Salmon.

Presently, there are eleven state and federal anadromous hatcheries operating in Idaho: Clearwater, Oxbow, Rapid River, McCall, Sawtooth, Pahsimeroi, Dworshak, Kooskia, Hagerman National, Niagara Springs, and Magic Valley. There are also three satellite rearing ponds: Powell, Red River, and Crooked River operated in conjunction with the Clearwater Hatchery. These hatcheries have the combined capacity to produce 8.5 million spring chinook smolts, 2 million summer chinook smolts, 6.7 million A-run steelhead O. mykiss smolts, and 4 million B-run steelhead smolts annually.

ISS Study Design

The ISS study design called for a minimum of 15 years (three generations) of research (Bowles and Leitzinger 1991). Sampling was initiated in 1991, and implementation began in 1992. Supplementation effects are monitored and evaluated by comparing juvenile production and survival, fecundity, age structure, and genetic structure and variability in treatment and control streams of similar ecological parameters.

Due to the large geographic scope of this study, study streams were partitioned among four resource management entities for implementation. These include Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Nez Perce Tribe, Shoshone-Bannock Tribe, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Idaho Fishery Resource Office. Allocations were based on interest, integration with ongoing programs, cost efficiency, logistics, and, to a lesser extent, relative equity. Approximately one-half of the study will be implemented by Idaho Department of Fish and Game through the ISS contract with BPA. The Nez Perce Tribe and Shoshone-Bannock Tribe have similar commitments to ISS, each comprising approximately 20% of the study. Both of these components rely heavily on integration of existing or proposed tribal programs. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Idaho Fishery Resource Office implements about ten percent of the project. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game is the lead agency regarding project development, coordination, and implementation.

The ISS Experimental Design was completed and published in 1991. Baseline data collection and development of supplementation brood stocks (Phase I) began in 1991. Over a period of about five years, supplementation brood stocks were developed for seven hatchery trap/release locations as identified in the experimental design:

Artificial Production Facilities

1. Sawtooth Fish Hatchery - Upper Salmon River
2. Pahsimeroi Fish Hatchery - Pahsimeroi River
3. McCall Fish Hatchery - South Fork Salmon River

Clearwater Fish Hatchery Satellites

4. Crooked River
5. Red River
6. Powell (Colt-killed Creek)
7. Clear Creek - Kooskia National Fish Hatchery

This project is now transitioning from Phase II to Phase III, monitoring the effects of supplementation. In Phase III juvenile releases from supplementation brood stocks are to be eventually terminated, returning adults from prior juvenile releases are released to supplement spawning of natural origin recruits, and monitoring of production and productivity response variables in control and treatment streams continues. In 2000, juvenile releases were maintained at levels similar to releases in 1999.

Treatment (e.g. supplementation in general, supplementation with a particular life stage, supplementation with a particular brood source) effects will be tested directly by hypotheses. In general, treatments will be applied for one to two generations (5-10 years) following approximately one generation of pretreatment data. Population responses to supplementation will be monitored a minimum of one generation (5 years) following supplementation. It is important that the original study design be maintained. Reducing sample size (number of treatment streams) can potentially impair the sensitivity of the design. Reducing to five treatment streams provides only a 60% chance of detecting a 25% change in production, whereas we would still have over 95% chance of detecting a 50% change.

Related projects

Several additional projects are related to the ISS. The monitoring and evaluation portion of the Johnson Creek Artificial Propagation Enhancement project (199604300) conducts the juvenile emigration and survival, adult escapement (weir and spawning ground surveys), and genetic monitoring associated with the ISS project in Johnson Creek. The Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery Monitoring and Evaluation project (198335003) collects the data associated with the ISS project in Lolo Creek, Eldorado Creek, and Newsome Creeks in the Clearwater River subbasin. The Nez Perce Tribe Monitoring of Listed Stock Chinook Salmon Escapement project (BPA Number 199703000) operates a video camera and weir to passively monitor and enumerate adults returning to Lake Creek and upper Secesh River. This project collects data on adult abundance and migration timing of chinook salmon.

ISRP Final Recommendation:

Not fundable until the ISRP concerns are adequately addressed. The experimental design has not been adhered to over the years and from the response to our preliminary review, the ISRP is not confident it will be in the future. In fact, the current experimental design is not adequately defined. There does not appear to be commitment to treatment durations, particularly to the Phase III portion of the study design, where supplementation ceases, so that treatment effects can be analyzed.

From communications that occurred during the ISRP site visit, it appears the project sponsors should be able to specify timelines for termination of the treatments for each treatment stream. A table needs to be developed for Phase III implementation that describes when the treatments will stop on a stream-by-stream basis. In the past, sponsors have not stuck with agreed upon control streams. How confounded are the treatment and control streams? This points to the need for submittal of a certified statistical design.

Projects 198909800 through 198909803 and 199005500 are fundable after adequately addressing the following constraints.

1. A written protocol for complete statistical analysis, certified by an independent statistician team should be presented to Council during the contracting period. The ISRP is not comfortable with the implications that "problems" with the study design can be "fixed" during the statistical analysis stage. Considerable thought and effort should be placed in planning the statistical analyses of these potentially controversial data before final decisions are made on criteria for stopping supplementation and before data are available.
2. The protocol for statistical analysis must indicate how straying of hatchery fish into "control streams" and "partial treatments" will be analyzed. For example, the response to the ISRP preliminary review indicated that the straying rate of hatchery fish into the Secesh River from 1996-2001 varied from 0.83% to 14.71%. This is in fact, de facto supplementation. It is unclear to the ISRP how partial treatment and de facto supplementation of control streams will be addressed in the statistical analysis of the ISS.
3. Development of a specific stream-by-stream protocol and timetable for implementation of Phase III of the ISS. Included in this is the immediate cessation of supplementation activities in Johnson Creek (see comments below on proposal 199604300) and inclusion of Johnson Creek once again as a control stream in the ISS experimental design.

Comment:

Comments
Supplementation of natural stocks has become an important part of the hatchery programs. However, in spite of widespread outplanting activities there has been little scientific evaluation of supplementation on rebuilding or influencing natural salmon populations. The results of these projects should help determine whether supplementation is a viable restoration strategy, a subject which NMFS is currently researching.

Already ESA Req? No

Biop? Yes

Comment:

BPA RPA RPM:
182, 184

NMFS RPA/USFWS RPM:
182, 184

Comment:

Comment:

Comment:

Comment:

Comment:

Sponsor comments: See comment at Council's website