BPA Fish and Wildlife FY 1997 Proposal

Section 1. Administrative
Section 2. Narrative
Section 3. Budget

see CBFWA and BPA funding recommendations

Section 1. Administrative

Title of project
Effects of Ocean Conditions on the Growth of Salmonids As Estimated by Scales of Adult Salmonids Sampled at Bonneville Dam

BPA project number   5506200

Business name of agency, institution or organization requesting funding
Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission

Sponsor type   CRITFC

Proposal contact person or principal investigator

BPA technical contact   , EWI

Biological opinion ID   

NWPPC Program number   

Short description
This project will correlate growth of salmonids, as measured by scales collected at Bonneville Dam between 1985 and 1995, with measures of ocean productivity and salmonid abundance to better assess the contribution of ocean conditions to the low abundances in recent years.

Project start year   1997    End year   1998

Start of operation and/or maintenance   0

Project development phase   

Section 2. Narrative

Related projects
Planning, Implementation

Project history

Biological results achieved

Annual reports and technical papers

Management implications

Specific measureable objectives
Parameters of ocean production which correlate with salmonid growth and abundance

Testable hypothesis
Ocean scale patterns of Columbia Basin salmonids can be used to
1. Explain run size and fish size variability.
2. Refine jack and other run size predictors based on ocean growth.
3. Identify whether different Columbia River salmon stocks are experiencing the same or different ocean conditions.

Underlying assumptions or critical constraints
1. Salmonid abundance and growth are both influenced by ocean conditions.
2. Ocean growing conditions are reflected in scales.

Methods
1.) Equipment used will be a scale digitizing system (either our present 12 year-old OPRS system or an upgraded system) attached to a computer. Scales to be measured will come from spring chinook and sockeye salmon scales collected by CRITFC at Bonneville Dam from 1985-1997. Additional years of scales may be obtained from ODFW collections from commercial fisheries. Scales from each major age group will be measured (ages 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 for spring chinook salmon, and ages 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.2, and 1.3 for sockeye salmon). Distances will be measured from the scale focus to each circuli out to the edge of the scale. As well, distances to the outermost edge of each annuli, saltwater entry, and scale edge will be noted.
2.) Correlation coefficients will be the primary statistic used in analyzing the data. Ocean growth will be correlated with run sizes and fish lengths. Regression techniques will be used to incorporate ocean growth into run prediction models. Linear discriminant analysis and correlation coefficients will be used to test for stock-specific differences in saltwater growth. Distances to annuli, saltwater entry, and scale edge will be fitted to the models of Weisberg (1993) to estimate the age, year, and (agexyear) effect on scale growth for each species. Measures of ocean growth will be correlated to indices of ocean productivity (such as indices of upwelling off the Washington coast or the intensity of the Aleutian low pressure system).
3.) Desired sample sizes are 100 fish from each age group for each species for each year. However, small sample sizes for particular age groups in some years will mean that this goal will not always be attained. The total number of scales to be measured is estimated to be approximately 12,000.

Brief schedule of activities
October 1, 1996 to December 31, 1996 Project Planning
January 1, 1997 to October 31, 1997 Scale Measuring
November 1, 1997 to February 28, 1998 Data Analysis
March 1, 1998 to April 15, 1998 Report writing
April 16, 1998 to May 15, 1998 Report Review
June 30, 1998 Report publication

Biological need
To adequately assess the impact of management actions designed to increase salmonid abundance, it is necessary to understand the impact of ocean productivity on salmonid growth and survival. Improved run-size predictors will allow for better management of fisheries on the return migration.

Critical uncertainties
The role of ocean productivity on salmonid growth and survival.

Summary of expected outcome
A determination of the role changing ocean conditions have on salmonid growth and abundance as well as tools which may be useful in the future in determining these parameters. These tools can be used as an aid in determining how much effect ocean conditions have on other studies.

Dependencies/opportunities for cooperation
Availability of scales from ODFW, if needed.

Risks
None

Monitoring activity
If significant correlations are found between ocean growth and salmon abundance, measurements of ocean growth may be incorporated into existing monitoring programs.

Section 3. Budget

* For most projects, Authorized is the amount recommended by CBFWA and the Council. Planned is amount currently allocated. Contracted is the amount obligated to date of printout.

Funding recommendations

CBFWA funding review group   System Policy

Recommendation    Tier 2 - fund when funds available

Recommended funding level   $47,220