FY 2001 Ongoing proposal 198910800

Additional documents


Section 1. Administrative

Proposal titleMonitor and Evaluate Modeling Support
Proposal ID198910800
OrganizationUniversity of Washington (UW)
Proposal contact person or principal investigator
NameJames J. Anderson
Mailing address1325 - 4th Ave., Suite 1820 Seattle, WA 98101
Phone / email2065434772 / jim@fish.washington.edu
Manager authorizing this projectJim Geiselman, BPA
Review cycleFY 2001 Ongoing
Province / SubbasinSystemwide / Mainstem Columbia
Short descriptionDevelop models and analyses to test hypotheses underlying key salmon recovery management decisions, apply decision analysis to evaluate alternative management strategies, and assist in designing research, monitoring and adaptive management experiments.
Target species
Project location
Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs)



Relevant RPAs based on NMFS/BPA review:

Reviewing agencyAction #BiOp AgencyDescription

Section 2. Past accomplishments

1995 The Mainstem passage and Adult Harvest models, CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2 were completed and calibrated. Theory and calibration manuals were prepared.
Participated in in-season database development. Began analyzing the impact of ocean conditions on smolt survival.
1996 Revised and recalibrated CRiSP.1 and CRiSP.2. Successfully ported CRiSP.2 from Unix platform to Windows 95, making it more accessible to the public. Revised manuals for both models.
Expanded our in-season database that gave regional fisheries community real-time access to river and fish passage conditions through the World Wide Web. Provided real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks at sites
in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Published daily predictions on the World Wide Web. Continued the impact of ocean analysis.
1997 Improved DART web database. Completed manual update for CRiSP.2 for the on-line help. Released CRiSP.2 Windows NT/95 and an alpha version of CRiSP.1 for Windows NT/95.
Continued a combined effort between CRiSP and Real-Time (developed under Dr. John Skalski) to provide real-time projections of fish passage for various stocks. Implemented web based gas predictions for in-season management of the
impacts of the hydrosystem on gas levels in the river.
1998 Added new gas mortality algorithms to the CRiSP1.6 smolt passage model. Updated the survival calibration tool for CRiSP 1.6. Updated in-season and post-season analyses.
Maintained and monitored Columbia Basin Research (CBR) web pages and answered requested information from the public as they are received.
1999 Completed development and calibration of CRiSP1.6 model. Updated user's manual for CRiSP1.6 and made it accessible to the public (www.cbr.washington.edu).
Continued to publish daily predictions of gas levels and smolt passage on the web page (www.cbr.washington.edu).
Began development of CRiSP1.7 to include smolt growth algorithms.
Updated PIT-Tag datafiles for calibrations.
Performed in-season analysis including pre-season forecasts, updating in-season migration & post-season analysis. Provided World Wide Web access to our literature database, including a searchable index of reports, papers, and
other technical documents relevant to salmon issues in the Pacific Northwest. Provided support to PATH analyses. Continued to answer numerous questions received from the public.
Released user manual for the CRiSP 1.6 passage model.
Updated COAST Harvest life cycle model as replacement for the CRiSP 2 harvest model.
Provided analysis of the impact of harvest on endangered stocks using the COAST harvest model.
Published scientific paper on growth and emergence of salmon fry. North American J. of Aquaculture, 61: 126-134. 1999.
Published a paper relating fish and fleet behavior to fishery stability. Natural Resource Modeling, 12(2). 1999.
2000 Published paper on vitality based survival model. Ecological Monographs, 71(2) 2000.
Published a chapter in the book. Chapter's title: Decadal Climate Cycles and Declining Columbia River Salmon. CRC Press 2000.
Developed and improved tools for database analysis javaDART (http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/javadart/index.html).
Released Theory Calibration manual for CRiSP passage model.
Submitted for publication a paper on the effects of temperature on spawning success.

Section 3. Relationships to other projects

Project IDTitleDescription

Section 4. Budget for Planning and Design phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2001 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Planning and Design phase

Section 5. Budget for Construction and Implementation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2001 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Construction and Implementation phase

Section 6. Budget for Operations and Maintenance phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2001 costSubcontractor
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Operations and Maintenance phase

Section 7. Budget for Monitoring and Evaluation phase

Task-based budget
ObjectiveTaskDuration in FYsEstimated 2001 costSubcontractor
1. Juvenile passage a. CRiSP 1.7 smolt passage model $25,000
b. Migration rate analysis publication $25,000
c. Analysis and publication of drawdown using individual-based model (IBM) $25,000
d. Analysis and publication of smolt growth dynamics $25,000
e. Publication of effects of flow on smolt survival $25,000
2. Adult passage a. Model upstream passage including harvest and straying as factors $25,000
b. Application of upstream model for in-season analysis $25,000
3. Smolt estuary passage a. Begin development of individual-based model of smolt movement in estuary. $35,000
b. Apply existing estuary hydrodynamic model to estuary IBM $25,000
4. Fry emergence model a. Complete publication of spawning/emergence dynamics paper for Methow River $15,000
b. Apply the spawning/emergence model to Snake River chinook $30,000
5. In-Season analysis a. Preseason forecast $30,000
b. In-season forecast $30,000
c. Post-season analysis $30,000
6. Life cycle/Harvest model a. Graduate student begins study to model ocean variability in harvest model $25,000
b. Begin development of fish conditions and genetic characteristics in model $30,000
c. Develop hatchery-wild fish genetic interaction in model $30,000
d. Evaluate interaction of hatcheries and wild stocks in terms of genetics and harvest $25,000
7. Disease Modeling a. Publication of analysis of thesis work on disease $20,000
b. Develop protocols for experiments on disease management $25,000
8. Support ESA & NPPC processes a. CRI support and review $40,000
b. EDT support and review $25,000
9. Project support a. Computer system support $50,000
b. Information support $35,000
c. Project management $85,000
Outyear objectives-based budget
ObjectiveStarting FYEnding FYEstimated cost
Outyear budgets for Monitoring and Evaluation phase
FY 2004FY 2005FY 2002FY 2003

Section 8. Estimated budget summary

Itemized budget
ItemNoteFY 2001 cost
Personnel FTE: 12 mo. salaries for PI, adm. asst., 3 scientists, 2gradstds, system adm, computer support, programmer $397,000
Fringe Standard UW benefit rates $88,000
Supplies $20,000
Travel Trips to attend meetings in Oregon & other regional conferences. $5,000
Indirect 26% of Modified total direct costs $140,000
Other Services, Lease, & Tuition fees for 6 quarters $110,000
Total estimated budget
Total FY 2001 cost$760,000
Amount anticipated from previously committed BPA funds$0
Total FY 2001 budget request$760,000
FY 2001 forecast from 2000$763,000
% change from forecast-0.4%
Reason for change in estimated budget

Previous funding for FY2000 was spread over three contracts. These are combined into one contract for FY 2001 resulting in savings.

Cost sharing
OrganizationItem or service providedAmountCash or in-kind

Reviews and recommendations

This information was not provided on the original proposals, but was generated during the review process.

Ongoing Funding: no; New Funding: no
Jul 14, 2000


The previous funding for FY 2000 was spread over three contracts. These are combined into one contract for FY 2001 resulting in savings.

The NWPPC has decided to stop funding PATH related projects. This is a PATH project and should not be funded to remain consistent with the NWPPC's recommendation for tribal, state and federal agency participation in PATH.

This project fails to inform critical management decisions. It should include such services as a part of other projects tied to specific tasks or products. This project should not be funded as part of the Fish and Wildlife Program since it is not subject to the same standards of the regional review process.

Combine into Technical Support Program
Sep 8, 2000


BPA proposes combining many of the tasks associated with these projects into what is now referred to as the Technical Support Project. Funding for specific tasks would not be associated with a specific project in the Council's Direct Program. The Technical Support Project would provide analytical capabilities and analyses needed for fish mitigation and fish impact assessments required of BPA and other federal agencies for compliance with ESA, NEPA, the NW Power Act, and the Clean Water Act. It provides critical analyses needed for management decisions on both a real-time and planning horizon basis and an assessment of the implications of those decisions. Much of this work is currently both direct and indirect support for ESA Biological Assessments and Biological Opinion (BO) consultations, and compliance with multiple analytical, research, and monitoring RPAs of the BO. Parallel analytical work is performed to support our oversight, coordination, and implementation responsibilities for the regional Fish and Wildlife Program. Following is a list of Technical Support Project tasks that BPA believes may be required during FY01 and estimated costs.


Participation, critical review, and coordination with NMFS CRI analyses


Participation, critical review and coordination with NPPC EDT analyses


Juvenile and adult fish passage modeling development, application, and data support


Conservation biology /extinction risk applications for recovery plans


Hydro measures assessments


Habitat measures and watershed assessments


Hatchery and harvest measures assessments


One-year and five-year Action Plan development and review


Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Plan development/evaluation


Management framework and performance measures development and application


BiOp consultation and review


Record of Decision development and review


Regional scientific forums/workgroups participation and coordination


Life-cycle modeling


Program integration and assessment of progress toward meeting mitigation and recovery goals


TOTAL $1,200,000

Do Not Fund
Sep 13, 2000


Bonneville will fund any future contracts from technical support placeholder